A decision-theoretic characterization of perfect calibration is that an agent seeking to minimize a proper loss in expectation cannot improve their outcome by post-processing a perfectly calibrated predictor. Hu and Wu (FOCS’24) use this to define an approximate calibration measure called calibration decision loss (CDL), which measures the maximal improvement achievable by any post-processing over any proper loss. Unfortunately, CDL turns out to be intractable to even weakly approximate in the offline setting, given black-box access to the predictions and labels.

Professional networks provide invaluable entree to opportunity through referrals and introductions. A rich literature shows they also serve to entrench and even exacerbate a status quo of privilege and disadvantage. Hiring platforms, equipped with the ability to nudge link formation, provide a tantalizing opening for beneficial structural change. We anticipate that key to this prospect will be the ability to estimate the likelihood of edge formation in an evolving graph. Outcome-indistinguishable prediction algorithms ensure that the modeled world is indistinguishable from the real world by a family of statistical tests. Omnipredictors ensure that predictions can be post-processed to yield loss minimization competitive with respect to a benchmark class of predictors for many losses simultaneously, with appropriate post-processing. We begin by observing that, by combining a slightly modified form of the online K29* algorithm of Vovk (2007) with basic facts from the theory of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, one can derive simple and efficient online algorithms satisfying outcome indistinguishability and omniprediction, with guarantees that improve upon, or are complementary to, those currently known. This is of independent interest; for example, we obtain efficient outcome indistinguishability for some interesting infinite collections of tests, as well as for any bounded function — including those computable by deep (graph) neural networks. We apply these techniques to evolving graphs by designing efficient kernel functions that capture socially meaningful features of nodes and their neighborhoods. We obtain online outcome-indistinguishable omnipredictors for rich — possibly infinite — sets of distinguishers yielding, inter alia, multicalibrated predictions of edge formation with respect to pairs of demographic groups, and the ability to simultaneously optimize loss as measured by a variety of social welfare functions.

We identify and explore connections between the recent literature on multi-group fairness for prediction algorithms and the pseudorandomness notions of leakage-resilience and graph regularity. We frame our investigation using new, statistical distance-based variants of multicalibration that are closely related to the concept of outcome indistinguishability. Adopting this perspective leads us naturally not only to our graph theoretic results, but also to new, more efficient algorithms for multicalibration in certain parameter regimes and a novel proof of a hardcore lemma for real-valued functions.

In this work, we give efficient algorithms for privately estimating a Gaussian distribution in both pure and approximate differential privacy (DP) models with optimal dependence on the dimension in the sample complexity.