Seasonal-trend decomposition based on loess (STL) is a powerful tool to explore time series data visually. In this article, we present an extension of STL to uncertain data, named uncertainty-aware STL (UASTL). Our method propagates multivariate Gaussian distributions mathematically exactly through the entire analysis and visualization pipeline. Thereby, stochastic quantities shared between the components of the decomposition are preserved. Moreover, we present application scenarios with uncertainty modeling based on Gaussian processes, e.g., data with uncertain areas or missing values. Besides these mathematical results and modeling aspects, we introduce visualization techniques that address the challenges of uncertainty visualization and the problem of visualizing highly correlated components of a decomposition. The global uncertainty propagation enables the time series visualization with STL-consistent samples, the exploration of correlation between and within decomposition's components, and the analysis of the impact of varying uncertainty. Finally, we show the usefulness of UASTL and the importance of uncertainty visualization with several examples. Thereby, a comparison with conventional STL is performed.

The datasets of most image quality assessment studies contain ratings on a categorical scale with five levels, from bad (1) to excellent (5). For each stimulus, the number of ratings from 1 to 5 is summarized and given in the form of the mean opinion score. In this study, we investigate families of multinomial probability distributions parameterized by mean and variance that are used to fit the empirical rating distributions. To this end, we consider quantized metric models based on continuous distributions that model perceived stimulus quality on a latent scale. The probabilities for the rating categories are determined by quantizing the corresponding random variables using threshold values. Furthermore, we introduce a novel discrete maximum entropy distribution for a given mean and variance. We compare the performance of these models and the state of the art given by the generalized score distribution for two large data sets, KonIQ-10k and VQEG HDTV. Given an input distribution of ratings, our fitted two-parameter models predict unseen ratings better than the empirical distribution. In contrast to empirical distributions of absolute category ratings and their discrete models, our continuous models can provide fine-grained estimates of quantiles of quality of experience that are relevant to service providers to satisfy a certain fraction of the user population.

We present an extension of multidimensional scaling (MDS) to uncertain data, facilitating uncertainty visualization of multidimensional data. Our approach uses local projection operators that map high-dimensional random vectors to low-dimensional space to formulate a generalized stress. In this way, our generic model supports arbitrary distributions and various stress types. We use our uncertainty-aware multidimensional scaling (UAMDS) concept to derive a formulation for the case of normally distributed random vectors and a squared stress. The resulting minimization problem is numerically solved via gradient descent. We complement UAMDS by additional visualization techniques that address the sensitivity and trustworthiness of dimensionality reduction under uncertainty. With several examples, we demonstrate the usefulness of our approach and the importance of uncertainty-aware techniques.

Nonlinear programming targets nonlinear optimization with constraints, which is a generic yet complex methodology involving humans for problem modeling and algorithms for problem solving. We address the particularly hard challenge of supporting domain experts in handling, understanding, and trouble-shooting high-dimensional optimization with a large number of constraints. Leveraging visual analytics, users are supported in exploring the computation process of nonlinear constraint optimization. Our system was designed for robot motion planning problems and developed in tight collaboration with domain experts in nonlinear programming and robotics. We report on the experiences from this design study, illustrate the usefulness for relevant example cases, and discuss the extension to visual analytics for nonlinear programming in general.