Given the risks and cost of hospitalization, there has been significant interest in exploiting machine learning models to improve perioperative care. However, due to the high dimensionality and noisiness of perioperative data, it remains a challenge to develop accurate and robust encoding for surgical predictions. Furthermore, it is important for the encoding to be interpretable by perioperative care practitioners to facilitate their decision making process. We proposeclinical variational autoencoder (cVAE), a deep latent variable model that addresses the challenges of surgical applications through two salient features. (1) To overcome performance limitations of traditional VAE, it isprediction-guided with explicit expression of predicted outcome in the latent representation. (2) Itdisentangles the latent space so that it can be interpreted in a clinically meaningful fashion. We apply cVAE to two real-world perioperative datasets to evaluate its efficacy and performance in predicting outcomes that are important to perioperative care, including postoperative complication and surgery duration. To demonstrate the generality and facilitate reproducibility, we also apply cVAE to the open MIMIC-III dataset for predicting ICU duration and mortality. Our results show that the latent representation provided by cVAE leads to superior performance in classification, regression and multi-task predictions. The two features of cVAE are mutually beneficial and eliminate the need of a predictor. We further demonstrate the interpretability of the disentangled representation and its capability to capture intrinsic characteristics of hospitalized patients. While this work is motivated by and evaluated in the context of clinical applications, the proposed approach may be generalized for other fields using high-dimensional and noisy data and valuing interpretable representations.

OBJECTIVE: Accurate estimations of surgical case durations can lead to the cost-effective utilization of operating rooms. We developed a novel machine learning approach, using both structured and unstructured features as input, to predict a continuous probability distribution of surgical case durations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The data set consisted of 53 783 surgical cases performed over 4 years at a tertiary-care pediatric hospital. Features extracted included categorical (American Society of Anesthesiologists [ASA] Physical Status, inpatient status, day of week), continuous (scheduled surgery duration, patient age), and unstructured text (procedure name, surgical diagnosis) variables. A mixture density network (MDN) was trained and compared to multiple tree-based methods and a Bayesian statistical method. A continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a generalized extension of mean absolute error, was the primary performance measure. Pinball loss (PL) was calculated to assess accuracy at specific quantiles. Performance measures were additionally evaluated on common and rare surgical procedures. Permutation feature importance was measured for the best performing model. RESULTS: MDN had the best performance, with a CRPS of 18.1 minutes, compared to tree-based methods (19.5-22.1 minutes) and the Bayesian method (21.2 minutes). MDN had the best PL at all quantiles, and the best CRPS and PL for both common and rare procedures. Scheduled duration and procedure name were the most important features in the MDN. CONCLUSIONS: Using natural language processing of surgical descriptors, we demonstrated the use of ML approaches to predict the continuous probability distribution of surgical case durations. The more discerning forecast of the ML-based MDN approach affords opportunities for guiding intelligent schedule design and day-of-surgery operational decisions.