Abstract Shielding is a prominent model-based technique to ensure safety of autonomous agents. Classical shielding aims to ensure that nothing bad ever happens and comes with strong guarantees about safety and maximal permissiveness. However, shielding systems for probabilistic safety, where something bad is allowed to happen with an acceptable probability, has proven to be more intricate. This paper presents a formal framework that conservatively extends classical shields to probabilistic safety. In this framework, we (i) demonstrate the impossibility of preserving the strong guarantees on safety and permissiveness, (ii) provide natural shields with weaker guarantees, and (iii) introduce offline and online shield constructions ensuring strong safety guarantees. The empirical evaluation highlights the practical advantages of the new shields, as well as their computational feasibility.

Abstract This paper marries two state-of-the-art controller synthesis methods for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), a prominent model in sequential decision making under uncertainty. A central issue is to find a POMDP controller—that solely decides based on the observations seen so far—to achieve a total expected reward objective. As finding optimal controllers is undecidable, we concentrate on synthesising good finite-state controllers (FSCs). We do so by tightly integrating two modern, orthogonal methods for POMDP controller synthesis: a belief-based and an inductive approach. The former method obtains an FSC from a finite fragment of the so-called belief MDP, an MDP that keeps track of the probabilities of equally observable POMDP states. The latter is an inductive search technique over a set of FSCs, e.g., controllers with a fixed memory size. The key result of this paper is a symbiotic anytime algorithm that tightly integrates both approaches such that each profits from the controllers constructed by the other. Experimental results indicate a substantial improvement in the value of the controllers while significantly reducing the synthesis time and memory footprint.

Abstract Markov decision processes (MDPs) describe decision making subject to probabilistic uncertainty. A classical problem on MDPs is to compute a policy, selecting actions in every state, that maximizes the probability of reaching a dedicated set of target states. Computing such policies in tabular form is efficiently possible via standard algorithms. However, for further processing by either humans or machines, policies should be represented concisely, e.g., as a decision tree. This paper considers finding (almost) optimal decision trees of minimal depth and contributes a deductive synthesis approach. Technically, we combine pruning the space of concise policies with an abstraction-refinement loop with an SMT-encoding that maps candidate policies into decision trees. Our experiments show that this approach beats the state-of-the-art solver using an MILP encoding by orders of magnitude. The approach also pairs well with heuristic approaches that map a fixed policy into a decision tree: for an MDP with 1.5M states, our approach reduces the size of the given tree by 90%, while sacrificing only 1% of the optimal performance.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) model specific environments in sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Critically, optimal policies for POMDPs may not be robust against perturbations in the environment. Hidden-model POMDPs (HM-POMDPs) capture sets of different environment models, that is, POMDPs with a shared action and observation space. The intuition is that the true model is hidden among a set of potential models, and it is unknown which model will be the environment at execution time. A policy is robust for a given HM-POMDP if it achieves sufficient performance for each of its POMDPs. We compute such robust policies by combining two orthogonal techniques: (1) a deductive formal verification technique that supports tractable robust policy evaluation by computing a worst-case POMDP within the HM-POMDP, and (2) subgradient ascent to optimize the candidate policy for a worst-case POMDP. The empirical evaluation shows that, compared to various baselines, our approach (1) produces policies that are more robust and generalize better to unseen POMDPs, and (2) scales to HM-POMDPs that consist of over a hundred thousand environments.

We study decision making policies in Markov decision processes (MDPs). Two key performance indicators of such policies are their value and their interpretability. On the one hand, policies that optimize value can be efficiently computed via a plethora of standard methods. However, the representation of these policies may prevent their interpretability. On the other hand, policies with good interpretability, such as policies represented by a small decision tree, are computationally hard to obtain. This paper contributes a local search approach to find policies with good value, represented by small decision trees. Our local search symbiotically combines learning decision trees from value-optimal policies with symbolic approaches that optimize the size of the decision tree within a constrained neighborhood. Our empirical evaluation shows that this combination provides drastically smaller decision trees for MDPs that are significantly larger than what can be handled by optimal decision tree learners.

Dealing with aleatoric uncertainty is key in many domains involving sequential decision making, e.g., planning in AI, network protocols, and symbolic program synthesis. This paper presents a general-purpose model-based framework to obtain policies operating in uncertain environments in a fully automated manner. The new concept of coloured Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) enables a succinct representation of a wide range of synthesis problems. A coloured MDP describes a collection of possible policy configurations with their structural dependencies. The framework covers the synthesis of (a) programmatic policies from probabilistic program sketches and (b) finite-state controllers representing policies for partially observable MDPs (POMDPs), including decentralised POMDPs as well as constrained POMDPs. We show that all these synthesis problems can be cast as exploring memoryless policies in the corresponding coloured MDP. This exploration uses a symbiosis of two orthogonal techniques: abstraction refinement—using a novel refinement method—and counter-example generalisation. Our approach outperforms dedicated synthesis techniques on some problems and significantly improves an earlier version of this framework.

BACKGROUND: Stochastic models are commonly employed in the system and synthetic biology to study the effects of stochastic fluctuations emanating from reactions involving species with low copy-numbers. Many important models feature complex dynamics, involving a state-space explosion, stiffness, and multimodality, that complicate the quantitative analysis needed to understand their stochastic behavior. Direct numerical analysis of such models is typically not feasible and generating many simulation runs that adequately approximate the model's dynamics may take a prohibitively long time. RESULTS: We propose a new memoization technique that leverages a population-based abstraction and combines previously generated parts of simulations, called segments, to generate new simulations more efficiently while preserving the original system's dynamics and its diversity. Our algorithm adapts online to identify the most important abstract states and thus utilizes the available memory efficiently. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate that in combination with a novel fully automatic and adaptive hybrid simulation scheme, we can speed up the generation of trajectories significantly and correctly predict the transient behavior of complex stochastic systems.

Abstract This paper marries two state-of-the-art controller synthesis methods for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), a prominent model in sequential decision making under uncertainty. A central issue is to find a POMDP controller—that solely decides based on the observations seen so far—to achieve a total expected reward objective. As finding optimal controllers is undecidable, we concentrate on synthesising good finite-state controllers (FSCs). We do so by tightly integrating two modern, orthogonal methods for POMDP controller synthesis: a belief-based and an inductive approach. The former method obtains an FSC from a finite fragment of the so-called belief MDP, an MDP that keeps track of the probabilities of equally observable POMDP states. The latter is an inductive search technique over a set of FSCs, e.g., controllers with a fixed memory size. The key result of this paper is a symbiotic anytime algorithm that tightly integrates both approaches such that each profits from the controllers constructed by the other. Experimental results indicate a substantial improvement in the value of the controllers while significantly reducing the synthesis time and memory footprint.

We present a novel learning framework to obtain finite-state controllers (FSCs) for partially observable Markov decision processes and illustrate its applicability for indefinite-horizon specifications. Our framework builds on oracle-guided inductive synthesis to explore a design space compactly representing available FSCs. The inductive synthesis approach consists of two stages: The outer stage determines the design space, i.e., the set of FSC candidates, while the inner stage efficiently explores the design space. This framework is easily generalisable and shows promising results when compared to existing approaches. Experiments indicate that our technique is (i) competitive to state-of-the-art belief-based approaches for indefinite-horizon properties, (ii) yields smaller FSCs than existing methods for several POMDP models, and (iii) naturally treats multi-objective specifications.

Abstract This paper presents PAYNT, a tool to automatically synthesise probabilistic programs. PAYNT enables the synthesis of finite-state probabilistic programs from a program sketch representing a finite family of program candidates. A tight interaction between inductive oracle-guided methods with state-of-the-art probabilistic model checking is at the heart of PAYNT. These oracle-guided methods effectively reason about all possible candidates and synthesise programs that meet a given specification formulated as a conjunction of temporal logic constraints and possibly including an optimising objective. We demonstrate the performance and usefulness of PAYNT using several case studies from different application domains; e.g., we find the optimal randomized protocol for network stabilisation among 3M potential programs within minutes, whereas alternative approaches would need days to do so.

Abstract This paper presents a novel method for the automated synthesis of probabilistic programs. The starting point is a program sketch representing a finite family of finite-state Markov chains with related but distinct topologies, and a reachability specification. The method builds on a novel inductive oracle that greedily generates counter-examples (CEs) for violating programs and uses them to prune the family. These CEs leverage the semantics of the family in the form of bounds on its best- and worst-case behaviour provided by a deductive oracle using an MDP abstraction. The method further monitors the performance of the synthesis and adaptively switches between inductive and deductive reasoning. Our experiments demonstrate that the novel CE construction provides a significantly faster and more effective pruning strategy leading to an accelerated synthesis process on a wide range of benchmarks. For challenging problems, such as the synthesis of decentralized partially-observable controllers, we reduce the run-time from a day to minutes.