Most start-ups fail, and early-stage ventures face even lower survival rates. Identifying high-potential start-ups remains a critical challenge for venture capital (VC) investors and policymakers. While predictive models exist, the evolving relationships between VC investors, start-ups, and management teams in dynamic networks are underexplored. We propose a method to predict whether a start-up will succeed within 5 years of its first funding round. Using a 40-year global VC dataset, we model the VC ecosystem as a dynamic bipartite network linking start-ups to individuals (investors/managers). Our approach incrementally updates graph embeddings through unsupervised self-attention to incorporate new nodes, edges, and their neighbors. Node embeddings are further fine-tuned via link prediction and classification tasks, while temporal dependencies are captured to form sequential representations. The model identifies early-stage start-ups with twice the success likelihood of those chosen by professional investors. Key factors including networking and education align with VC literature. Additionally, we provide model complexity analysis and open source our implementation to support practical applications and future research.

Large language models (LLMs) are gaining increasing interests to improve clinical efficiency, owing to their unprecedented performance in modelling natural language.Ensuring the reliable clinical applications, the evaluation of LLMs indeed becomes critical for better mitigating the potential risks, e.g., hallucinations.However, current evaluation methods heavily rely on labor-intensive human participation to achieve human-preferred judgements.To overcome this challenge, we propose an automatic evaluation paradigm tailored to assess the LLMs' capabilities in delivering clinical services, e.g., disease diagnosis and treatment.The evaluation paradigm contains three basic elements: metric, data, and algorithm.Specifically, inspired by professional clinical practice pathways, we formulate a LLM-specific clinical pathway (LCP) to define the clinical capabilities that a doctor agent should possess.Then, Standardized Patients (SPs) from the medical education are introduced as the guideline for collecting medical data for evaluation, which can well ensure the completeness of the evaluation procedure.Leveraging these steps, * Equal Contribution.

Many recommender systems optimize click through rates (CTRs) as one of their core goals, and it further breaks down to predicting each item's click probability for a user (user-item click probability) and recommending the top ones to this particular user. User-item click probability is then estimated as a single term, and the basic assumption is that the user has different preferences over items. This is presumably true, but from real-world data, we observe that some people are naturally more active in clicking on items while some are not. This intrinsic tendency contributes to their user-item click probabilities. Besides this, when a user sees a particular item she likes, the click probability for this item increases due to this user-item preference.

Uplift modeling is widely used in performance marketing to estimate effects of promotion campaigns (e.g., increase of customer retention rate). Since it is impossible to observe outcomes of a recipient in treatment (e.g., receiving a certain promotion) and control (e.g., without promotion) groups simultaneously (i.e., counter-factual), uplift models are mainly trained on instances of treatment and control groups separately to form two models respectively, and uplifts are predicted by the difference of predictions from these two models (i.e., two-model method). When responses are noisy and the treatment effect is fractional, induced individual uplift predictions will be inaccurate, resulting in targeting undesirable customers. Though it is impossible to obtain the ideal ground-truth individual uplifts, known as Individual Treatment Effects (ITEs), alternatively, an average uplift of a group of users, called Average Treatment Effect (ATE), can be observed from experimental deliveries. Upon this, similar to Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) in which each training sample is a bag of instances, our framework sums up individual user uplift predictions for each bag of users as its bag-wise ATE prediction, and regularizes it to its ATE label, thus learning more accurate individual uplifts. Additionally, to amplify the fractional treatment effect, bags are composed of instances with adjacent individual uplift predictions, instead of random instances. Experiments conducted on two datasets show the effectiveness and universality of the proposed framework.