As cryptocurrencies gain popularity and credibility, marketplaces for cryptocurrencies are growing in importance. Understanding the dynamics of these markets can help to assess how viable the cryptocurrnency ecosystem is and how design choices affect market behavior. One existential threat to cryptocurrencies is dramatic fluctuations in traders' willingness to buy or sell. Using a novel experimental methodology, we conducted an online experiment to study how susceptible traders in these markets are to peer influence from trading behavior. We created bots that executed over one hundred thousand trades costing less than a penny each in 217 cryptocurrencies over the course of six months. We find that individual "buy" actions led to short-term increases in subsequent buy-side activity hundreds of times the size of our interventions. From a design perspective, we note that the design choices of the exchange we study may have promoted this and other peer influence effects, which highlights the potential social and economic impact of HCI in the design of digital institutions.

We strengthen recent connections between prediction markets and learning by showing that a natural class of market makers can be understood as performing stochastic mirror descent when trader demands are sequentially drawn from a fixed distribution. This provides new insights into how market prices (and price paths) may be interpreted as a summary of the market's belief distribution by relating them to the optimization problem being solved. In particular, we show that the stationary point of the stochastic process of prices generated by the market is equal to the market's Walrasian equilibrium of classic market analysis. Together, these results suggest how traditional market making mechanisms might be replaced with general purpose learning algorithms while still retaining guarantees about their behaviour.

This paper examines the problem of social collaborative filtering (CF) to recommend items of interest to users in a social network setting. Unlike standard CF algorithms using relatively simple user and item features, recommendation in social networks poses the more complex problem of learning user preferences from a rich and complex set of user profile and interaction information. Many existing social CF methods have extended traditional CF matrix factorization, but have overlooked important aspects germane to the social setting. We propose a unified framework for social CF matrix factorization by introducing novel objective functions for training. Our new objective functions have three key features that address main drawbacks of existing approaches: (a) we fully exploit feature-based user similarity, (b) we permit direct learning of user-to-user information diffusion, and (c) we leverage co-preference (dis)agreement between two users to learn restricted areas of common interest. We evaluate these new social CF objectives, comparing them to each other and to a variety of (social) CF baselines, and analyze user behavior on live user trials in a custom-developed Facebook App involving data collected over five months from over 100 App users and their 37,000+ friends.