An important open problem is the theoretically feasible acceleration of mini-batch SGD-type algorithms on quadratic problems with power-law spectrum. In the non-stochastic setting, the optimal exponent $\xi$ in the loss convergence $L_t\sim C_Lt^{-\xi}$ is double that in plain GD and is achievable using Heavy Ball (HB) with a suitable schedule; this no longer works in the presence of mini-batch noise. We address this challenge by considering first-order methods with an arbitrary fixed number $M$ of auxiliary velocity vectors (*memory-$M$ algorithms*). We first prove an equivalence between two forms of such algorithms and describe them in terms of suitable characteristic polynomials. Then we develop a general expansion of the loss in terms of *signal and noise propagators*. Using it, we show that losses of stationary stable memory-$M$ algorithms always retain the exponent $\xi$ of plain GD, but can have different constants $C_L$ depending on their *effective learning rate* that generalizes that of HB. We prove that in memory-1 algorithms we can make $C_L$ arbitrarily small while maintaining stability. As a consequence, we propose a memory-1 algorithm with a time-dependent schedule that we show heuristically and experimentally to improve the exponent $\xi$ of plain SGD.

Conformal prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on the data exchangeability, a condition often violated in practice. Existing approaches for tackling non-exchangeability lead to methods that are not computable beyond the simplest examples. In this work, we introduce a new efficient approach to CP that produces provably valid confidence sets for fairly general non-exchangeable data distributions. We illustrate the general theory with applications to the challenging setting of federated learning under data heterogeneity between agents. Our method allows constructing provably valid personalized prediction sets for agents in a fully federated way. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in a series of experiments on real-world datasets.

The asymptotically precise estimation of the generalization of kernel methods has recently received attention due to the parallels between neural networks and their associated kernels. However, prior works derive such estimates for training by kernel ridge regression (KRR), whereas neural networks are typically trained with gradient descent (GD). In the present work, we consider the training of kernels with a family of \emph{spectral algorithms} specified by profile $h(\lambda)$, and including KRR and GD as special cases. Then, we derive the generalization error as a functional of learning profile $h(\lambda)$ for two data models: high-dimensional Gaussian and low-dimensional translation-invariant model. Under power-law assumptions on the spectrum of the kernel and target, we use our framework to (i) give full loss asymptotics for both noisy and noiseless observations (ii) show that the loss localizes on certain spectral scales, giving a new perspective on the KRR saturation phenomenon (iii) conjecture, and demonstrate for the considered data models, the universality of the loss w.r.t. non-spectral details of the problem, but only in case of noisy observation.

Performance of optimization on quadratic problems sensitively depends on the low-lying part of the spectrum. For large (effectively infinite-dimensional) problems, this part of the spectrum can often be naturally represented or approximated by power law distributions, resulting in power law convergence rates for iterative solutions of these problems by gradient-based algorithms. In this paper, we propose a new spectral condition providing tighter upper bounds for problems with power law optimization trajectories. We use this condition to build a complete picture of upper and lower bounds for a wide range of optimization algorithms - Gradient Descent, Steepest Descent, Heavy Ball, and Conjugate Gradients - with an emphasis on the underlying schedules of learning rate and momentum. In particular, we demonstrate how an optimally accelerated method, its schedule, and convergence upper bound can be obtained in a unified manner for a given shape of the spectrum. Also, we provide first proofs of tight lower bounds for convergence rates of Steepest Descent and Conjugate Gradients under spectral power laws with general exponents. Our experiments show that the obtained convergence bounds and acceleration strategies are not only relevant for exactly quadratic optimization problems, but also fairly accurate when applied to the training of neural networks.

A memory efficient approach to ensembling neural networks is to share most weights among the ensembled models by means of a single reference network. We refer to this strategy as Embedded Ensembling (EE); its particular examples are BatchEnsembles and Monte-Carlo dropout ensembles. In this paper we perform a systematic theoretical and empirical analysis of embedded ensembles with different number of models. Theoretically, we use a Neural-Tangent-Kernel-based approach to derive the wide network limit of the gradient descent dynamics. In this limit, we identify two ensemble regimes - independent and collective - depending on the architecture and initialization strategy of ensemble models. We prove that in the independent regime the embedded ensemble behaves as an ensemble of independent models. We confirm our theoretical prediction with a wide range of experiments with finite networks, and further study empirically various effects such as transition between the two regimes, scaling of ensemble performance with the network width and number of models, and dependence of performance on a number of architecture and hyperparameter choices.

Current theoretical results on optimization trajectories of neural networks trained by gradient descent typically have the form of rigorous but potentially loose bounds on the loss values. In the present work we take a different approach and show that the learning trajectory of a wide network in a lazy training regime can be characterized by an explicit asymptotic at large training times. Specifically, the leading term in the asymptotic expansion of the loss behaves as a power law $L(t) \sim C t^{-\xi}$ with exponent $\xi$ expressed only through the data dimension, the smoothness of the activation function, and the class of function being approximated. Our results are based on spectral analysis of the integral operator representing the linearized evolution of a large network trained on the expected loss. Importantly, the techniques we employ do not require a specific form of the data distribution, for example Gaussian, thus making our findings sufficiently universal.