We propose a framework for hypothesis testing on conditional probability distributions, which we then use to construct *statistical tests of functionals of conditional distributions*. These tests identify the inputs where the functionals differ with high probability, and include tests of conditional moments or two-sample tests. Our key idea is to transform confidence bounds of a learning method into a test of conditional expectations. We instantiate this principle for kernel ridge regression (KRR) with subgaussian noise. An intermediate data embedding then enables more general tests — including *conditional two-sample tests* — via kernel mean embeddings of distributions. To have guarantees in this setting, we generalize existing pointwise-in-time or time-uniform confidence bounds for KRR to previously-inaccessible yet essential cases such as infinite-dimensional outputs with non-trace-class kernels. These bounds also circumvent the need for independent data, allowing for instance online sampling. To make our tests readily applicable in practice, we introduce bootstrapping schemes leveraging the parametric form of testing thresholds identified in theory to avoid tuning inaccessible parameters. We illustrate the tests on examples, including one in process monitoring and comparison of dynamical systems. Overall, our results establish a comprehensive foundation for conditional testing on functionals, from theoretical guarantees to an algorithmic implementation, and advance the state of the art on confidence bounds for vector-valued least squares estimation.

Kernel-based statistical learning on distributional inputs appears in many relevant applications, from medical diagnostics to causal inference, and poses intriguing theoretical questions. While this learning scenario received considerable attention from the machine learning community recently, many gaps in the theory remain. In particular, most works consider only the distributional regression setting, and focus on the regularized least-squares algorithm for this problem. In this work, we start to fill these gaps. We prove two oracle inequalities for kernel machines in general distributional learning scenarios, as well as a generalization result based on algorithmic stability. Our main results are formulated in great generality, utilizing general Hilbertian embeddings, which makes them applicable to a wide array of approaches to distributional learning. Additionally, we specialize our results to the cases of kernel mean embeddings and of the recently introduced Hilbertian embeddings based on sliced Wasserstein distances, providing concrete instances of the general setup. Our results considerably enlarge the scope of theoretically grounded distributional learning, and provide many interesting avenues for future work.

The consistency of a learning method is usually established under the assumption that the observations are a realization of an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) or mixing process. Yet, kernel methods such as support vector machines (SVMs), Gaussian processes, or conditional kernel mean embeddings (CKMEs) all give excellent performance under sampling schemes that are obviously non-i.i.d., such as when data comes from a dynamical system. We propose the new notion of empirical weak convergence (EWC) as a general assumption explaining such phenomena for kernel methods. It assumes the existence of a random asymptotic data distribution and is a strict weakening of previous assumptions in the field. Our main results then establish consistency of SVMs, kernel mean embeddings, and general Hilbert-space valued empirical expectations with EWC data. Our analysis holds for both finite- and infinite-dimensional outputs, as we extend classical results of statistical learning to the latter case. In particular, it is also applicable to CKMEs. Overall, our results open new classes of processes to statistical learning and can serve as a foundation for a theory of learning beyond i.i.d. and mixing.