Traditional disaster analysis and modelling tools for assessing the severity of a disaster are predictive in nature. Based on the past observational data, these tools prescribe how the current input state (e.g., environmental conditions, situation reports) results in a severity assessment. However, these systems are not meant to be interventional in the causal sense, where the user can modify the current input state to simulate counterfactual ''what-if'' scenarios. In this work, we provide an alternative interventional tool that complements traditional disaster modelling tools by leveraging real-time data sources like satellite imagery, news, and social media. Our tool also helps understand the causal attribution of different factors on the estimated severity, over any given region of interest. In addition, we provide actionable recourses that would enable easier mitigation planning. Our source code is publicly available.

A recent surge of users migrating from Twitter to alternative platforms, such as Mastodon, raised questions regarding what migration patterns are, how different platforms impact user behaviors, and how migrated users settle in the migration process. In this study, we elaborate on how we investigate these questions by collecting data over 10,000 users who migrated from Twitter to Mastodon within the first ten weeks following the ownership change of Twitter. Our research is structured in three primary steps. First, we develop algorithms to extract and analyze migration patterns. Second, by leveraging behavioral analysis, we examine the distinct architectures of Twitter and Mastodon to learn how user behaviors correspond with the characteristics of each platform. Last, we determine how particular behavioral factors influence users to stay on Mastodon. We share our findings of user migration, insights, and lessons learned from the user behavior study.

After Twitter's ownership change and policy shifts, many users reconsidered their go-to social media outlets and platforms like Mastodon, Bluesky, and Threads became attractive alternatives in the battle for users. Based on the data from over 14,000 users who migrated to these platforms within the first eight weeks after the launch of Threads, our study examines: (1) distinguishing attributes of Twitter users who migrated, compared to non-migrants; (2) temporal migration patterns and associated challenges for sustainable migration faced by each platform; and (3) how these new platforms are perceived in relation to Twitter. Our research proceeds in three stages. First, we examine migration from a broad perspective, not just one-to-one migration. Second, we leverage behavioral analysis to pinpoint the distinct migration pattern of each platform. Last, we employ a Large Language Model (LLM) to discern stances towards each platform and correlate them with the platform usage. This in-depth analysis illuminates migration patterns amid competition across social media platforms.

Nowadays, fake news easily propagates through online social networks and becomes a grand threat to individuals and society. Assessing the authenticity of news is challenging due to its elaborately fabricated contents, making it difficult to obtain large-scale annotations for fake news data. Due to such data scarcity issues, detecting fake news tends to fail and overfit in the supervised setting. Recently, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been adopted to leverage the richer relational information among both labeled and unlabeled instances. Despite their promising results, they are inherently focused on pairwise relations between news, which can limit the expressive power for capturing fake news that spreads in a group-level. For example, detecting fake news can be more effective when we better understand relations between news pieces shared among susceptible users. To address those issues, we propose to leverage a hypergraph to represent group-wise interaction among news, while focusing on important news relations with its dual-level attention mechanism. Experiments based on two benchmark datasets show that our approach yields remarkable performance and maintains the high performance even with a small subset of labeled news data.

Causal inference is a critical task in various fields such as healthcare, economics, marketing and education. Recently, there have been significant advances through the application of machine learning techniques, especially deep neural networks. Unfortunately, to-date many of the proposed methods are evaluated on different (data, software/hardware, hyperparameter) setups and consequently it is nearly impossible to compare the efficacy of the available methods or reproduce results presented in original research manuscripts. In this paper, we propose a causal inference toolbox (CauseBox) that addresses the aforementioned problems. At the time of publication, the toolbox includes seven state of the art causal inference methods and two benchmark datasets. By providing convenient command-line and GUI-based interfaces, the CauseBox toolbox helps researchers fairly compare the state of the art methods in their chosen application context against benchmark datasets. The code is made public at github.com/paras2612/CauseBox.