In this work, we introduce the notion of Context-Based Prediction Models. A Context-Based Prediction Model determines the probability of a user’s action (such as a click or a conversion) solely by relying on user and contextual features, without considering any specific features of the item itself. We have identified numerous valuable applications for this modeling approach, including training an auxiliary context-based model to estimate click probability and incorporating its prediction as a feature in CTR prediction models. Our experiments indicate that this enhancement brings significant improvements in offline and online business metrics while having minimal impact on the cost of serving. Overall, our work offers a simple and scalable, yet powerful approach for enhancing the performance of large-scale commercial recommender systems, with broad implications for the field of personalized recommendations.

In this work, we present a scalable and efficient system for exploring the supply landscape in real-time bidding. The system directs exploration based on the predictive uncertainty of models used for click-through rate prediction and works in a high-throughput, low-latency environment. Through online A/B testing, we demonstrate that exploration with model uncertainty has a positive impact on model performance and business KPIs.

Hyperparameter optimization is the process of identifying the appropriate hyperparameter configuration of a given machine learning model with regard to a given learning task. For smaller data sets, an exhaustive search is possible; However, when the data size and model complexity increase, the number of configuration evaluations becomes the main computational bottleneck. A promising paradigm for tackling this type of problem is surrogate-based optimization. The main idea underlying this paradigm considers an incrementally updated model of the relation between the hyperparameter space and the output (target) space; the data for this model are obtained by evaluating the main learning engine, which is, for example, a factorization machine-based model. By learning to approximate the hyperparameter-target relation, the surrogate (machine learning) model can be used to score large amounts of hyperparameter configurations, exploring parts of the configuration space beyond the reach of direct machine learning engine evaluation. Commonly, a surrogate is selected prior to optimization initialization and remains the same during the search. We investigated whether dynamic switching of surrogates during the optimization itself is a sensible idea of practical relevance for selecting the most appropriate factorization machine-based models for large-scale online recommendation. We conducted benchmarks on data sets containing hundreds of millions of instances against established baselines such as Random Forest- and Gaussian process-based surrogates. The results indicate that surrogate switching can offer good performance while considering fewer learning engine evaluations.

We present the process of transitioning machine learning models to the TensorFlow framework at a large scale in an online advertising ecosystem. In this talk we address the key challenges we faced and describe how we successfully tackled them; notably, implementing the models in TF and serving them efficiently with low latency using various optimization techniques.