We introduce the inference for populations at risk (iPAR) framework which enables modelling and estimation of spatial disease dynamics in scenarios where the population at risk is unknown or poorly mapped. This framework addresses a gap in spatial infectious disease modelling approaches, with current methods typically requiring data on the spatial distribution of the population at risk. The principles for iPAR are demonstrated in the context of a susceptible-infected disease dynamics model coupled with Bayesian inference implemented via data-augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This implementation of iPAR is tested for a range of scenarios using simulated outbreak data. Results indicate that the method can effectively estimate key properties of disease spread from spatio-temporal case reports and make useful predictions of future spread. The method is then applied to a case study exploring the 2014-2019 Estonian outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in wild boar. Estimates of epidemiological parameters reveal evidence for long distance transmission, as well as disease control via reduction of the wild boar population in Estonia.

Computational modeling is a commonly used technology in many scientific disciplines and has played a noticeable role in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. Modeling scientists conduct sensitivity analysis frequently to observe and monitor the behavior of a model during its development and deployment. The traditional algorithmic ranking of sensitivity of different parameters usually does not provide modeling scientists with sufficient information to understand the interactions between different parameters and model outputs, while modeling scientists need to observe a large number of model runs in order to gain actionable information for parameter optimization. To address the above challenge, we developed and compared two visual analytics approaches, namely: algorithm-centric and visualization-assisted, and visualization-centric and algorithm-assisted. We evaluated the two approaches based on a structured analysis of different tasks in visual sensitivity analysis as well as the feedback of domain experts. While the work was carried out in the context of epidemiological modeling, the two approaches developed in this work are directly applicable to a variety of modeling processes featuring time series outputs, and can be extended to work with models with other types of outputs.