The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) is a general-purpose algorithm for combinatorial optimization that has been a promising avenue for near-term quantum advantage. In this paper, we analyze the performance of the QAOA on the spiked tensor model, a statistical estimation problem that exhibits a large computational-statistical gap classically. We prove that the weak recovery threshold of $1$-step QAOA matches that of $1$-step tensor power iteration. Additional heuristic calculations suggest that the weak recovery threshold of $p$-step QAOA matches that of $p$-step tensor power iteration when $p$ is a fixed constant. This further implies that multi-step QAOA with tensor unfolding could achieve, but not surpass, the asymptotic classical computation threshold $\Theta(n^{(q-2)/4})$ for spiked $q$-tensors. Meanwhile, we characterize the asymptotic overlap distribution for $p$-step QAOA, discovering an intriguing sine-Gaussian law verified through simulations. For some $p$ and $q$, the QAOA has an effective recovery threshold that is a constant factor better than tensor power iteration. Of independent interest, our proof techniques employ the Fourier transform to handle difficult combinatorial sums, a novel approach differing from prior QAOA analyses on spin-glass models without planted structure.

The Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) is a general purpose quantum algorithm designed for combinatorial optimization. We analyze its expected performance and prove concentration properties at any constant level (number of layers) on ensembles of random combinatorial optimization problems in the infinite size limit. These ensembles include mixed spin models and Max-q-XORSAT on sparse random hypergraphs. Our analysis can be understood via a saddlepoint approximation of a sum-over-paths integral. This is made rigorous by proving a generalization of the multinomial theorem, which is a technical result of independent interest. We then show that the performance of the QAOA at constant levels for the pure q-spin model matches asymptotically the ones for Max-q XORSAT on random sparse Erdôs-Rényi hypergraphs and every large-girth regular hypergraph. Through this correspondence, we establish that the average-case value produced by the QAOA at constant levels is bounded away from optimality for pure q-spin models when $q\geq 4$ and is even. This limitation gives a hardness of approximation result for quantum algorithms in a new regime where the whole graph is seen.