Instant delivery services, such as food delivery and package delivery, have achieved explosive growth in recent years by providing customers with daily-life convenience. An emerging research area within these services is service Route&Time Prediction (RTP), which aims to estimate the future service route as well as the arrival time of a given worker. As one of the most crucial tasks in those service platforms, RTP stands central to enhancing user satisfaction and trimming operational expenditures on these platforms. Despite a plethora of algorithms developed to date, there is no systematic, comprehensive survey to guide researchers in this domain. To fill this gap, our work presents the first comprehensive survey that methodically categorizes recent advances in service route and time prediction. We start by defining the RTP challenge and then delve into the metrics that are often employed. Following that, we scrutinize the existing RTP methodologies, presenting a novel taxonomy of them. We categorize these methods based on three criteria: (i) type of task, subdivided into only-route prediction, only-time prediction, and joint route&time prediction; (ii) model architecture, which encompasses sequence-based and graph-based models; and (iii) learning paradigm, including Supervised Learning (SL) and Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL). Conclusively, we highlight the limitations of current research and suggest prospective avenues. We believe that the taxonomy, progress, and prospects introduced in this paper can significantly promote the development of this field.

Instant-logistics (e.g., food delivery and package pick-up) is increasingly calling for Route and Time Prediction (RTP), which aims to predict both future route and arrival time of a courier’s unvisited locations. Accurate RTP can greatly benefit the platform, such as optimizing order dispatching and improving user experience. Although recent years have witnessed various works for solving the RTP problem, they still suffer from the following three limitations: i) Failing to consider the high-level transfer mode of couriers between AOIs (Areas Of Interest, such as residential quarters or office buildings), which can help to build more accurate RTP. ii) Failing to simultaneously make the route and time prediction. Existing works either separately predict route/time or predict them in a two-step way. However, since route and time are strongly correlated (nearby locations in the route should have similar arrival times), jointly predicting them should be more effective. iii) The widely adopted tree-based or sequence-based architecture fails to fully encode the spatial relationship between different locations. To address the above limitations, we propose a multi-level and multi-task graph model, named M2G4RTP, for instant-logistics route and time joint prediction. Specifically, we propose a multi-level graph encoder equipped with a newly-designed GAT-e encoding module to capture couriers’ both high-level transfer modes between AOIs and low-level transfer modes between locations. Moreover, a multi-task decoder is presented to jointly predict the route and time at different levels. Finally, a loss weighting method based on homoscedastic uncertainty is designed to balance the two tasks adaptively. Extensive experiments on an industry-scale real-world dataset, as well as the online deployment on Cainiao Alibaba, demonstrate the superiority of our proposed model.

In intelligent logistics systems, predicting the Estimated Time of Pick-up Arrival (ETPA) of packages is a crucial task, which aims to predict the courier’s arrival time to all the unpicked-up packages at any time. Accurate prediction of ETPA can help systems alleviate customers’ waiting anxiety and improve their experience. We identify three main challenges of this problem. First, unlike the travel time estimation problem in other fields like ride-hailing, the ETPA task is distinctively a multi-destination and path-free prediction problem. Second, an intuitive idea for solving ETPA is to predict the pick-up route and then the time in two stages. However, it is difficult to accurately and efficiently predict couriers’ future routes in the route prediction step since their behaviors are affected by multiple complex factors. Third, furthermore, in the time prediction step, the requirement for providing a courier’s all unpicked-up packages’ ETPA at once in real time makes the problem even more challenging. To tackle the preceding challenges, we propose RankETPA, which integrates the route inference into the ETPA prediction. First, a learning-based pick-up route predictor is designed to learn the route-ranking strategies of couriers from their massive spatial-temporal behaviors. Then, a spatial-temporal attention-based arrival time predictor is designed for real-time ETPA inference via capturing the spatial-temporal correlations between the unpicked-up packages. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets and a synthetic dataset demonstrate that RankETPA achieves significant performance improvement against the baseline models.

The ACM SIGSPATIAL GIS CUP 2021 focuses on Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction, which is important to the travel scheduling and decision-making of ride-hailing platforms. Accurate ETA prediction is very challenging since ETA is affected by many heterogeneous influencing factors, including static features (e.g., number of links) and dynamic features (e.g., real-time road conditions). Meanwhile, ETA can also be affected by complex spatial-temporal dependencies between links and crosses in the route. To tackle the above challenges, we propose a deep learning method based on the Wide-Deep-Recurrent (WDR) architecture while modeling the interactions between links and crosses. We adopt Neural Factorization Machines (NFM) to memorize the historical patterns and a multiple layer perceptron (MLP) to integrate various heterogeneous influencing factors. We also model links and crosses jointly to learn their spatial-temporal dependencies in the route. Extensive experiments conducted on a real dataset show that our method achieves a high prediction accuracy. The source code is available at: https://github.com/wanhuaiyu/WDR-LC.