Current methods for time series forecasting struggle in the online scenario, since it is difficult to preserve long-term dependency while adapting short-term changes when data are arriving sequentially. Although some recent methods solve this problem by controlling the updates of latent states, they cannot disentangle the long/short-term states, leading to the inability to effectively adapt to nonstationary. To tackle this challenge, we propose a general framework to disentangle long/short-term states for online time series forecasting. Our idea is inspired by the observations where short-term changes can be led by unknown interventions like abrupt policies in the stock market. Based on this insight, we formalize a data generation process with unknown interventions on short-term states. Under mild assumptions, we further leverage the independence of short-term states led by unknown interventions to establish the identification theory to achieve the disentanglement of long/short-term states. Built on this theory, we develop a Long Short-Term Disentanglement model (LSTD) to extract the long/short-term states with long/short term encoders, respectively. Furthermore, the LSTD model incorporates a smooth constraint to preserve the long-term dependencies and an interrupted dependency constraint to enforce the forgetting of short-term dependencies, together boosting the disentanglement of long/short-term states. Experimental results on several benchmark datasets show that our LSTD model outperforms existing methods for online time series forecasting, validating its efficacy in real-world applications.

Learning Granger causality from event sequences has important applications in various scenarios. Many methods have been developed based on Hawkes process with a stationarity assumption. However, these methods often fail in real-world scenarios due to violating the stationarity assumption, as an event sequence can be generated under different states at varying times. Although some work tries to model non-stationarity by searching for best segmentation, they still suffer from the lack of robustness and identification guarantee. An intuitive solution is to model the non-stationary generation process in a unified probabilistic generative framework. This presents two significant challenges: how to model the generation process considering both the stationarity of each subsequence and the non-stationarity among the subsequences, and how to identify the Granger causality. To address these challenges, we devise State Hawkes Processes (StateHPs). For the first challenge, StateHPs formulates the state assignments of each subsequence as a Dirichlet distribution and each state as a Hawkes process. For the second challenge, StateHPs introduces a variational Expectation-Maximization algorithm to identify the Granger causal graph. We also develop the identification theories for StateHPs. On real-world data, StateHPs achieves 35.5%, 33.9%, and 36.7% improvement among F1, Precision, and Recall metrics compared to the SOTA baselines.

Learning Granger causality from event sequences is a challenging but essential task across various applications. Most existing methods rely on the assumption that event sequences are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). However, this i.i.d. assumption is often violated due to the inherent dependencies among the event sequences. Fortunately, in practice, we find these dependencies can be modeled by a topological network, suggesting a potential solution to the non-i.i.d. problem by introducing the prior topological network into Granger causal discovery. This observation prompts us to tackle two ensuing challenges: 1) how to model the event sequences while incorporating both the prior topological network and the latent Granger causal structure, and 2) how to learn the Granger causal structure. To this end, we devise a unified topological neural Poisson auto-regressive model with two processes. In the generation process, we employ a variant of the neural Poisson process to model the event sequences, considering influences from both the topological network and the Granger causal structure. In the inference process, we formulate an amortized inference algorithm to infer the latent Granger causal structure. We encapsulate these two processes within a unified likelihood function, providing an end-to-end framework for this task. Experiments on simulated and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Localizing fault root causes is challenging but critical for wireless network operation and maintenance. Though supervised methods have shown promising results in training samples, most of the existing approaches assume that the training and the testing samples are independent and identical distributed. Such an i.i.d assumption usually does not hold due to network faults that may occur in different devices across different domains (well known as the distribution shift). Thus, it is necessary to align distributions between the training and test data set. Motivated by the stability of the causal mechanism across the domains, a Causal Alignment based Root Cause Localization (CARCL) framework, including the causal alignment and the multi-stage classifier, is proposed. CARCL first offers to align the distributions locally for each causal module but not globally on the complete variable set. We further develop a multi-stage classifier to determine the root causes with the help of predicted pseudo labels. The experiments demonstrate a superior performance of our method.