Computational complexity of Bayesian learning is impeding its adoption in practical, large-scale tasks, despite demonstrations of significant merits such as improved robustness and resilience to unseen or out-of-distribution inputs over their non-Bayesian counterparts. Although, Deep ensemble methods (Seligmann et al. 2024; Lakshminarayanan, Pritzel, and Blundell 2017) have proven to be highly effective for Bayesian deep learning, their practical application is hindered by substantial computational cost. In this study, we introduce an innovative framework to mitigate the computational burden of ensemble Bayesian deep learning. We explore a more feasible alternative, inspired by the recent success of low-rank adapters, we introduce Bayesian Low-Rank LeArning (Bella). We show, i) Bella achieves a dramatic reduction in the number of trainable parameters required to approximate a Bayesian posterior; and ii) it not only maintains, but in some instances, surpasses the performance–in accuracy and out-of-distribution generalisation–of conventional Bayesian learning methods and non-Bayesian baselines. Our extensive empirical evaluation in large-scale tasks such as ImageNet, CAMELYON17, DomainNet, VQA with CLIP, LLaVA demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of Bella in building highly scalable and practical Bayesian deep models for real-world applications.

We introduce credal two-sample testing, a new hypothesis testing framework for comparing credal sets—convex sets of probability measures where each element captures aleatoric uncertainty and the set itself represents epistemic uncertainty that arises from the modeller’s partial ignorance. Compared to classical two-sample tests, which focus on comparing precise distributions, the proposed framework provides a broader and more versatile set of hypotheses. This approach enables the direct integration of epistemic uncertainty, effectively addressing the challenges arising from partial ignorance in hypothesis testing. By generalising two-sample test to compare credal sets, our framework enables reasoning for equality, inclusion, intersection, and mutual exclusivity, each offering unique insights into the modeller’s epistemic beliefs. As the first work on nonparametric hypothesis testing for comparing credal sets, we focus on finitely generated credal sets derived from i.i.d. samples from multiple distributions—referred to as \emph{credal samples}. We formalise these tests as two-sample tests with nuisance parameters and introduce the first permutation-based solution for this class of problems, significantly improving upon existing methods. Our approach properly incorporates the modeller’s epistemic uncertainty into hypothesis testing, leading to more robust and credible conclusions, with kernel-based implementations for real-world applications.

Squared families of probability distributions have been studied and applied in numerous machine learning contexts. Typically, they appear as likelihoods, where their advantageous computational, geometric and statistical properties are exploited for fast estimation algorithms, representational properties and statistical guarantees. Here, we investigate the use of squared families as prior beliefs in Bayesian inference. We find that they can form helpful conjugate families, often allowing for closed-form and tractable Bayesian inference and marginal likelihoods. We apply such conjugate families to Bayesian regression in feature space using end-to-end learnable neural network features. Such a setting allows for a rich multi-modal alternative to Gaussian processes with neural network features, often called deep kernel learning. We demonstrate our method on few shot learning, outperforming existing neural methods based on Gaussian processes and normalising flows.

Label distribution learning (LDL) provides a framework wherein a distribution over categories rather than a single category is predicted, with the aim of addressing ambiguity in labeled data. Existing research on LDL mainly focuses on the task of point estimation, i.e., finding an optimal distribution in the probability simplex conditioned on the given sample. In this paper, we propose a novel label distribution learning model SNEFY-LDL, which estimates a probability distribution of all possible label distributions over the simplex, by unleashing the expressive power of the recently introduced Squared Neural Family (SNEFY), a new class of tractable probability models. As a way to summarize the fitted model, we derive the closed-form label distribution mean, variance and covariance conditioned on the given sample, which can be used to predict the ground-truth label distributions, construct label distribution confidence intervals, and measure the correlations between different labels. Moreover, more information about the label distribution prediction uncertainties can be acquired from the modeled probability density function. Extensive experiments on conformal prediction, active learning and ensemble learning are conducted, verifying SNEFY-LDL’s great effectiveness in LDL uncertainty quantification. The source code of this paper is available at https://github.com/daokunzhang/SNEFY-LDL.

We introduce squared neural Poisson point processes (SNEPPPs) by parameterising the intensity function by the squared norm of a two layer neural network. When the hidden layer is fixed and the second layer has a single neuron, our approach resembles previous uses of squared Gaussian process or kernel methods, but allowing the hidden layer to be learnt allows for additional flexibility. In many cases of interest, the integrated intensity function admits a closed form and can be computed in quadratic time in the number of hidden neurons. We enumerate a far more extensive number of such cases than has previously been discussed. Our approach is more memory and time efficient than naive implementations of squared or exponentiated kernel methods or Gaussian processes. Maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimates in a reparameterisation of the final layer of the intensity function can be obtained by solving a (strongly) convex optimisation problem using projected gradient descent. We demonstrate SNEPPPs on real, and synthetic benchmarks, and provide a software implementation.

Kernel conditional mean embeddings (CMEs) offer a powerful framework for representing conditional distributions, but they often face scalability and expressiveness challenges. In this work, we propose a new method that effectively combines the strengths of deep learning with CMEs in order to address these challenges. Specifically, our approach leverages the end-to-end neural network (NN) optimization framework using a kernel-based objective. This design circumvents the computationally expensive Gram matrix inversion required by current CME methods. To further enhance performance, we provide efficient strategies to optimize the remaining kernel hyperparameters. In conditional density estimation tasks, our NN-CME hybrid achieves competitive performance and often surpasses existing deep learning-based methods. Lastly, we showcase its remarkable versatility by seamlessly integrating it into reinforcement learning (RL) contexts. Building on Q-learning, our approach naturally leads to a new variant of distributional RL methods, which demonstrates consistent effectiveness across different environments.

The process of calibrating computer models of natural phenomena is essential for applications in the physical sciences, where plenty of domain knowledge can be embedded into simulations and then calibrated against real observations. Current machine learning approaches, however, mostly rely on rerunning simulations over a fixed set of designs available in the observed data, potentially neglecting informative correlations across the design space and requiring a large amount of simulations. Instead, we consider the calibration process from the perspective of Bayesian adaptive experimental design and propose a data-efficient algorithm to run maximally informative simulations within a batch-sequential process. At each round, the algorithm jointly estimates the parameters posterior distribution and optimal designs by maximising a variational lower bound of the expected information gain. The simulator is modelled as a sample from a Gaussian process, which allows us to correlate simulations and real data with the unknown calibration parameters. We show the benefits of our method when compared to related approaches across synthetic and real-data problems.

Causal inference grows increasingly complex as the dimension of confounders increases. Given treatments $X$, outcomes $Y$, and measured confounders $Z$, we develop a non-parametric method to test the do-null hypothesis that, after an intervention on $X$, there is no marginal dependence of $Y$ on $X$, against the general alternative. Building on the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) for marginal independence testing, we propose backdoor-HSIC (bd-HSIC), an importance weighted HSIC which combines density ratio estimation with kernel methods. Experiments on simulated data verify the correct size and that the estimator has power for both binary and continuous treatments under a large number of confounding variables. Additionally, we establish convergence properties of the estimators of covariance operators used in bd-HSIC. We investigate the advantages and disadvantages of bd-HSIC against parametric tests as well as the importance of using the do-null testing in contrast to marginal or conditional independence testing. A complete implementation can be found at https://github.com/MrHuff/kgformula.

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful inductive biases, which constrain the regression hypothesis space and improve predictive performance. We introduce collider regression, a framework to incorporate probabilistic causal knowledge from a collider in a regression problem. When the hypothesis space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove a strictly positive generalisation benefit under mild assumptions and provide closed-form estimators of the empirical risk minimiser. Experiments on synthetic and climate model data demonstrate performance gains of the proposed methodology.

We present a novel approach for explaining Gaussian processes (GPs) that can utilize the full analytical covariance structure present in GPs. Our method is based on the popular solution concept of Shapley values extended to stochastic cooperative games, resulting in explanations that are random variables. The GP explanations generated using our approach satisfy similar favorable axioms to standard Shapley values and possess a tractable covariance function across features and data observations. This covariance allows for quantifying explanation uncertainties and studying the statistical dependencies between explanations. We further extend our framework to the problem of predictive explanation, and propose a Shapley prior over the explanation function to predict Shapley values for new data based on previously computed ones. Our extensive illustrations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Flexible models for probability distributions are an essential ingredient in many machine learning tasks. We develop and investigate a new class of probability distributions, which we call a Squared Neural Family (SNEFY), formed by squaring the 2-norm of a neural network and normalising it with respect to a base measure. Following the reasoning similar to the well established connections between infinitely wide neural networks and Gaussian processes, we show that SNEFYs admit closed form normalising constants in many cases of interest, thereby resulting in flexible yet fully tractable density models. SNEFYs strictly generalise classical exponential families, are closed under conditioning, and have tractable marginal distributions. Their utility is illustrated on a variety of density estimation, conditional density estimation, and density estimation with missing data tasks.

We establish the first mathematically rigorous link between Bayesian, variational Bayesian, and ensemble methods. A key step towards this it to reformulate the non-convex optimisation problem typically encountered in deep learning as a convex optimisation in the space of probability measures. On a technical level, our contribution amounts to studying generalised variational inference through the lense of Wasserstein gradient flows. The result is a unified theory of various seemingly disconnected approaches that are commonly used for uncertainty quantification in deep learning---including deep ensembles and (variational) Bayesian methods. This offers a fresh perspective on the reasons behind the success of deep ensembles over procedures based on parameterised variational inference, and allows the derivation of new ensembling schemes with convergence guarantees. We showcase this by proposing a family of interacting deep ensembles with direct parallels to the interactions of particle systems in thermodynamics, and use our theory to prove the convergence of these algorithms to a well-defined global minimiser on the space of probability measures.

We revisit widely used preferential Gaussian processes (PGP) by Chu and Ghahramani [2005] and challenge their modelling assumption that imposes rankability of data items via latent utility function values. We propose a generalisation of PGP which can capture more expressive latent preferential structures in the data and thus be used to model inconsistent preferences, i.e. where transitivity is violated, or to discover clusters of comparable items via spectral decomposition of the learned preference functions. We also consider the properties of associated covariance kernel functions and its reproducing kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS), giving a simple construction that satisfies universality in the space of preference functions. Finally, we provide an extensive set of numerical experiments on simulated and real-world datasets showcasing the competitiveness of our proposed method with state-of-the-art. Our experimental findings support the conjecture that violations of rankability are ubiquitous in real-world preferential data.

We consider frequently used scoring rules for right-censored survival regression models such as time-dependent concordance, survival-CRPS, integrated Brier score and integrated binomial log-likelihood, and prove that neither of them is a proper scoring rule. This means that the true survival distribution may be scored worse than incorrect distributions, leading to inaccurate estimation. We prove, in contrast to these scores, that the right-censored log-likelihood is a proper scoring rule, i.e. the highest expected score is achieved by the true distribution. Despite this, modern feed-forward neural-network-based survival regression models are unable to train and validate directly on right-censored log-likelihood, due to its intractability, and resort to the aforementioned alternatives, i.e. non-proper scoring rules. We therefore propose a simple novel survival regression method capable of directly optimizing log-likelihood using a monotonic restriction on the time-dependent weights, coined SurvivalMonotonic-net (SuMo-net). SuMo-net achieves state-of-the-art log-likelihood scores across several datasets with 20–100x computational speedup on inference over existing state-of-the-art neural methods and is readily applicable to datasets with several million observations.

Feature attribution for kernel methods is often heuristic and not individualised for each prediction. To address this, we turn to the concept of Shapley values (SV), a coalition game theoretical framework that has previously been applied to different machine learning model interpretation tasks, such as linear models, tree ensembles and deep networks. By analysing SVs from a functional perspective, we propose RKHS-SHAP, an attribution method for kernel machines that can efficiently compute both Interventional and Observational Shapley values using kernel mean embeddings of distributions. We show theoretically that our method is robust with respect to local perturbations - a key yet often overlooked desideratum for consistent model interpretation. Further, we propose Shapley regulariser, applicable to a general empirical risk minimisation framework, allowing learning while controlling the level of specific feature's contributions to the model. We demonstrate that the Shapley regulariser enables learning which is robust to covariate shift of a given feature and fair learning which controls the SVs of sensitive features.

While preference modelling is becoming one of the pillars of machine learning, the problem of preference explanation remains challenging and underexplored. In this paper, we propose \textsc{Pref-SHAP}, a Shapley value-based model explanation framework for pairwise comparison data. We derive the appropriate value functions for preference models and further extend the framework to model and explain \emph{context specific} information, such as the surface type in a tennis game. To demonstrate the utility of \textsc{Pref-SHAP}, we apply our method to a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets and show that richer and more insightful explanations can be obtained over the baseline.

Kernel matrix-vector multiplication (KMVM) is a foundational operation in machine learning and scientific computing. However, as KMVM tends to scale quadratically in both memory and time, applications are often limited by these computational constraints. In this paper, we propose a novel approximation procedure coined \textit{Faster-Fast and Free Memory Method} ($\text{F}^3$M) to address these scaling issues of KMVM for tall~($10^8\sim 10^9$) and skinny~($D\leq7$) data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that $\text{F}^3$M has empirical \emph{linear time and memory} complexity with a relative error of order $10^{-3}$ and can compute a full KMVM for a billion points \emph{in under a minute} on a high-end GPU, leading to a significant speed-up in comparison to existing CPU methods. We demonstrate the utility of our procedure by applying it as a drop-in for the state-of-the-art GPU-based linear solver FALKON, \emph{improving speed 1.5-5.5 times} at the cost of $<1\%$ drop in accuracy. We further demonstrate competitive results on \emph{Gaussian Process regression} coupled with significant speedups on a variety of real-world datasets.

We develop a framework for generalized variational inference in infinite-dimensional function spaces and use it to construct a method termed Gaussian Wasserstein inference (GWI). GWI leverages the Wasserstein distance between Gaussian measures on the Hilbert space of square-integrable functions in order to determine a variational posterior using a tractable optimization criterion. It avoids pathologies arising in standard variational function space inference. An exciting application of GWI is the ability to use deep neural networks in the variational parametrization of GWI, combining their superior predictive performance with the principled uncertainty quantification analogous to that of Gaussian processes. The proposed method obtains state-of-the-art performance on several benchmark datasets.

Abstract We outline an inherent flaw of tensor factorization models when latent factors are expressed as a function of side information and propose a novel method to mitigate this. We coin our methodology kernel fried tensor (KFT) and present it as a large-scale prediction and forecasting tool for high dimensional data. Our results show superior performance against LightGBM and Field aware factorization machines (FFM), two algorithms with proven track records, widely used in large-scale prediction. We also develop a variational inference framework for KFT which enables associating the predictions and forecasts with calibrated uncertainty estimates on several datasets.

The inaccessibility of controlled randomized trials due to inherent constraints in many fields of science has been a fundamental issue in causal inference. In this paper, we focus on distinguishing the cause from effect in the bivariate setting under limited observational data. Based on recent developments in meta learning as well as in causal inference, we introduce a novel generative model that allows distinguishing cause and effect in the small data setting. Using a learnt task variable that contains distributional information of each dataset, we propose an end-to-end algorithm that makes use of similar training datasets at test time. We demonstrate our method on various synthetic as well as real-world data and show that it is able to maintain high accuracy in detecting directions across varying dataset sizes.

Current meta-learning approaches focus on learning functional representations of relationships between variables, \textit{i.e.} estimating conditional expectations in regression. In many applications, however, the conditional distributions cannot be meaningfully summarized solely by expectation (due to \textit{e.g.} multimodality). We introduce a novel technique for meta-learning conditional densities, which combines neural representation and noise contrastive estimation together with well-established literature in conditional mean embeddings into reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The method shows significant improvements over standard density estimation methods on synthetic and real-world data, by leveraging shared representations across multiple conditional density estimation tasks.

Refining low-resolution (LR) spatial fields with high-resolution (HR) information, often known as statistical downscaling, is challenging as the diversity of spatial datasets often prevents direct matching of observations. Yet, when LR samples are modeled as aggregate conditional means of HR samples with respect to a mediating variable that is globally observed, the recovery of the underlying fine-grained field can be framed as taking an "inverse" of the conditional expectation, namely a deconditioning problem. In this work, we propose a Bayesian formulation of deconditioning which naturally recovers the initial reproducing kernel Hilbert space formulation from Hsu and Ramos (2019). We extend deconditioning to a downscaling setup and devise efficient conditional mean embedding estimator for multiresolution data. By treating conditional expectations as inter-domain features of the underlying field, a posterior for the latent field can be established as a solution to the deconditioning problem. Furthermore, we show that this solution can be viewed as a two-staged vector-valued kernel ridge regressor and show that it has a minimax optimal convergence rate under mild assumptions. Lastly, we demonstrate its proficiency in a synthetic and a real-world atmospheric field downscaling problem, showing substantial improvements over existing methods.

While causal models are becoming one of the mainstays of machine learning, the problem of uncertainty quantification in causal inference remains challenging. In this paper, we study the causal data fusion problem, where data arising from multiple causal graphs are combined to estimate the average treatment effect of a target variable. As data arises from multiple sources and can vary in quality and sample size, principled uncertainty quantification becomes essential. To that end, we introduce \emph{Bayesian Causal Mean Processes}, the framework which combines ideas from probabilistic integration and kernel mean embeddings to represent interventional distributions in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space, while taking into account the uncertainty within each causal graph. To demonstrate the informativeness of our uncertainty estimation, we apply our method to the Causal Bayesian Optimisation task and show improvements over state-of-the-art methods.

Continuously-indexed flows (CIFs) have recently achieved improvements over baseline normalizing flows on a variety of density estimation tasks. CIFs do not possess a closed-form marginal density, and so, unlike standard flows, cannot be plugged in directly to a variational inference (VI) scheme in order to produce a more expressive family of approximate posteriors. However, we show here how CIFs can be used as part of an auxiliary VI scheme to formulate and train expressive posterior approximations in a natural way. We exploit the conditional independence structure of multi-layer CIFs to build the required auxiliary inference models, which we show empirically yield low-variance estimators of the model evidence. We then demonstrate the advantages of CIFs over baseline flows in VI problems when the posterior distribution of interest possesses a complicated topology, obtaining improved results in both the Bayesian inference and surrogate maximum likelihood settings.

Random Fourier features is a widely used, simple, and effective technique for scaling up kernel methods. The existing theoretical analysis of the approach, however, remains focused on specific learning tasks and typically gives pessimistic bounds which are at odds with the empirical results. We tackle these problems and provide the first unified risk analysis of learning with random Fourier features using the squared error and Lipschitz continuous loss functions. In our bounds, the trade-off between the computational cost and the learning risk convergence rate is problem specific and expressed in terms of the regularization parameter and the number of effective degrees of freedom. We study both the standard random Fourier features method for which we improve the existing bounds on the number of features required to guarantee the corresponding minimax risk convergence rate of kernel ridge regression, as well as a data-dependent modification which samples features proportional to ridge leverage scores and further reduces the required number of features. As ridge leverage scores are expensive to compute, we devise a simple approximation scheme which provably reduces the computational cost without loss of statistical efficiency. Our empirical results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme relative to the standard random Fourier features method.

Inter-domain Gaussian processes (GPs) allow for high flexibility and low computational cost when performing approximate inference in GP models. They are particularly suitable for modeling data exhibiting global structure but are limited to stationary covariance functions and thus fail to model non-stationary data effectively. We propose Inter-domain Deep Gaussian Processes, an extension of inter-domain shallow GPs that combines the advantages of inter-domain and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs), and demonstrate how to leverage existing approximate inference methods to perform simple and scalable approximate inference using inter-domain features in DGPs. We assess the performance of our method on a range of regression tasks and demonstrate that it outperforms inter-domain shallow GPs and conventional DGPs on challenging large-scale real-world datasets exhibiting both global structure as well as a high-degree of non-stationarity.

Random Fourier features is a widely used, simple, and effective technique for scaling up kernel methods. The existing theoretical analysis of the approach, however, remains focused on specific learning tasks and typically gives pessimistic bounds which are at odds with the empirical results. We tackle these problems and provide the first unified risk analysis of learning with random Fourier features using the squared error and Lipschitz continuous loss functions. In our bounds, the trade-off between the computational cost and the expected risk convergence rate is problem specific and expressed in terms of the regularization parameter and the number of effective degrees of freedom. We study both the standard random Fourier features method for which we improve the existing bounds on the number of features required to guarantee the corresponding minimax risk convergence rate of kernel ridge regression, as well as a data-dependent modification which samples features proportional to ridge leverage scores and further reduces the required number of features. As ridge leverage scores are expensive to compute, we devise a simple approximation scheme which provably reduces the computational cost without loss of statistical efficiency.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular technique for hyperparameter learning but typically requires initial exploration even in cases where similar prior tasks have been solved. We propose to transfer information across tasks using learnt representations of training datasets used in those tasks. This results in a joint Gaussian process model on hyperparameters and data representations. Representations make use of the framework of distribution embeddings into reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The developed method has a faster convergence compared to existing baselines, in some cases requiring only a few evaluations of the target objective.

Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not propagate the uncertainty in observations due to sampling variability in the groups. This effectively assumes that small and large groups are estimated equally well, and should have equal weight in the final regression. We account for this uncertainty with a Bayesian distribution regression formalism, improving the robustness and performance of the model when group sizes vary. We frame our models in a neural network style, allowing for simple MAP inference using backpropagation to learn the parameters, as well as MCMC-based inference which can fully propagate uncertainty. We demonstrate our approach on illustrative toy datasets, as well as on a challenging problem of predicting age from images.

Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE) have become very popular techniques to perform inference and learning in latent variable models as they allow us to leverage the rich representational power of neural networks to obtain flexible approximations of the posterior of latent variables as well as tight evidence lower bounds (ELBO). Com- bined with stochastic variational inference, this provides a methodology scaling to large datasets. However, for this methodology to be practically efficient, it is neces- sary to obtain low-variance unbiased estimators of the ELBO and its gradients with respect to the parameters of interest. While the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been previously suggested to achieve this [23, 26], the proposed methods require specifying reverse kernels which have a large impact on performance. Additionally, the resulting unbiased estimator of the ELBO for most MCMC kernels is typically not amenable to the reparameterization trick. We show here how to optimally select reverse kernels in this setting and, by building upon Hamiltonian Importance Sampling (HIS) [17], we obtain a scheme that provides low-variance unbiased estimators of the ELBO and its gradients using the reparameterization trick. This allows us to develop a Hamiltonian Variational Auto-Encoder (HVAE). This method can be re-interpreted as a target-informed normalizing flow [20] which, within our context, only requires a few evaluations of the gradient of the sampled likelihood and trivial Jacobian calculations at each iteration.

While a typical supervised learning framework assumes that the inputs and the outputs are measured at the same levels of granularity, many applications, including global mapping of disease, only have access to outputs at a much coarser level than that of the inputs. Aggregation of outputs makes generalization to new inputs much more difficult. We consider an approach to this problem based on variational learning with a model of output aggregation and Gaussian processes, where aggregation leads to intractability of the standard evidence lower bounds. We propose new bounds and tractable approximations, leading to improved prediction accuracy and scalability to large datasets, while explicitly taking uncertainty into account. We develop a framework which extends to several types of likelihoods, including the Poisson model for aggregated count data. We apply our framework to a challenging and important problem, the fine-scale spatial modelling of malaria incidence, with over 1 million observations.

Discovering the causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many areas of science. In this paper, we propose Kernel Conditional Deviance for Causal Inference (KCDC) a fully nonparametric causal discovery method based on purely observational data. From a novel interpretation of the notion of asymmetry between cause and effect, we derive a corresponding asymmetry measure using the framework of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Based on this, we propose three decision rules for causal discovery. We demonstrate the wide applicability and robustness of our method across a range of diverse synthetic datasets. Furthermore, we test our method on real-world time series data and the real-world benchmark dataset Tübingen Cause-Effect Pairs where we outperform state-of-the-art approaches.

Despite the fundamental nature of the Poisson process in the theory and application of stochastic processes, and its attractive generalizations (e.g. Cox process), few tractable nonparametric modeling approaches exist, especially in high dimensional settings. In this paper we develop a new, computationally tractable Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) formulation for the inhomogeneous Poisson process. We model the square root of the intensity as an RKHS function. The modeling challenge is that the usual representer theorem arguments no longer apply due to the form of the inhomogeneous Poisson process likelihood. However, we prove that the representer theorem does hold in an appropriately transformed RKHS, guaranteeing that the optimization of the penalized likelihood can be cast as a tractable finite-dimensional problem. The resulting approach is simple to implement, and readily scales to high dimensions and large-scale datasets.

Kernel embeddings of distributions and the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), the resulting distance between distributions, are useful tools for fully nonparametric two-sample testing and learning on distributions. However, it is rarely that all possible differences between samples are of interest -- discovered differences can be due to different types of measurement noise, data collection artefacts or other irrelevant sources of variability. We propose distances between distributions which encode invariance to additive symmetric noise, aimed at testing whether the assumed true underlying processes differ. Moreover, we construct invariant features of distributions, leading to learning algorithms robust to the impairment of the input distributions with symmetric additive noise.

Complicated generative models often result in a situation where computing the likelihood of observed data is intractable, while simulating from the conditional density given a parameter value is relatively easy. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a paradigm that enables simulation-based posterior inference in such cases by measuring the similarity between simulated and observed data in terms of a chosen set of summary statistics. However, there is no general rule to construct sufficient summary statistics for complex models. Insufficient summary statistics will leak information, which leads to ABC algorithms yielding samples from an incorrect posterior. In this paper, we propose a fully nonparametric ABC paradigm which circumvents the need for manually selecting summary statistics. Our approach, K2-ABC, uses maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) to construct a dissimilarity measure between the observed and simulated data. The embedding of an empirical distribution of the data into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space plays a role of the summary statistic and is sufficient whenever the corresponding kernels are characteristic. Experiments on a simulated scenario and a real-world biological problem illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

We propose a novel approach for pixel classification in hyperspectral images, leveraging on both the spatial and spectral information in the data. The introduced method relies on a recently proposed framework for learning on distributions - by representing them with mean elements in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) and formulating a classification algorithm therein. In particular, we associate each pixel to an empirical distribution of its neighbouring pixels, a judicious representation of which in an RKHS, in conjunction with the spectral information contained in the pixel itself, give a new explicit set of features that can be fed into a suite of standard classification techniques - we opt for a well established framework of support vector machines (SVM). Furthermore, the computational complexity is reduced via random Fourier features formalism. We study the consistency and the convergence rates of the proposed method and the experiments demonstrate strong performance on hyperspectral data with gains in comparison to the state-of-the-art results.

Performing exact posterior inference in complex generative models is often difficult or impossible due to an expensive to evaluate or intractable likelihood function. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an inference framework that constructs an approximation to the true likelihood based on the similarity between the observed and simulated data as measured by a predefined set of summary statistics. Although the choice of informative problem-specific summary statistics crucially influences the quality of the likelihood approximation and hence also the quality of the posterior sample in ABC, there are only few principled general-purpose approaches to the selection or construction of such summary statistics. In this paper, we develop a novel framework for solving this problem. We model the functional relationship between the data and the optimal choice (with respect to a loss function) of summary statistics using kernel-based distribution regression. Furthermore, we extend our approach to incorporate kernel-based regression from conditional distributions, thus appropriately taking into account the specific structure of the posited generative model. We show that our approach can be implemented in a computationally and statistically efficient way using the random Fourier features framework for large-scale kernel learning. In addition to that, our framework outperforms related methods by a large margin on toy and real-world data, including hierarchical and time series models.

We propose a class of nonparametric two-sample tests with a cost linear in the sample size. Two tests are given, both based on an ensemble of distances between analytic functions representing each of the distributions. The first test uses smoothed empirical characteristic functions to represent the distributions, the second uses distribution embeddings in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Analyticity implies that differences in the distributions may be detected almost surely at a finite number of randomly chosen locations/frequencies. The new tests are consistent against a larger class of alternatives than the previous linear-time tests based on the (non-smoothed) empirical characteristic functions, while being much faster than the current state-of-the-art quadratic-time kernel-based or energy distance-based tests. Experiments on artificial benchmarks and on challenging real-world testing problems demonstrate that our tests give a better power/time tradeoff than competing approaches, and in some cases, better outright power than even the most expensive quadratic-time tests. This performance advantage is retained even in high dimensions, and in cases where the difference in distributions is not observable with low order statistics.

We propose Kernel Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (KMC), a gradient-free adaptive MCMC algorithm based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). On target densities where classical HMC is not an option due to intractable gradients, KMC adaptively learns the target's gradient structure by fitting an exponential family model in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. Computational costs are reduced by two novel efficient approximations to this gradient. While being asymptotically exact, KMC mimics HMC in terms of sampling efficiency, and offers substantial mixing improvements over state-of-the-art gradient free samplers. We support our claims with experimental studies on both toy and real-world applications, including Approximate Bayesian Computation and exact-approximate MCMC.

A Kernel Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is introduced, for the purpose of sampling from a target distribution with strongly nonlinear support. The algorithm embeds the trajectory of the Markov chain into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), such that the feature space covariance of the samples informs the choice of proposal. The procedure is computationally efficient and straightforward to implement, since the RKHS moves can be integrated out analytically: our proposal distribution in the original space is a normal distribution whose mean and covariance depend on where the current sample lies in the support of the target distribution, and adapts to its local covariance structure. Furthermore, the procedure requires neither gradients nor any other higher order information about the target, making it particularly attractive for contexts such as Pseudo-Marginal MCMC. Kernel Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings outperforms competing fixed and adaptive samplers on multivariate, highly nonlinear target distributions, arising in both real-world and synthetic examples.

We introduce kernel nonparametric tests for Lancaster three-variable interaction and for total independence, using embeddings of signed measures into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The resulting test statistics are straightforward to compute, and are used in powerful three-variable interaction tests, which are consistent against all alternatives for a large family of reproducing kernels. We show the Lancaster test to be sensitive to cases where two independent causes individually have weak influence on a third dependent variable, but their combined effect has a strong influence. This makes the Lancaster test especially suited to finding structure in directed graphical models, where it outperforms competing nonparametric tests in detecting such V-structures.

In this paper we consider Basis Pursuit De-Noising (BPDN) problems in which the sparse original signal is drawn from a finite alphabet. To solve this problem we propose an iterative message passing algorithm, which capitalises not only on the sparsity but by means of a prior distribution also on the discrete nature of the original signal. In our numerical experiments we test this algorithm in combination with a Rademacher measurement matrix and a measurement matrix derived from the random demodulator, which enables compressive sampling of analogue signals. Our results show in both cases significant performance gains over a linear programming based approach to the considered BPDN problem. We also compare the proposed algorithm to a similar message passing based algorithm without prior knowledge and observe an even larger performance improvement.

In this paper we introduce a novel modulation and multiplexing method which facilitates highly efficient and simultaneous communication between multiple terminals in wireless ad-hoc networks. We term this method Combinatorial Channel Signature Modulation (CCSM). The CCSM method is particularly efficient in situations where communicating nodes operate in highly time dispersive environments. This is all achieved with a minimal MAC layer overhead, since all users are allowed to transmit and receive at the same time/frequency (full simultaneous duplex). The CCSM method has its roots in sparse modelling and the receiver is based on compressive sampling techniques. Towards this end, we develop a new low complexity algorithm termed Group Subspace Pursuit. Our analysis suggests that CCSM at least doubles the throughput when compared to the state-of-the art.

Abstract Given samples from distributions $p$ and $q$, a two-sample test determines whether to reject the null hypothesis that $p=q$, based on the value of a test statistic measuring the distance between the samples. One choice of test statistic is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which is a distance between embeddings of the probability distributions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The kernel used in obtaining these embeddings is thus critical in ensuring the test has high power, and correctly distinguishes unlike distributions with high probability. A means of parameter selection for the two-sample test based on the MMD is proposed. For a given test level (an upper bound on the probability of making a Type I error), the kernel is chosen so as to maximize the test power, and minimize the probability of making a Type II error. The test statistic, test threshold, and optimization over the kernel parameters are obtained with cost linear in the sample size. These properties make the kernel selection and test procedures suited to data streams, where the observations cannot all be stored in memory. In experiments, the new kernel selection approach yields a more powerful test than earlier kernel selection heuristics.

In this contribution, we consider design of distributed LT codes, i.e., independent rateless encodings of multiple sources which communicate to a common relay, where relay is able to combine incoming packets from the sources and forwards them to receivers. We provide density evolution formulae for distributed LT codes, which allow us to formulate distributed LT code design problem and prove the equivalence of performance of distributed LT codes and LT codes with related parameters in the asymptotic regime. Furthermore, we demonstrate that allowing LT coding apparatus at both the sources and the relay may prove advantageous to coding only at the sources and coding only at the relay.

A novel approach to provide unequal error protection (UEP) using rateless codes over erasure channels, named Expanding Window Fountain (EWF) codes, is developed and discussed. EWF codes use a windowing technique rather than a weighted (non-uniform) selection of input symbols to achieve UEP property. The windowing approach introduces additional parameters in the UEP rateless code design, making it more general and flexible than the weighted approach. Furthermore, the windowing approach provides better performance of UEP scheme, which is confirmed both theoretically and experimentally.

Fountain codes were introduced as an efficient and universal forward error correction (FEC) solution for data multicast over lossy packet networks. They have recently been proposed for large scale multimedia content delivery in practical multimedia distribution systems. However, standard fountain codes, such as LT or Raptor codes, are not designed to meet unequal error protection (UEP) requirements typical in real-time scalable video multicast applications. In this paper, we propose recently introduced UEP expanding window fountain (EWF) codes as a flexible and efficient solution for real-time scalable video multicast. We demonstrate that the design flexibility and UEP performance make EWF codes ideally suited for this scenario, i.e., EWF codes offer a number of design parameters to be “tuned” at the server side to meet the different reception criteria of heterogeneous receivers. The performance analysis using both analytical results and simulation experiments of H.264 scalable video coding (SVC) multicast to heterogeneous receiver classes confirms the flexibility and efficiency of the proposed EWF-based FEC solution.

Fountain codes are a robust solution for data multicasting to a large number of receivers which experience variable channel conditions and different packet loss rates. However, the standard fountain code design becomes inefficient if all receivers have access to some side information correlated with the source information. We focus our attention on the cases where the correlation of the source and side information can be modelled by a binary erasure channel (BEC) or by a binary input additive white Gaussian noise channel (BIAWGNC). We analyse the performance of fountain codes in data multicasting with side information for these cases, derive bounds on their performance and provide a fast and robust linear programming optimization framework for code parameters. We demonstrate that systematic Raptor code design can be employed as a possible solution to the problem at the cost of higher encoding/decoding complexity, as it reduces the side information scenario to a channel coding problem. However, our results also indicate that a simpler solution, non-systematic LT and Raptor codes, can be designed to perform close to the information theoretic bounds.

In this contribution, duals of fountain codes are introduced and their use for lossy source compression is investigated. It is shown both theoretically and experimentally that the source coding dual of the binary erasure channel coding problem, binary erasure quantization, is solved at a nearly optimal rate with application of duals of LT and raptor codes by a belief propagation-like algorithm which amounts to a graph pruning procedure. Furthermore, this quantizing scheme is rate adaptive, i.e., its rate can be modified on-the-fly in order to adapt to the source distribution, very much like LT and raptor codes are able to adapt their rate to the erasure probability of a channel.

In this contribution, we consider the application of digital fountain (DF) codes to the problem of data transmission when side information is available at the decoder. The side information is modelled as a "virtual" channel output when original information sequence is the input. For two cases of the system model, which model both the virtual and the actual transmission channel either as a binary erasure channel or as a binary input additive white Gaussian noise (BIAWGN) channel, we propose methods of enhancing the design of standard non-systematic DF codes by optimizing their output degree distribution based on the side information assumption. In addition, a systematic Raptor design has been employed as a possible solution to the problem.

Digital Fountain (DF) codes have recently been suggested as an efficient forward error correction (FEC) solution for video multicast to heterogeneous receiver classes over lossy packet networks. However, to adapt DF codes to low-delay constraints and varying importance of scalable multimedia content, unequal error protection (UEP) DF schemes are needed. Thus, in this paper, Expanding Window Fountain (EWF) codes are proposed as a FEC solution for scalable video multicast. We demonstrate that the design flexibility and UEP performancemake EWF codes ideally suited for this scenario, i.e., EWF codes offer a number of design parameters to be “tuned” at the server side to meet the different reception conditions of heterogeneous receivers. Performance analysis of H.264 Scalable Video Coding (SVC) multicast to heterogeneous receiver classes confirms the flexibility and efficiency of the proposed EWF-based FEC solution.

In this contribution, we construct two novel IR-HARQ (automatic repeat request) schemes based on fountain codes, which combine the punctured and rateless IR-HARQ schemes, in order to attain the advantageous properties of both: nearly optimal performance of the former at the high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) region and ratelessness of the latter. The preliminary simulation results indicate that these schemes are particularly suitable for scenarios where the transmission is originally assumed to occur at the very high SNR region, but resilience to severe deterioration of channel conditions is required.