Abstract The development of causal prediction models is challenged by the fact that the outcome is only observable for the applied (factual) intervention and not for its alternatives (the so-called counterfactuals); in medicine we only know patients’ survival for the administered drug and not for other therapeutic options. Machine learning approaches for counterfactual reasoning have to deal with both unobserved outcomes and distributional differences due to non-random treatment administration. Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) addresses similar issues; one has to deal with unobserved outcomes—the labels of the target domain—and distributional differences between source and target domain. We propose Adversarial Distribution Balancing for Counterfactual Reasoning (ADBCR), which directly uses potential outcome estimates of the counterfactuals to remove spurious causal relations. We show that ADBCR outcompetes state-of-the-art methods on three benchmark datasets, and demonstrate that ADBCR’s performance can be further improved if unlabeled validation data are included in the training procedure to better adapt the model to the validation domain.

Federated Learning (FL) facilitates distributed model development to aggregate multiple confidential data sources. The information transfer among clients can be compromised by distributional differences, i.e., by non-i.i.d. data. A particularly challenging scenario is the federated model adaptation to a target client without access to annotated data. We propose Federated Adaptive Cross Training (FACT), which uses the implicit domain differences between source clients to identify domain shifts in the target domain. In each round of FL, FACT cross initializes a pair of source clients to generate domain specialized representations which are then used to enforce a domain invariant data representation. We empirically show that FACT outperforms both state-of-the-art federated and non-federated models on three popular multi-source-single-target benchmarks, and achieves highly competitive performance on single-source-single-target experiments. We further study FACT’s behavior with respect to communication restrictions and the number of participating clients.

MOTIVATION: The inference of cellular compositions from bulk and spatial transcriptomics data increasingly complements data analyses. Multiple computational approaches were suggested and recently, machine learning techniques were developed to systematically improve estimates. Such approaches allow to infer additional, less abundant cell types. However, they rely on training data which do not capture the full biological diversity encountered in transcriptomics analyses; data can contain cellular contributions not seen in the training data and as such, analyses can be biased or blurred. Thus, computational approaches have to deal with unknown, hidden contributions. Moreover, most methods are based on cellular archetypes which serve as a reference; e.g. a generic T-cell profile is used to infer the proportion of T-cells. It is well known that cells adapt their molecular phenotype to the environment and that pre-specified cell archetypes can distort the inference of cellular compositions. RESULTS: We propose Adaptive Digital Tissue Deconvolution (ADTD) to estimate cellular proportions of pre-selected cell types together with possibly unknown and hidden background contributions. Moreover, ADTD adapts prototypic reference profiles to the molecular environment of the cells, which further resolves cell-type specific gene regulation from bulk transcriptomics data. We verify this in simulation studies and demonstrate that ADTD improves existing approaches in estimating cellular compositions. In an application to bulk transcriptomics data from breast cancer patients, we demonstrate that ADTD provides insights into cell-type specific molecular differences between breast cancer subtypes. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: A python implementation of ADTD and a tutorial are available at Gitlab and zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.7548362).

MOTIVATION: High-throughput screens (HTS) provide a powerful tool to decipher the causal effects of chemical and genetic perturbations on cancer cell lines. Their ability to evaluate a wide spectrum of interventions, from single drugs to intricate drug combinations and CRISPR-interference, has established them as an invaluable resource for the development of novel therapeutic approaches. Nevertheless, the combinatorial complexity of potential interventions makes a comprehensive exploration intractable. Hence, prioritizing interventions for further experimental investigation becomes of utmost importance. RESULTS: We propose CODEX (COunterfactual Deep learning for the in silico EXploration of cancer cell line perturbations) as a general framework for the causal modeling of HTS data, linking perturbations to their downstream consequences. CODEX relies on a stringent causal modeling strategy based on counterfactual reasoning. As such, CODEX predicts drug-specific cellular responses, comprising cell survival and molecular alterations, and facilitates the in silico exploration of drug combinations. This is achieved for both bulk and single-cell HTS. We further show that CODEX provides a rationale to explore complex genetic modifications from CRISPR-interference in silico in single cells. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Our implementation of CODEX is publicly available at https://github.com/sschrod/CODEX. All data used in this article are publicly available.

MOTIVATION: Estimating the effects of interventions on patient outcome is one of the key aspects of personalized medicine. Their inference is often challenged by the fact that the training data comprises only the outcome for the administered treatment, and not for alternative treatments (the so-called counterfactual outcomes). Several methods were suggested for this scenario based on observational data, i.e. data where the intervention was not applied randomly, for both continuous and binary outcome variables. However, patient outcome is often recorded in terms of time-to-event data, comprising right-censored event times if an event does not occur within the observation period. Albeit their enormous importance, time-to-event data are rarely used for treatment optimization. We suggest an approach named BITES (Balanced Individual Treatment Effect for Survival data), which combines a treatment-specific semi-parametric Cox loss with a treatment-balanced deep neural network; i.e. we regularize differences between treated and non-treated patients using Integral Probability Metrics (IPM). RESULTS: We show in simulation studies that this approach outperforms the state of the art. Furthermore, we demonstrate in an application to a cohort of breast cancer patients that hormone treatment can be optimized based on six routine parameters. We successfully validated this finding in an independent cohort. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: We provide BITES as an easy-to-use python implementation including scheduled hyper-parameter optimization (https://github.com/sschrod/BITES). The data underlying this article are available in the CRAN repository at https://rdrr.io/cran/survival/man/gbsg.html and https://rdrr.io/cran/survival/man/rotterdam.html. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.