BACKGROUND: Estimating the time since HIV infection (TSI) at population level is essential for tracking changes in the global HIV epidemic. Most methods for determining TSI give a binary classification of infections as recent or non-recent within a window of several months, and cannot assess the cumulative impact of an intervention. RESULTS: We developed a Random Forest Regression model, HIV-phyloTSI, which combines measures of within-host diversity and divergence to generate continuous TSI estimates directly from viral deep-sequencing data, with no need for additional variables. HIV-phyloTSI provides a continuous measure of TSI up to 9 years, with a mean absolute error of less than 12 months overall and less than 5 months for infections with a TSI of up to a year. It performs equally well for all major HIV subtypes based on data from African and European cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how HIV-phyloTSI can be used for incidence estimates on a population level.

MOTIVATION: Target enrichment strategies generate genomic data from multiple pathogens in a single process, greatly improving sensitivity over metagenomic sequencing and enabling cost-effective, high-throughput surveillance and clinical applications. However, uptake by research and clinical laboratories is constrained by an absence of computational tools that are specifically designed for the analysis of multi-pathogen enrichment sequence data. Here we present an analysis pipeline, Castanet, for use with multi-pathogen enrichment sequencing data. Castanet is designed to work with short-read data produced by existing targeted enrichment strategies, but can be readily deployed on any BAM file generated by another methodology. Also included are an optional graphical interface and installer script. RESULTS: In addition to genome reconstruction, Castanet reports method-specific metrics that enable quantification of capture efficiency, estimation of pathogen load, differentiation of low-level positives from contamination, and assessment of sequencing quality. Castanet can be used as a traditional end-to-end pipeline for consensus generation, but its strength lies in the ability to process a flexible, pre-defined set of pathogens of interest directly from multi-pathogen enrichment experiments. In our tests, Castanet consensus sequences were accurate reconstructions of reference sequences, including in instances where multiple strains of the same pathogen were present. Castanet performs effectively on standard computers and can process the entire output of a 96-sample enrichment sequencing run (50M reads) using a single batch process command, in $<$2 h. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Source code freely available under GPL-3 license at https://github.com/MultipathogenGenomics/castanet, implemented in Python 3.10 and supported in Ubuntu Linux 22.04. The data underlying this article are available in Europe Nucleotide Archives, at https://www.ebi.ac.uk/ena/browser/view/PRJEB77004.

SARS-CoV-2 has spread across the world, causing high mortality and unprecedented restrictions on social and economic activity. Policymakers are assessing how best to navigate through the ongoing epidemic, with computational models being used to predict the spread of infection and assess the impact of public health measures. Here, we present OpenABM-Covid19: an agent-based simulation of the epidemic including detailed age-stratification and realistic social networks. By default the model is parameterised to UK demographics and calibrated to the UK epidemic, however, it can easily be re-parameterised for other countries. OpenABM-Covid19 can evaluate non-pharmaceutical interventions, including both manual and digital contact tracing, and vaccination programmes. It can simulate a population of 1 million people in seconds per day, allowing parameter sweeps and formal statistical model-based inference. The code is open-source and has been developed by teams both inside and outside academia, with an emphasis on formal testing, documentation, modularity and transparency. A key feature of OpenABM-Covid19 are its Python and R interfaces, which has allowed scientists and policymakers to simulate dynamic packages of interventions and help compare options to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic.