In intelligent driving, situational assessment (SA) is an important technology, which helps to improve the cognitive ability of intelligent vehicles in the environment. Uncertainty analysis is very significant in situation assessment. This article proposes an SA method based on uncertainty risk analysis. Under uncertain conditions, according to the random environment model and Gaussian distribution model, the collision probability between multiple vehicles is estimated by comprehensive trajectory prediction. The proposed method considers collision probabilities of different prediction points within and outside the prediction range and obtains long-term accurate prediction results. The method is suitable for the situation risk assessment of sensor systems in the presence of unexpected dynamic obstacles, sensor failures or communication losses in traffic, and different environmental sensing accuracy. The experimental results show that in the dynamic traffic environment, the proposed scenario assessment method can not only accurately predict and assess the situation risks within the prediction range, but also provide accurate scenario risk assessment outside the prediction range.