As the need for personal authentication increases, many people are turning to biometric authentication as an alternative to traditional security devices. Concurrently, users and vendors of biometric authentication systems are searching for methods to establish system performance. This paper presents a model that defines the parameters necessary to estimate the performance of fingerprint-authentication systems without going through the rigors of intensive system testing inherent in establishing error rates. The model presented here was developed to predict the performance of the pore-based automated fingerprint-matching routine developed internally in the research and development division at the National Security Agency. This paper also discusses the statistics of fingerprint pores and the efficacy of using pores in addition to the traditionally used minutiae to improve system performance. In addition this paper links together the realms of automated matching and statistical evaluations of fingerprint features. The results of this link provides knowledge of practical performance limits of any automated matching routine that utilizes pores or minutia features.