Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0.

Open source software (OSS) underpins modern software infrastructure, yet many projects struggle with long-term sustainability. We introduce OSSPREY, an AI-powered platform that can predict the sustainability of any GitHub-hosted project. OSSPREY collects longitudinal socio-technical data, such as: commits, issues, and contributor interactions, and uses a transformer-based model to generate month-by-month sustainability forecasts. When project downturns are detected, it recommends evidence-based interventions drawn from published software engineering studies. OSSPREY integrates scraping, forecasting, and actionable guidance into an interactive dashboard, enabling maintainers to monitor project health, anticipate decline, and respond with targeted strategies. By connecting real-time project data with research-backed insights, OSSPREY offers a practical tool for sustaining OSS projects at scale.The codebase is linked to the project website at: https://oss-prey.github.io/OSSPREY-Website/The screencast is available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7a0v4hPylU

We introduce a new model for multivariate probabilistic time series prediction, designed to flexibly address a range of tasks including forecasting, interpolation, and their combinations. Building on copula theory, we propose a simplified objective for the recently-introduced transformer-based attentional copulas (TACTiS), wherein the number of distributional parameters now scales linearly with the number of variables instead of factorially. The new objective requires the introduction of a training curriculum, which goes hand-in-hand with necessary changes to the original architecture. We show that the resulting model has significantly better training dynamics and achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse real-world forecasting tasks, while maintaining the flexibility of prior work, such as seamless handling of unaligned and unevenly-sampled time series. Code is made available at https://github.com/ServiceNow/TACTiS.

Out-of-distribution (O.O.D.) generalization remains to be a key challenge for real-world machine learning systems. We describe a method for O.O.D. generalization that, through training, encourages models to only preserve features in the network that are well reused across multiple training domains. Our method combines two complementary neuron-level regularizers with a probabilistic differentiable binary mask over the network, to extract a modular sub-network that achieves better O.O.D. performance than the original network. Preliminary evaluation on two benchmark datasets corroborates the promise of our method.

Yizhong Wang, Swaroop Mishra, Pegah Alipoormolabashi, Yeganeh Kordi, Amirreza Mirzaei, Atharva Naik, Arjun Ashok, Arut Selvan Dhanasekaran, Anjana Arunkumar, David Stap, Eshaan Pathak, Giannis Karamanolakis, Haizhi Lai, Ishan Purohit, Ishani Mondal, Jacob Anderson, Kirby Kuznia, Krima Doshi, Kuntal Kumar Pal, Maitreya Patel, Mehrad Moradshahi, Mihir Parmar, Mirali Purohit, Neeraj Varshney, Phani Rohitha Kaza, Pulkit Verma, Ravsehaj Singh Puri, Rushang Karia, Savan Doshi, Shailaja Keyur Sampat, Siddhartha Mishra, Sujan Reddy A, Sumanta Patro, Tanay Dixit, Xudong Shen. Proceedings of the 2022 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing. 2022.