Most work on causality in machine learning assumes that causal relationships are driven by a constant underlying process. However, the flexibility of agents' actions or tipping points in the environmental process can change the qualitative dynamics of the system. As a result, new causal relationships may emerge, while existing ones change or disappear, resulting in an altered causal graph. To analyze these qualitative changes on the causal graph, we propose the concept of meta-causal states, which groups classical causal models into clusters based on equivalent qualitative behavior and consolidates specific mechanism parameterizations. We demonstrate how meta-causal states can be inferred from observed agent behavior, and discuss potential methods for disentangling these states from unlabeled data. Finally, we direct our analysis towards the application of a dynamical system, showing that meta-causal states can also emerge from inherent system dynamics, and thus constitute more than a context-dependent framework in which mechanisms emerge only as a result of external factors.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) enable us to learn joint distributions over a set of random variables and to perform various probabilistic queries in a tractable fashion. Though the tractability property allows PCs to scale beyond non-tractable models such as Bayesian Networks, scaling training and inference of PCs to larger, real-world datasets remains challenging. To remedy the situation, we show how PCs can be learned across multiple machines by recursively partitioning a distributed dataset, thereby unveiling a deep connection between PCs and federated learning (FL). This leads to federated circuits (FCs)—a novel and flexible federated learning (FL) framework that (1) allows one to scale PCs on distributed learning environments (2) train PCs faster and (3) unifies for the first time horizontal, vertical, and hybrid FL in one framework by re-framing FL as a density estimation problem over distributed datasets. We demonstrate FC’s capability to scale PCs on various large-scale datasets. Also, we show FC’s versatility in handling horizontal, vertical, and hybrid FL within a unified framework on multiple classification tasks.

Structure learning is a crucial task in science, especially in fields such as medicine and biology, where the wrong identification of (in)dependencies among random variables can have significant implications. The primary objective of structure learning is to learn a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) that represents the underlying probability distribution of the data. Many prominent DAG learners rely on least square losses or log-likelihood losses for optimization. It is well-known from regression models that least square losses are heavily influenced by the scale of the variables. Recently it has been demonstrated that the scale of data also affects performance of structure learning algorithms, though with a strong focus on linear 2-node systems and simulated data. Moving beyond these results, we provide conditions under which square-based losses are minimal for wrong DAGs in $d$-dimensional cases. Furthermore, we also show that scale can impair performance of structure learners if relations among variables are non-linear for both square based and log-likelihood based losses. We confirm our theoretical findings through extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data.