While deep learning models often achieve high predictive accuracy, their predictions typically do not come with any provable guarantees on risk or reliability, which are critical for deployment in high-stakes applications. The framework of conformal risk control (CRC) provides a distribution-free, finite-sample method for controlling the expected value of any bounded monotone loss function and can be conveniently applied post-hoc to any pre-trained deep learning model. However, many real-world applications are sensitive to tail risks, as opposed to just expected loss. In this work, we develop a method for controlling the general class of Optimized Certainty-Equivalent (OCE) risks, a broad class of risk measures which includes as special cases the expected loss (generalizing the original CRC method) and common tail risks like the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Furthermore, standard post-hoc CRC can degrade average-case performance due to its lack of feedback to the model. To address this, we introduce "conformal risk training," an end-to-end approach that differentiates through conformal OCE risk control _during model training or fine-tuning_. Our method achieves provable risk guarantees while demonstrating significantly improved average-case performance over post-hoc approaches on applications to controlling classifiers' false negative rate and controlling financial risk in battery storage operation.

We study the design of risk-sensitive online algorithms, in which risk measures are used in the competitive analysis of randomized online algorithms. We introduce the CVaR$_\delta$-competitive ratio ($\delta$-CR) using the conditional value-at-risk of an algorithm’s cost, which measures the expectation of the $(1-\delta)$-fraction of worst outcomes against the offline optimal cost, and use this measure to study three online optimization problems: continuous-time ski rental, discrete-time ski rental, and one-max search. The structure of the optimal $\delta$-CR and algorithm varies significantly between problems: we prove that the optimal $\delta$-CR for continuous-time ski rental is $2-2^{-\Theta(\frac{1}{1-\delta})}$, obtained by an algorithm described by a delay differential equation. In contrast, in discrete-time ski rental with buying cost $B$, there is an abrupt phase transition at $\delta = 1 - \Theta(\frac{1}{\log B})$, after which the classic deterministic strategy is optimal. Similarly, one-max search exhibits a phase transition at $\delta = \frac{1}{2}$, after which the classic deterministic strategy is optimal; we also obtain an algorithm that is asymptotically optimal as $\delta \todown 0$ that arises as the solution to a delay differential equation.

The burgeoning field of algorithms with predictions studies the problem of using possibly imperfect machine learning predictions to improve online algorithm performance. While nearly all existing algorithms in this framework make no assumptions on prediction quality, a number of methods providing uncertainty quantification (UQ) on machine learning models have been developed in recent years, which could enable additional information about prediction quality at decision time. In this work, we investigate the problem of optimally utilizing uncertainty-quantified predictions in the design of online algorithms. In particular, we study two classic online problems, ski rental and online search, where the decision-maker is provided predictions augmented with UQ describing the likelihood of the ground truth falling within a particular range of values. We demonstrate that non-trivial modifications to algorithm design are needed to fully leverage the UQ predictions. Moreover, we consider how to utilize more general forms of UQ, proposing an online learning framework that learns to exploit UQ to make decisions in multi-instance settings.

We introduce and study a family of online metric problems with long-term constraints. In these problems, an online player makes decisions $\mathbf{x}_t$ in a metric space $(X,d)$ to simultaneously minimize their hitting cost $f_t(\mathbf{x}_t)$ and switching cost as determined by the metric. Over the time horizon $T$, the player must satisfy a long-term demand constraint $\sum_t c(\mathbf{x}_t) \geq 1$, where $c(\mathbf{x}_t)$ denotes the fraction of demand satisfied at time $t$. Such problems can find a wide array of applications to online resource allocation in sustainable energy/computing systems. We devise optimal competitive and learning-augmented algorithms for the case of bounded hitting cost gradients and weighted $\ell_1$ metrics, and further show that our proposed algorithms perform well in numerical experiments.

The primary objective of adaptive bitrate (ABR) streaming is to enhance users' quality of experience (QoE) by dynamically adjusting the video bitrate in response to changing network conditions. However, users often find frequent bitrate switching frustrating due to the resulting inconsistency in visual quality over time, especially during live streaming when buffer lengths are short. In this paper, we propose a practical smoothness optimized dynamic adaptive (SODA) controller that specifically addresses this problem while remaining deployable. SODA is backed by theoretical guarantees and has shown superior performance in empirical evaluations. Specifically, our numerical simulations show a 9.55% to 27.8% QoE improvement and our prototype evaluation shows a 30.4% QoE improvement compared to the state-of-the-art baselines. In order to be widely deployable, SODA performs bitrate horizon planning in polynomial time compared to brute force approaches that suffer from exponential complexity. To demonstrate its real-world practicality, we deployed SODA on a wide range of devices within the production network of Amazon Prime Video. Production experiments show that SODA reduced bitrate switching by up to 88.8% and increased average stream viewing duration by up to 5.91% compared to a fine-tuned production baseline.

We examine the problem of designing learning-augmented algorithms for metrical task systems (MTS) that exploit machine-learned advice while maintaining rigorous, worst-case guarantees on performance. We propose an algorithm, DART, that achieves this dual objective, providing cost within a multiplicative factor $(1+\epsilon)$ of the machine-learned advice (i.e., consistency) while ensuring cost within a multiplicative factor $2^{O(1/\epsilon)}$ of a baseline robust algorithm (i.e., robustness) for any $\epsilon > 0$. We show that this exponential tradeoff between consistency and robustness is unavoidable in general, but that in important subclasses of MTS, such as when the metric space has bounded diameter and in the $k$-server problem, our algorithm achieves improved, polynomial tradeoffs between consistency and robustness.

The lack of standardized benchmarks for reinforcement learning (RL) in sustainability applications has made it difficult to both track progress on specific domains and identify bottlenecks for researchers to focus their efforts. In this paper, we present SustainGym, a suite of five environments designed to test the performance of RL algorithms on realistic sustainable energy system tasks, ranging from electric vehicle charging to carbon-aware data center job scheduling. The environments test RL algorithms under realistic distribution shifts as well as in multi-agent settings. We show that standard off-the-shelf RL algorithms leave significant room for improving performance and highlight the challenges ahead for introducing RL to real-world sustainability tasks.

We consider the problem of convex function chasing with black-box advice, where an online decision-maker aims to minimize the total cost of making and switching between decisions in a normed vector space, aided by black-box advice such as the decisions of a machine-learned algorithm. The decision-maker seeks cost comparable to the advice when it performs well, known as \emph{consistency}, while also ensuring worst-case \emph{robustness} even when the advice is adversarial. We first consider the common paradigm of algorithms that switch between the decisions of the advice and a competitive algorithm, showing that no algorithm in this class can improve upon 3-consistency while staying robust. We then propose two novel algorithms that bypass this limitation by exploiting the problem’s convexity. The first, $\textsc{Interp}$, achieves $(\sqrt{2}+\epsilon)$-consistency and $\mathcal{O}(\frac{C}{\epsilon^2})$-robustness for any $\epsilon > 0$, where $C$ is the competitive ratio of an algorithm for convex function chasing or a subclass thereof. The second, $\textsc{BdInterp}$, achieves $(1+\epsilon)$-consistency and $\mathcal{O}(\frac{CD}{\epsilon})$-robustness when the problem has bounded diameter $D$. Further, we show that $\textsc{BdInterp}$ achieves near-optimal consistency-robustness trade-off for the special case where cost functions are $\alpha$-polyhedral.