Demonstration venue · read-only. Every page can be browsed; the buttons that would change it are switched off. Create an account to run TaxoReview on your own data. A simulation from public publication records: the people listed were not invited and did not agree to review.
? Tutorial for this page

Tristan Xiao

dblp:323/5168 · DBLP profile ↗
← Back
1ranked-venue papers
0as first author
1since 2021 · last 2022
—ORCID · none

Domains — the database's venue-derived domains; a paper can count in several

Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 1 · 1 since 2021

Expertise — from the expertise taxonomy: the topics of the expert's papers under the CCF categories. A weight counts papers with recency: 1 for a paper about the topic, 0.3 when the topic is its context, halved every five years.

Artificial intelligence
1 paper
Information extraction and text analysis · 62% Language models and text generation · 19% Trustworthy machine learning · 19%

Topics — the 3 heaviest of 4, each with the papers that count most for it

TopicWeightPapersLastEvidence papers
Natural language and speech › Information extraction and text analysis › event analysis
event prediction
0.612022
Forecasting Future World Events With Neural Networks · NeurIPS 2022
Machine learning › Trustworthy machine learning
calibration
0.212022
Forecasting Future World Events With Neural Networks · NeurIPS 2022
Natural language and speech › Language models and text generation › natural language understanding › question answering
numerical question answering
0.212022
Forecasting Future World Events With Neural Networks · NeurIPS 2022

Methods — techniques the papers use, named apart from their topics

news corpus retrieval · 0.6language model · 0.6
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2022 Forecasting Future World Events With Neural Networks
abstract
Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.
Andy Zou, Tristan Xiao, Ryan Jia, Joe Kwon, Mantas Mazeika, Dawn Song, Jacob Steinhardt, Owain Evans, Dan Hendrycks
NeurIPS2