Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) is a recently proposed statistical inference technique for parameter estimation that leverages pseudo-labels on both labeled and unlabeled data to construct an unbiased, low-variance estimator. In this work, we extend its core idea to semi-supervised learning (SSL) for model training, introducing a novel unbiased gradient estimator. This extension addresses a key challenge in SSL: while unlabeled data can improve model performance, its benefit heavily depends on the quality of pseudo-labels. Inaccurate pseudo-labels can introduce bias, leading to suboptimal models. To balance the contributions of labeled and pseudo-labeled data, we utilize an interpolation parameter and tune it on the fly, alongside the model parameters, using a one-dimensional online learning algorithm. We verify the practical advantage of our approach through experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, demonstrating improved performance over classic SSL baselines and PPI methods that tune the interpolation parameter offline.

We present a novel approach for test-time adaptation via online self-training, consisting of two components. First, we introduce a statistical framework that detects distribution shifts in the classifier's entropy values obtained on a stream of unlabeled samples. Second, we devise an online adaptation mechanism that utilizes the evidence of distribution shifts captured by the detection tool to dynamically update the classifier's parameters. The resulting adaptation process drives the distribution of test entropy values obtained from the self-trained classifier to match those of the source domain, building invariance to distribution shifts. This approach departs from the conventional self-training method, which focuses on minimizing the classifier's entropy. Our approach combines concepts in betting martingales and online learning to form a detection tool capable of quickly reacting to distribution shifts. We then reveal a tight relation between our adaptation scheme and optimal transport, which forms the basis of our novel self-supervised loss. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach improves test-time accuracy under distribution shifts while maintaining accuracy and calibration in their absence, outperforming leading entropy minimization methods across various scenarios.

This paper develops a model-free sequential test for conditional independence. The proposed test allows researchers to analyze an incoming i.i.d. data stream with any arbitrary dependency structure, and safely conclude whether a feature is conditionally associated with the response under study. We allow the processing of data points online, as soon as they arrive, and stop data acquisition once significant results are detected, rigorously controlling the type-I error rate. Our test can work with any sophisticated machine learning algorithm to enhance data efficiency to the extent possible. The developed method is inspired by two statistical frameworks. The first is the model-X conditional randomization test, a test for conditional independence that is valid in offline settings where the sample size is fixed in advance. The second is testing by betting, a “game-theoretic” approach for sequential hypothesis testing. We conduct synthetic experiments to demonstrate the advantage of our test over out-of-the-box sequential tests that account for the multiplicity of tests in the time horizon, and demonstrate the practicality of our proposal by applying it to real-world tasks.