The recent surge in solar plant installations has notably decreased the reliance on fossil fuels while also presenting significant challenges to power grid. Therefore, the accurate forecasting of centralized and distributed solar power has become critically important. Although site-specific forecasting models typically perform better for utility-scale solar power plants, the model maintenance can be troublesome as the number of solar plants grows. Furthermore, the rapid growth and difficulties in real-time data collection associated with distributed solar systems exacerbate the complexity of regional gross solar power forecasting. To address these issues, we propose SolarMAE, a unified regional solar power forecasting framework enabling end-to-end precise forecasting for both centralized and distributed solar systems. It adopts masked autoencoder (MAE) pre-training strategy for numerical weather prediction (NWP) reconstruction at first, aiming to derive spatiotemporal correlations within meteorological variables, and then fine-tunes a temporal convolutional neural network which predicts future solar power generation. Experiments show that this framework outperforms state-of-the-art centralized or distributed solar power forecasting methods in accuracy, and significantly reduces model maintenance cost. It also demonstrates strong few-shot learning capabilities, which is particularly useful for the cold start problem of newly installed solar plants. The unified solar power forecasting system has been deployed in a province in eastern China, serving solar systems with over 73 GW gross installed capacity and more than 400 centralized solar plants.

Accurate solar power forecasting is crucial to integrate photovoltaic plants into the electric grid, schedule and secure the power grid safety. This problem becomes more demanding for those newly installed solar plants which lack sufficient operational data. Current research predominantly relies on historical solar power data or numerical weather prediction in a single-modality format, ignoring the complementary information provided in different modalities. In this paper, we propose a multi-modality fusion framework to integrate historical power data, numerical weather prediction, and satellite images, significantly improving forecast performance. We introduce a vector quantized framework that aligns modalities with varying information densities, striking a balance between integrating sufficient information and averting model overfitting. Our framework demonstrates strong zero-shot forecasting capability, which is especially useful for those newly installed plants. Moreover, we collect and release a multi-modal solar power (MMSP) dataset from real-world plants to further promote the research of multi-modal solar forecasting algorithms. Our extensive experiments show that our model not only operates with robustness but also boosts accuracy in both zero-shot forecasting and scenarios rich with training data, surpassing leading models. We have incorporated it into our eForecaster platform and deployed it for more than 300 solar plants with a total capacity of over 15GW. Our code and dataset are accessible at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/FusionSF.git.

Electricity forecasting is crucial in scheduling and planning of future electric load, so as to improve the reliability and safeness of the power grid. Despite recent developments of forecasting algorithms in the machine learning community, there is a lack of general and advanced algorithms specifically considering requirements from the power industry perspective. In this paper, we present eForecaster, a unified AI platform including robust, flexible, and explainable machine learning algorithms for diversified electricity forecasting applications. Since Oct. 2021, multiple commercial bus load, system load, and renewable energy forecasting systems built upon eForecaster have been deployed in seven provinces of China. The deployed systems consistently reduce the average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 39.8% to 77.0%, with reduced manual work and explainable guidance. In particular, eForecaster also integrates multiple interpretation methods to uncover the working mechanism of the predictive models, which significantly improves forecasts adoption and user satisfaction.

Time series forecasting is a critical and challenging problem in many real applications. Recently, Transformer-based models prevail in time series forecasting due to their advancement in long-range dependencies learning. Besides, some models introduce series decomposition to further unveil reliable yet plain temporal dependencies. Unfortunately, few models could handle complicated periodical patterns, such as multiple periods, variable periods, and phase shifts in real-world datasets. Meanwhile, the notorious quadratic complexity of dot-product attentions hampers long sequence modeling. To address these challenges, we design an innovative framework Quaternion Transformer (Quatformer), along with three major components: 1). learning-to-rotate attention (LRA) based on quaternions which introduces learnable period and phase information to depict intricate periodical patterns. 2). trend normalization to normalize the series representations in hidden layers of the model considering the slowly varying characteristic of trend. 3). decoupling LRA using global memory to achieve linear complexity without losing prediction accuracy. We evaluate our framework on multiple real-world time series datasets and observe an average 8.1% and up to 18.5% MSE improvement over the best state-of-the-art baseline.