Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative frameworks by progressively adding noise to data through a forward process and then reversing this process to generate realistic samples. While these models have achieved strong performance across various tasks and modalities, their application to temporal predictive learning remains underexplored. Existing approaches treat predictive learning as a conditional generation problem, but often fail to fully exploit the temporal dynamics inherent in the data, leading to challenges in generating temporally coherent sequences. To address this, we introduce Dynamical Diffusion (DyDiff), a theoretically sound framework that incorporates temporally aware forward and reverse processes. Dynamical Diffusion explicitly models temporal transitions at each diffusion step, establishing dependencies on preceding states to better capture temporal dynamics. Through the reparameterization trick, Dynamical Diffusion achieves efficient training and inference similar to any standard diffusion model. Extensive experiments across scientific spatiotemporal forecasting, video prediction, and time series forecasting demonstrate that Dynamical Diffusion consistently improves performance in temporal predictive tasks, filling a crucial gap in existing methodologies. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/dynamical-diffusion.

Multi-domain learning (MDL) aims to train a model with minimal average risk across multiple overlapping but non-identical domains. To tackle the challenges of dataset bias and domain domination, numerous MDL approaches have been proposed from the perspectives of seeking commonalities by aligning distributions to reduce domain gap or reserving differences by implementing domain-specific towers, gates, and even experts. MDL models are becoming more and more complex with sophisticated network architectures or loss functions, introducing extra parameters and enlarging computation costs. In this paper, we propose a frustratingly easy and hyperparameter-free multi-domain learning method named Decoupled Training (D-Train). D-Train is a tri-phase general-to-specific training strategy that first pre-trains on all domains to warm up a root model, then post-trains on each domain by splitting into multi-heads, and finally fine-tunes the heads by fixing the backbone, enabling decouple training to achieve domain independence. Despite its extraordinary simplicity and efficiency, D-Train performs remarkably well in extensive evaluations of various datasets from standard benchmarks to applications of satellite imagery and recommender systems.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theroy, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and Hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks, and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. Precision weight posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower Precision, contributing to the the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM) which demonstrates the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models, and allocate the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights is an estimator of model’s predictability on the rigid body and fluid motion dataset. We also apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the U.K. precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models in providing more proficient forecasting.

Recent advances in foundation models have led to a promising trend of developing large recommendation models to leverage vast amounts of available data. Still, mainstream models remain embarrassingly small in size and naive enlarging does not lead to sufficient performance gain, suggesting a deficiency in the model scalability. In this paper, we identify the embedding collapse phenomenon as the inhibition of scalability, wherein the embedding matrix tends to occupy a low-dimensional subspace. Through empirical and theoretical analysis, we demonstrate a two-sided effect of feature interaction specific to recommendation models. On the one hand, interacting with collapsed embeddings restricts embedding learning and exacerbates the collapse issue. On the other hand, interaction is crucial in mitigating the fitting of spurious features as a scalability guarantee. Based on our analysis, we propose a simple yet effective multi-embedding design incorporating embedding-set-specific interaction modules to learn embedding sets with large diversity and thus reduce collapse. Extensive experiments demonstrate that this proposed design provides consistent scalability and effective collapse mitigation for various recommendation models. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Multi-Embedding.

Diffusion models have significantly advanced the field of generative modeling. However, training a diffusion model is computationally expensive, creating a pressing need to adapt off-the-shelf diffusion models for downstream generation tasks. Current fine-tuning methods focus on parameter-efficient transfer learning but overlook the fundamental transfer characteristics of diffusion models. In this paper, we investigate the transferability of diffusion models and observe a monotonous chain of forgetting trend of transferability along the reverse process. Based on this observation and novel theoretical insights, we present Diff-Tuning, a frustratingly simple transfer approach that leverages the chain of forgetting tendency. Diff-Tuning encourages the fine-tuned model to retain the pre-trained knowledge at the end of the denoising chain close to the generated data while discarding the other noise side. We conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate Diff-Tuning, including the transfer of pre-trained Diffusion Transformer models to eight downstream generations and the adaptation of Stable Diffusion to five control conditions with ControlNet. Diff-Tuning achieves a 24.6% improvement over standard fine-tuning and enhances the convergence speed of ControlNet by 24%. Notably, parameter-efficient transfer learning techniques for diffusion models can also benefit from Diff-Tuning. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Diffusion-Tuning.

Wanrong He, Haoyu Dong, Yihuai Gao, Zhichao Fan, Xingzhuo Guo, Zhitao Hou, Xiao Lv, Ran Jia, Shi Han, Dongmei Zhang. Proceedings of the 61st Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2023.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) from observational studies is rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in many fields. Due to the selection bias behind the inaccessibility of counterfactual data, the problem differs fundamentally from supervised learning in a challenging way. However, existing works on modeling selection bias and corresponding algorithms do not naturally generalize to non-binary treatment spaces. To address this limitation, we propose to use mutual information to describe selection bias in estimating HTE and derive a novel error bound using the mutual information between the covariates and the treatments, which is the first error bound to cover general treatment schemes including multinoulli or continuous spaces. We then bring forth theoretically justified algorithms, the Mutual Information Treatment Network (MitNet), using adversarial optimization to reduce selection bias and obtain more accurate HTE estimations. Our algorithm reaches remarkable performance in both simulation study and empirical evaluation.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, where the model needs to handle distribution shifts from training, is a major challenge of machine learning. Contrastive language-image pre-training (CLIP) models have shown impressive zero-shot ability, but the further adaptation of CLIP on downstream tasks undesirably degrades OOD performances. This paper aims at generalizing CLIP to out-of-distribution test data on downstream tasks. We propose CLIPood, a fine-tuning method that can adapt CLIP models to OOD situations where both domain shifts and open classes may occur on the unseen test data. To exploit the semantic relations between classes from the text modality, CLIPood introduces a new training objective, margin metric softmax (MMS), with class adaptive margins for fine-tuning. To incorporate both pre-trained zero-shot model and fine-tuned task-adaptive model, CLIPood leverages a new optimization strategy, Beta moving average (BMA), to maintain a temporal ensemble weighted by Beta distribution. Experiments on diverse datasets with different OOD scenarios show that CLIPood consistently outperforms existing generalization techniques.

Recent years have witnessed significant advances brought by microfluidic biochips in automating biochemical processing. Accurate preparation of fluid samples with microfluidic mixers is a fundamental step in various biomedical applications, where concentration prediction and generation are critical. Finite element analysis (FEA) is the most commonly used simulation method for accurate concentration prediction of a given biochip design, such as COMSOL. However, the FEA simulation process is time-consuming with poor scalability for large biochip sizes. This paper proposes a new concentration prediction method based on the graph neural networks (GNN), which efficiently and accurately predicts the generated concentration by random microfluidic mixers of different sizes. Experimental results show that compared with the state-of-the-art method, the proposed GNN-based simulation method obtains a reduction of 88% in terms of errors of predicted concentration, which validates the effectiveness of the proposed GNN model.