Calibrating blackbox machine learning models to achieve risk control is crucial to ensure reliable decision-making. A rich line of literature has been studying how to calibrate a model so that its predictions satisfy explicit finite-sample statistical guarantees under a _fixed_, _static_, and unknown data-generating distribution. However, prediction-supported decisions may influence the outcome they aim to predict, a phenomenon named _performativity_ of predictions, which is commonly seen in social science and economics. In this paper, we introduce _Performative Risk Control_, a framework to calibrate models to achieve risk control under performativity with provable theoretical guarantees. Specifically, we provide an iteratively refined calibration process, where we ensure the predictions are improved and risk-controlled throughout the process. We also study different types of risk measures and choices of tail bounds. Lastly, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework by numerical experiments on the task of predicting credit default risk. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first one to study statistically rigorous risk control under performativity, which will serve as an important safeguard against a wide range of strategic manipulation in decision-making processes.

One limitation of existing Transformer-based models is that they cannot handle very long sequences as input since their self-attention operations exhibit quadratic time and space complexity. This problem becomes especially acute when Transformers are deployed on hardware platforms equipped only with CPUs. To address this issue, we propose a novel method for accelerating self-attention at inference time that works with pretrained Transformer models out-of-the-box without requiring retraining. We experiment using our method to accelerate various long-sequence Transformers, including a leading LLaMA 2-based LLM, on various benchmarks and demonstrate a greater speedup of $2.73\times$ - $7.63\times$ while retaining $98.6$% - $99.6$% of the accuracy of the original pretrained models. The code is available on our project website at https://yuzhenmao.github.io/IceFormer/.

Non-IID transfer learning on graphs is crucial in many high-stakes domains. The majority of existing works assume stationary distribution for both source and target domains. However, real-world graphs are intrinsically dynamic, presenting challenges in terms of domain evolution and dynamic discrepancy between source and target domains. To bridge the gap, we shift the problem to the dynamic setting and pose the question: given the *label-rich* source graphs and the *label-scarce* target graphs both observed in previous $T$ timestamps, how can we effectively characterize the evolving domain discrepancy and optimize the generalization performance of the target domain at the incoming $T+1$ timestamp? To answer it, we propose a generalization bound for *dynamic non-IID transfer learning on graphs*, which implies the generalization performance is dominated by domain evolution and domain discrepancy between source and target graphs. Inspired by the theoretical results, we introduce a novel generic framework named EvoluNet. It leverages a transformer-based temporal encoding module to model temporal information of the evolving domains and then uses a dynamic domain unification module to efficiently learn domain-invariant representations across the source and target domains. Finally, EvoluNet outperforms the state-of-the-art models by up to 12.1%, demonstrating its effectiveness in transferring knowledge from dynamic source graphs to dynamic target graphs.

MOTIVATION: A patient's disease phenotype can be driven and determined by specific groups of cells whose marker genes are either unknown or can only be detected at late-stage using conventional bulk assays such as RNA-Seq technology. Recent advances in single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) enable gene expression profiling in cell-level resolution, and therefore have the potential to identify those cells driving the disease phenotype even while the number of these cells is small. However, most existing methods rely heavily on accurate cell type detection, and the number of available annotated samples is usually too small for training deep learning predictive models. RESULTS: Here, we propose the method ScRAT for phenotype prediction using scRNA-seq data. To train ScRAT with a limited number of samples of different phenotypes, such as coronavirus disease (COVID) and non-COVID, ScRAT first applies a mixup module to increase the number of training samples. A multi-head attention mechanism is employed to learn the most informative cells for each phenotype without relying on a given cell type annotation. Using three public COVID datasets, we show that ScRAT outperforms other phenotype prediction methods. The performance edge of ScRAT over its competitors increases as the number of training samples decreases, indicating the efficacy of our sample mixup. Critical cell types detected based on high-attention cells also support novel findings in the original papers and the recent literature. This suggests that ScRAT overcomes the challenge of missing marker genes and limited sample number with great potential revealing novel molecular mechanisms and/or therapies. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The code of our proposed method ScRAT is published at https://github.com/yuzhenmao/ScRAT.

Given a resource-rich source graph and a resource-scarce target graph, how can we effectively transfer knowledge across graphs and ensure a good generalization performance? In many high-impact domains (e.g., brain networks and molecular graphs), collecting and annotating data is prohibitively expensive and time-consuming, which makes domain adaptation an attractive option to alleviate the label scarcity issue. In light of this, the state-of-the-art methods focus on deriving domain-invariant graph representation that minimizes the domain discrepancy. However, it has recently been shown that a small domain discrepancy loss may not always guarantee a good generalization performance, especially in the presence of disparate graph structures and label distribution shifts. In this paper, we present TRANSNET, a generic learning framework for augmenting knowledge transfer across graphs. In particular, we introduce a novel notion named trinity signal that can naturally formulate various graph signals at different granularity (e.g., node attributes, edges, and subgraphs). With that, we further propose a domain unification module together with a trinity-signal mixup scheme to jointly minimize the domain discrepancy and augment the knowledge transfer across graphs. Finally, comprehensive empirical results show that TRANSNET outperforms all existing approaches on seven benchmark datasets by a significant margin.