Marginal likelihood, also known as model evidence, is a fundamental quantity in Bayesian statistics. It is used for model selection using Bayes factors or for empirical Bayes tuning of prior hyper-parameters. Yet, the calculation of evidence has remained a longstanding open problem in Gaussian graphical models. Currently, the only feasible solutions that exist are for special cases such as the Wishart or G-Wishart, in moderate dimensions. We develop an approach based on a novel telescoping block decomposition of the precision matrix that allows the estimation of evidence by application of Chib's technique under a very broad class of priors under mild requirements. Specifically, the requirements are: (a) the priors on the diagonal terms on the precision matrix can be written as gamma or scale mixtures of gamma random variables and (b) those on the off-diagonal terms can be represented as normal or scale mixtures of normal. This includes structured priors such as the Wishart or G-Wishart, and more recently introduced element-wise priors, such as the Bayesian graphical lasso and the graphical horseshoe. Among these, the true marginal is known in an analytically closed form for Wishart, providing a useful validation of our approach. For the general setting of the other three, and several more priors satisfying conditions (a) and (b) above, the calculation of evidence has remained an open question that this article resolves under a unifying framework.

The horseshoe prior, defined as a half Cauchy scale mixture of normal, provides a state of the art approach to Bayesian sparse signal recovery. We provide a new representation of the horseshoe density as a scale mixture of the Laplace density, explicitly identifying the mixing measure. Using the celebrated Bernstein–Widder theorem and a result due to Bochner, our representation immediately establishes the complete monotonicity of the horseshoe density and strong concavity of the corresponding penalty. Consequently, the equivalence between local linear approximation and expectation–maximization algorithms for finding the posterior mode under the horseshoe penalized regression is established. Further, the resultant estimate is shown to be sparse.