The rapid spread of diverse information on online social platforms has prompted both academia and industry to realize the importance of predicting content popularity, which could benefit a wide range of applications, such as recommendation systems and strategic decision-making. Recent works mainly focused on extracting spatiotemporal patterns inherent in the information diffusion process within a given observation period so as to predict its popularity over a future period of time. However, these works often overlook the future popularity trend, as future popularity could either increase exponentially or stagnate, introducing uncertainties to the prediction performance. Additionally, how to transfer the preceding-term dynamics learned from the observed diffusion process into future-term trends remains an unexplored challenge. Against this background, we propose CasFT, which leverages observed information Cascades and dynamic cues extracted via neural ODEs as conditions to guide the generation of Future popularity-increasing Trends through a diffusion model. These generated trends are then combined with the spatiotemporal patterns in the observed information cascade to make the final popularity prediction. Extensive experiments conducted on three real-world datasets demonstrate that CasFT significantly improves the prediction accuracy compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

Synthetic human trajectory data becoming increasingly prominent in various applications, including urban planning, traffic control, and crowd monitoring. Recent neural generative models for human trajectory data mostly follow an unconditional generative paradigm that relies on a pure data-driven imitative learning scheme, without considering the rich context of human mobility (e.g., social events or weather conditions) which may significantly impact the underlying human mobility patterns. Against this background, we propose Marionette, a Manipulatable generative model for human trajectory data with fine-grained conditions. Specifically, Marionette integrates both global and partial mobility-related contexts and extracts both sequence-level and event-level conditions. Afterward, it designs fine-grained and cascading conditioning mechanisms for modeling the temporal and spatial dynamics based on diffusion-alike Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) and discrete diffusion models, respectively, offering fine-grained controllable generative modeling of human trajectory data with both global and partial mobility-related contexts. We conduct a thorough evaluation on two real-world human trajectory datasets against a sizeable collection of baselines. Results show that our Marionette consistently outperforms the best baselines by 13.96-54.13% on statistical and distributional similarity metrics and by 9.36-40.63% in task-based data utility evaluation. Ablation studies verify our key design choices. Case studies also demonstrate the manipulability of Marionette in generating data in previously unseen scenarios.

Human trajectory data, which plays a crucial role in various applications such as crowd management and epidemic prevention, is challenging to obtain due to practical constraints and privacy concerns. In this context, synthetic human trajectory data is generated to simulate as close as possible to real-world human trajectories, often under summary statistics and distributional similarities. However, these similarities oversimplify complex human mobility patterns (a.k.a. ''Datasaurus''), resulting in intrinsic biases in both generative model design and benchmarks of the generated trajectories. Against this background, we propose MIRAGE, a huMan-Imitative tRAjectory GenErative model designed as a neural Temporal Point Process integrating an Exploration and Preferential Return model. It imitates the human decision-making process in trajectory generation, rather than fitting any specific statistical distributions as traditional methods do, thus avoiding the Datasaurus issue. We also propose a comprehensive task-based evaluation protocol beyond Datasaurus to systematically benchmark trajectory generative models on four typical downstream tasks, integrating multiple techniques and evaluation metrics for each task, to assess the ultimate utility of the generated trajectories. We conduct a thorough evaluation of MIRAGE on three real-world user trajectory datasets against a sizeable collection of baselines. Results show that compared to the best baselines, MIRAGE-generated trajectory data not only achieves the best statistical and distributional similarities with 59.0-67.7% improvement, but also yields the best performance in the task-based evaluation with 10.9-33.4% improvement. A series of ablation studies also validate the key design choices of MIRAGE.

Information popularity prediction is important yet challenging in various domains, including viral marketing and news recommendations. The key to accurately predicting information popularity lies in subtly modeling the underlying temporal information diffusion process behind observed events of an information cascade, such as the retweets of a tweet. To this end, most existing methods either adopt recurrent networks to capture the temporal dynamics from the first to the last observed event or develop a statistical model based on self-exciting point processes to make predictions. However, information diffusion is intrinsically a complex continuous-time process with irregularly observed discrete events, which is oversimplified using recurrent networks as they fail to capture the irregular time intervals between events, or using self-exciting point processes as they lack flexibility to capture the complex diffusion process. Against this background, we propose ConCat, modeling theContinuous-time dynamics ofCascades for information popularity prediction. On the one hand, it leverages neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) to model irregular events of a cascade in continuous time based on the cascade graph and sequential event information. On the other hand, it considers cascade events as neural temporal point processes (TPPs) parameterized by a conditional intensity function which can also benefit the popularity prediction task. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate ConCat on three real-world datasets. Results show that ConCat achieves superior performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines, yielding 2.3%-33.2% improvement over the best-performing baselines across the three datasets.

Knowledge graph (KG) schema, which prescribes a high-level structure and semantics of a KG, is significantly helpful for KG completion and reasoning problems. Despite its usefulness, open-domain KGs do not practically have a unified and fixed schema. Existing approaches usually extract schema information using entity types from a KG where each entity e can be associated with a set of types {Te, by either heuristically taking one type for each entity or exhaustively combining the types of all entities in a fact (to get entity-typed tuples, (h_type, r, t_type) for example). However, these two approaches either overlook the role of multiple types of a single entity across different facts or introduce non-negligible noise as not all the type combinations actually support the fact, thus failing to capture the sophisticated schema information. Against this background, we study the problem of modeling hyper-relational schema, which is formulated as mixed hyper-relational tuples ({Th}, r, {Tt}, k, {Tv1},...) with two-fold hyper-relations: each type set T may contain multiple types and each schema tuple may contain multiple key-type set pairs (k, Tv). To address this problem, we propose HELIOS, a hyper-relational schema model designed to subtly learn from such hyper-relational schema tuples by capturing not only the correlation between multiple types of a single entity, but also the correlation between types of different entities and relations in a schema tuple. We evaluate HELIOS on three real-world KG datasets in different schema prediction tasks. Results show that HELIOS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art hyper-relational link prediction techniques by 20.0-29.7%, and is also much more robust than baselines in predicting types and relations across different positions in a hyper-relational schema tuple.

As a fundamental problem in human mobility modeling, location prediction forecasts a user’s next location based on historical user mobility trajectories. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been widely used to capture sequential patterns of user visited locations for solving location prediction problems. Due to the sparse nature of real-world user mobility trajectories, existing techniques strive to improve RNNs by incorporating spatiotemporal contexts into the recurrent hidden state passing process of RNNs using context-parameterized transition matrices or gates. However, such a scheme mismatches universal spatiotemporal mobility laws and thus cannot fully benefit from rich spatiotemporal contexts encoded in user mobility trajectories. Against this background, we propose Flashback++, a general RNN architecture designed for modeling sparse user mobility trajectories. It not only leverages rich spatiotemporal contexts to search past hidden states with high predictive power but also learns to optimally combine them via a hidden state re-weighting mechanism, which significantly improves the robustness of the models against different settings and datasets. Our extensive evaluation compares Flashback++ against a sizable collection of state-of-the-art techniques on two real-world location-based social networks datasets and one on-campus mobility dataset. Results show that Flashback++ not only consistently and significantly outperforms all baseline techniques by 20.56% to 44.36% but also achieves better robustness of location prediction performance against different model settings (different RNN architectures and numbers of hidden states to flash back), different levels of trajectory sparsity, and different train-testing splitting ratios than baselines, yielding an improvement of 31.05% to 94.60%.