The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in 2019, designated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) as a serious antimicrobial resistance threat. The risk of acquiring MRSA and suffering life-threatening consequences due to it remains especially high for hospitalized patients due to a unique combination of factors, including: co-morbid conditions, immuno suppression, antibiotic use, and risk of contact with contaminated hospital workers and equipment. In this paper, we present a novel generative probabilistic model, GenHAI, for modeling sequences of MRSA test results outcomes for patients during a single hospitalization. This model can be used to answer many important questions from the perspectives of hospital administrators for mitigating the risk of MRSA infections. Our model is based on the probabilistic programming paradigm, and can be used to approximately answer a variety of predictive, causal, and counterfactual questions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model by comparing it against discriminative and generative machine learning models using two real-world datasets.

We study exascale parallel algorithms for the selection of intervention or monitoring strategies in massive realistic socio-technical networks through scalable Influence Maximization (InfMax) algorithms.We employ novel techniques to enable efficient scaling on up to 8k nodes of OLCF Frontier, with 65k AMD GPUs and 458k AMD CPU cores.Current state-of-the-art InfMax tools are limited to networks with only a few million actors (vertices) and a few hundred million interactions (edges).By overcoming these limitations, ICS '25, June 08-11, 2025, Salt Lake City, UT, USA Minutoli et al.we show that our approach is capable of processing a realistic social contact network of the United States with 285 million nodes and about 8 billion edges.This two ordersof-magnitude improvement over the previous state-of-theart is obtained by leveraging algorithmic advancements for the InfMax problem and designing several problem-specific approaches to overlap communication with computation, improve GPU efficiency, and lower the application's memory requirements.We evaluate strong scaling for computing 10k most influential seeds using up to 8k nodes of an exascale system, and weak scaling from 128 to 8k system nodes for seed sets ranging from 625 to 40k seeds.We achieve the fastest-known runtime of 25 minutes while performing 48 million diffusion simulations totaling 2.31 petabytes to identify 40k influential seeds using 8k nodes, and take 5.75 minutes to identify 10k seeds while using 4k nodes.

Recent advances in generative models for language have enabled the creation of convincing synthetic text or deepfake text. Prior work has demonstrated the potential for misuse of deepfake text to mislead content consumers. Therefore, deepfake text detection, the task of discriminating between human and machine-generated text, is becoming increasingly critical. Several defenses have been proposed for deepfake text detection. However, we lack a thorough understanding of their real-world applicability. In this paper, we collect deepfake text from 4 online services powered by Transformer-based tools to evaluate the generalization ability of the defenses on content in the wild. We develop several low-cost adversarial attacks, and investigate the robustness of existing defenses against an adaptive attacker. We find that many defenses show significant degradation in performance under our evaluation scenarios compared to their original claimed performance. Our evaluation shows that tapping into the semantic information in the text content is a promising approach for improving the robustness and generalization performance of deepfake text detection schemes.

We study allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to individuals based on the structural properties of their underlying social contact network. Using a realistic representation of a social contact network for the Commonwealth of Virginia, we study how a limited number of vaccine doses can be strategically distributed to individuals to reduce the overall burden of the pandemic. We show that allocation of vaccines based on individuals' degree (number of social contacts) and total social proximity time is significantly more effective than the usually used age-based allocation strategy in reducing the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. The overall strategy is robust even: (i) if the social contacts are not estimated correctly; (ii) if the vaccine efficacy is lower than expected or only a single dose is given; (iii) if there is a delay in vaccine production and deployment; and (iv) whether or not non-pharmaceutical interventions continue as vaccines are deployed. For reasons of implementability, we have used degree, which is a simple structural measure and can be easily estimated using several methods, including the digital technology available today. These results are significant, especially for resource-poor countries, where vaccines are less available, have lower efficacy, and are more slowly distributed.

Sandipan Sikdar, Parantapa Bhattacharya, Kieran Heese. Proceedings of the 59th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics and the 11th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2021.

We study the role of vaccine acceptance in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the US using AI-driven agent-based models. Our study uses a 288 million node social contact network spanning all 50 US states plus Washington DC, comprised of 3300 counties, with 12.59 billion daily interactions. The highly-resolved agent-based models use realistic information about disease progression, vaccine uptake, production schedules, acceptance trends, prevalence, and social distancing guidelines. Developing a national model at this resolution that is driven by realistic data requires a complex scalable workflow, model calibration, simulation, and analytics components. Our workflow optimizes the total execution time and helps in improving overall human productivity.This work develops a pipeline that can execute US-scale models and associated workflows that typically present significant big data challenges. Our results show that, when compared to faster and accelerating vaccinations, slower vaccination rates due to vaccine hesitancy cause averted infections to drop from 6.7M to 4.5M, and averted total deaths to drop from 39.4K to 28.2K nationwide. This occurs despite the fact that the final vaccine coverage is the same in both scenarios. Improving vaccine acceptance by 10% in all states increases averted infections from 4.5M to 4.7M (a 4.4% improvement) and total deaths from 28.2K to 29.9K (a 6% increase) nationwide. The analysis also reveals interesting spatio-temporal differences in COVID-19 dynamics as a result of vaccine acceptance. To our knowledge, this is the first national-scale analysis of the effect of vaccine acceptance on the spread of COVID-19, using detailed and realistic agent-based models.

The COVID-19 global outbreak represents the most significant epidemic event since the 1918 influenza pandemic. Simulations have played a crucial role in supporting COVID-19 planning and response efforts. Developing scalable workflows to provide policymakers quick responses to important questions pertaining to logistics, resource allocation, epidemic forecasts and intervention analysis remains a challenging computational problem. In this work, we present scalable high performance computing-enabled workflows for COVID-19 pandemic planning and response. The scalability of our methodology allows us to run fine-grained simulations daily, and to generate county-level forecasts and other counterfactual analysis for each of the 50 states (and DC), 3140 counties across the USA. Our workflows use a hybrid cloud/cluster system utilizing a combination of local and remote cluster computing facilities, and using over 20,000 CPU cores running for 6-9 hours every day to meet this objective. Our state (Virginia), state hospital network, our university, the DOD and the CDC use our models to guide their COVID-19 planning and response efforts. We began executing these pipelines March 25, 2020, and have delivered and briefed weekly updates to these stakeholders for over 30 weeks without interruption.

AI-manipulated videos, commonly known as deepfakes, are an emerging problem. Recently, researchers in academia and industry have contributed several (self-created) benchmark deepfake datasets, and deepfake detection algorithms. However, little effort has gone towards understanding deepfake videos in the wild, leading to a limited understanding of the real-world applicability of research contributions in this space. Even if detection schemes are shown to perform well on existing datasets, it is unclear how well the methods generalize to real-world deepfakes. To bridge this gap in knowledge, we make the following contributions: First, we collect and present the largest dataset of deepfake videos in the wild, containing 1,869 videos from YouTube and Bilibili, and extract over 4.8M frames of content. Second, we present a comprehensive analysis of the growth patterns, popularity, creators, manipulation strategies, and production methods of deepfake content in the real-world. Third, we systematically evaluate existing defenses using our new dataset, and observe that they are not ready for deployment in the real-world. Fourth, we explore the potential for transfer learning schemes and competition-winning techniques to improve defenses.

The COVID-19 pandemic brought to the forefront an unprecedented need for experts, as well as citizens, to visualize spatio-temporal disease surveillance data. Web application dashboards were quickly developed to fill t his g ap, b ut a ll of these dashboards supported a particular niche view of the pandemic (ie, current status or specific r egions). I n t his paper, we describe our work developing our COVID-19 Surveillance Dashboard, which offers a unique view of the pandemic while also allowing users to focus on the details that interest them. From the beginning, our goal was to provide a simple visual tool for comparing, organizing, and tracking near-real-time surveillance data as the pandemic progresses. In developing this dashboard, we also identified 6 key metrics which we propose as a standard for the design and evaluation of real-time epidemic science dashboards. Our dashboard was one of the first released to the public, and continues to be actively visited. Our own group uses it to support federal, state and local public health authorities, and it is used by individuals worldwide to track the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, build their own dashboards, and support their organizations as they plan their responses to the pandemic.

Advances in deep neural networks (DNNs) have shown tremendous promise in the medical domain. However, the deep learning tools that are helping the domain, can also be used against it. Given the prevalence of fraud in the healthcare domain, it is important to consider the adversarial use of DNNs in manipulating sensitive data that is crucial to patient healthcare. In this work, we present the design and implementation of a DNN-based image translation attack on biomedical imagery. More specifically, we propose Jekyll, a neural style transfer framework that takes as input a biomedical image of a patient and translates it to a new image that indicates an attacker-chosen disease condition. The potential for fraudulent claims based on such generated ‘fake’ medical images is significant, and we demonstrate successful attacks on both X-rays and retinal fundus image modalities. We show that these attacks manage to mislead both medical professionals and algorithmic detection schemes. Lastly, we also investigate defensive measures based on machine learning to detect images generated by Jekyll.

Social networks, forums, and social media have emerged as global platforms for forming and shaping opinions on a broad spectrum of topics like politics, sports, and entertainment. Users (also calledactors) often update their evolving opinions, influenced through discussions with other users. Theoretical models and their analysis on understanding opinion dynamics in social networks abound in the literature. However, these models are often based on concepts from statistical physics. Their goal is to establish specific phenomena like steady state consensus or bifurcation. Analysis of transient effects is largely avoided. Moreover, many of these studies assume that actors’ opinions are observed globally and synchronously, which is rarely realistic. In this article, we initiate an investigation into a family of novel data-driven influence models that accurately learn and fit realistic observations. We estimate and do not presume edge strengths from observed opinions at nodes. Our influence models are linear but not necessarily positive or row stochastic in nature. As a consequence, unlike the previous studies, they do not depend on system stability or convergence during the observation period. Furthermore, our models take into account a wide variety of data collection scenarios. In particular, they are robust to missing observations for several timesteps after an actor has changed its opinion. In addition, we consider scenarios where opinion observations may be available only for aggregated clusters of nodes—a practical restriction often imposed to ensure privacy. Finally, to provide a conceptually interpretable design of edge influence, we offer a relatively frugal variant of our influence model, where the strength of influence between two connecting nodes depends on the node attributes (demography, personality, expertise, etc.). Such an approach reduces the number of model parameters, reduces overfitting, and offers a tractable and explicable sketch of edge influences in the context of opinion dynamics. With six real-life datasets crawled from Twitter and Reddit, as well as three more datasets collected from in-house experiments (with 102 volunteers), our proposed system gives a significant accuracy boost over four state-of-the-art baselines.

Extracting news on specific topics from the Twitter microblogging site poses formidable challenges, which include handling millions of tweets posted daily, judging topicality and importance of tweets, and ensuring trustworthiness of results in the face of spam. To date, all scalable approaches have relied on crowd wisdom, i.e., keyword-matching on the global tweet stream to gather relevant tweets, and crowd- endorsements to judge the importance of tweets. We propose a fundamentally different methodology -- for a given topic, we identify trustworthy experts on the topic, and extract news-stories that are most popular among the experts. Comparing the crowd-based and expert-based methodologies, we demonstrate that the news-stories obtained by our methodology (i) have higher relevance for a wide variety of topics, (ii) achieve very high coverage of important news-stories posted globally in Twitter, and (iii) are far more trustworthy. Using our methodology, we implemented and publicly deployed a topical news system for Twitter, which can extract news-stories on thousands of topics.

Analysis of content streams gathered from social networking sites such as Twitter has several applications ranging from content search and recommendation, news detection to business analytics. However, processing large amounts of data generated on these sites in real-time poses a difficult challenge. To cope with the data deluge, analytics companies and researchers are increasingly resorting to sampling. In this article, we investigate the crucial question of how to sample content streams generated by users in online social networks . The traditional method is to randomly sample all the data. For example, most studies using Twitter data today rely on the 1% and 10% randomly sampled streams of tweets that are provided by Twitter. In this paper, we analyze a different sampling methodology, one where content is gathered only from a relatively small sample (<1%) of the user population, namely, the expert users . Over the duration of a month, we gathered tweets from over 500,000 Twitter users who are identified as experts on a diverse set of topics, and compared the resulting expert sampled tweets with the 1% randomly sampled tweets provided publicly by Twitter. We compared the sampled datasets along several dimensions, including the popularity, topical diversity, trustworthiness, and timeliness of the information contained within them, and on the sentiment/opinion expressed on specific topics. Our analysis reveals several important differences in data obtained through the different sampling methodologies, which have serious implications for applications such as topical search, trustworthy content recommendations, breaking news detection, and opinion mining.

Many social networks are characterized by actors (nodes) holding quantitative opinions about movies, songs, sports, people, colleges, politicians, and so on. These opinions are influenced by network neighbors. Many models have been proposed for such opinion dynamics, but they have some limitations. Most consider the strength of edge influence as fixed. Some model a discrete decision or action on part of each actor, and an edge as causing an ``infection'' (that is often permanent or self-resolving). Others model edge influence as a stochastic matrix to reuse the mathematics of eigensystems. Actors' opinions are usually observed globally and synchronously. Analysis usually skirts transient effects and focuses on steady-state behavior. There is very little direct experimental validation of estimated influence models. Here we initiate an investigation into new models that seek to remove these limitations. Our main goal is to estimate, not assume, edge influence strengths from an observed series of opinion values at nodes. We adopt a linear (but not stochastic) influence model. We make no assumptions about system stability or convergence. Further, actors' opinions may be observed in an asynchronous and incomplete fashion, after missing several time steps when an actor changed its opinion based on neighbors' influence. We present novel algorithms to estimate edge influence strengths while tackling these aggressively realistic assumptions. Experiments with Reddit, Twitter, and three social games we conducted on volunteers establish the promise of our algorithms. Our opinion estimation errors are dramatically smaller than strong baselines like the DeGroot, flocking, voter, and biased voter models. Our experiments also lend qualitative insights into asynchronous opinion updates and aggregation.

We present a semantic methodology to identify topical groups in Twitter on a large number of topics, each consisting of users who are experts on or interested in a specific topic. Early studies investigating the nature of Twitter suggest that it is a social media platform consisting of a relatively small section of elite users, producing information on a few popular topics such as media, politics, and music, and the general population consuming it. We show that this characterization ignores a rich set of highly specialized topics, ranging from geology, neurology, to astrophysics and karate - each being discussed by their own topical groups. We present a detailed characterization of these topical groups based on their network structures and tweeting behaviors. Analyzing these groups on the backdrop of the common identity and bond theory in social sciences shows that these groups exhibit characteristics of topical-identity based groups, rather than social-bond based ones.

We propose a novel mechanism to infer topics of interest of individual users in the Twitter social network. We observe that in Twitter, a user generally follows experts on various topics of her interest in order to acquire information on those topics. We use a methodology based on social annotations (proposed earlier by us) to first deduce the topical expertise of popular Twitter users, and then transitively infer the interests of the users who follow them. This methodology is a sharp departure from the traditional techniques of inferring interests of a user from the tweets that she posts or receives. We show that the topics of interest inferred by the proposed methodology are far superior than the topics extracted by state-of-the-art techniques such as using topic models (Labeled LDA) on tweets. Based upon the proposed methodology, we build a system Who Likes What, which can infer the interests of millions of Twitter users. To our knowledge, this is the first system that can infer interests for Twitter users at such scale. Hence, this system would be particularly beneficial in developing personalized recommender services over the Twitter platform.

Several applications today rely upon content streams crowd-sourced from online social networks. Since real-time processing of large amounts of data generated on these sites is difficult, analytics companies and researchers are increasingly resorting to sampling. In this paper, we investigate the crucial question of how to sample the data generated by users in social networks. The traditional method is to randomly sample all the data. We analyze a different sampling methodology, where content is gathered only from a relatively small subset (< 1%) of the user population namely, the expert users. Over the duration of a month, we gathered tweets from over 500,000 Twitter users who are identified as experts on a diverse set of topics, and compared the resulting expert-sampled tweets with the 1% randomly sampled tweets provided publicly by Twitter. We compared the sampled datasets along several dimensions, including the diversity, timeliness, and trustworthiness of the information contained within them, and find important differences between the datasets. Our observations have major implications for applications such as topical search, trustworthy content recommendations, and breaking news detection.