Spatial prediction tasks are key to weather forecasting, studying air pollution impacts, and other scientific endeavors. Determining how much to trust predictions made by statistical or physical methods is essential for the credibility of scientific conclusions. Unfortunately, classical approaches for validation fail to handle mismatch between locations available for validation and (test) locations where we want to make predictions. This mismatch is often not an instance of covariate shift (as commonly formalized) because the validation and test locations are fixed (e.g., on a grid or at select points) rather than i.i.d. from two distributions. In the present work, we formalize a check on validation methods: that they become arbitrarily accurate as validation data becomes arbitrarily dense. We show that classical and covariate-shift methods can fail this check. We propose a method that builds from existing ideas in the covariate-shift literature, but adapts them to the validation data at hand. We prove that our proposal passes our check. And we demonstrate its advantages empirically on simulated and real data.

Practitioners often aim to infer an unobserved population trajectory using sample snapshots at multiple time points. E.g. given single-cell sequencing data, scientists would like to learn how gene expression changes over a cell’s life cycle. But sequencing any cell destroys that cell. So we can access data for any particular cell only at a single time point, but we have data across many cells. The deep learning community has recently explored using Schr{ö}dinger bridges (SBs) and their extensions in similar settings. However, existing methods either (1) interpolate between just two time points or (2) require a single fixed reference dynamic (often set to Brownian motion within SB). But learning piecewise from adjacent time points can fail to capture long-term dependencies. And practitioners are typically able to specify a model class for the reference dynamic but not the exact values of the parameters within it. So we propose a new method that (1) learns the unobserved trajectories from sample snapshots across multiple time points and (2) requires specification only of a class of reference dynamics, not a single fixed one. We demonstrate the advantages of our method on simulated and real data.

The Bradley-Terry (BT) model is a common and successful practice in reward modeling for Large Language Model (LLM) alignment. However, it remains unclear *why* this model --- originally developed for multi-player stochastic game matching --- can be adopted to convert pairwise response comparisons to reward values and make predictions. Especially given the fact that only a limited number of prompt-response pairs are sparsely compared with others. In this paper, we first establish the convergence rate of BT reward models based on deep neural networks using embeddings, providing a theoretical foundation for their use. Despite theoretically sound, we argue that the BT model is not a necessary choice from the perspective of downstream optimization, this is because a reward model only needs to preserve the correct ranking predictions through a monotonic transformation of the true reward. We highlight the critical concept of *order consistency* in reward modeling and demonstrate that the BT model possesses this property. Moreover, we propose a simple and straightforward upper-bound algorithm, compatible with off-the-shelf binary classifiers, as an alternative order-consistent reward modeling objective. To offer practical insights, we empirically evaluate the performance of these different reward modeling approaches across more than 12,000 experimental setups, using $6$ base LLMs, $2$ datasets, and diverse annotation designs that vary in quantity, quality, and pairing choices in preference annotations.

Building neural reward models from human preferences is a pivotal component in reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) and large language model alignment research. Given the scarcity and high cost of human annotation, how to select the most informative pairs to annotate is an essential yet challenging open problem. In this work, we highlight the insight that an ideal comparison dataset for reward modeling should balance exploration of the representation space and make informative comparisons between pairs with moderate reward differences. Technically, challenges arise in quantifying the two objectives and efficiently prioritizing the comparisons to be annotated. To address this, we propose the Fisher information-based selection strategies, adapt theories from the classical experimental design literature, and apply them to the final linear layer of the deep neural network-based reward modeling tasks. Empirically, our method demonstrates remarkable performance, high computational efficiency, and stability compared to other selection methods from deep learning and classical statistical literature across multiple open-source LLMs and datasets. Further ablation studies reveal that incorporating cross-prompt comparisons in active reward modeling significantly enhances labeling efficiency, shedding light on the potential for improved annotation strategies in RLHF. Code and embeddings to reproduce all results of this paper are available at https://github.com/YunyiShen/ARM-FI/.