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Javier Porras-Valenzuela

dblp:368/8138 · DBLP profile ↗
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1ranked-venue papers
0as first author
1since 2021 · last 2024
—ORCID · none

Domains — the database's venue-derived domains; a paper can count in several

Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 1 · 1 since 2021

Expertise — from the expertise taxonomy: the topics of the expert's papers under the CCF categories. A weight counts papers with recency: 1 for a paper about the topic, 0.3 when the topic is its context, halved every five years.

Artificial intelligence
1 paper
Optimization for machine learning · 62% Time series and sequential data · 38%

Topics — the 3 heaviest of 3, each with the papers that count most for it

TopicWeightPapersLastEvidence papers
Machine learning › Optimization for machine learning › constrained optimization
constrained learning
0.812024
Loss Shaping Constraints for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting · ICML 2024
Machine learning › Time series and sequential data › time series analysis › time series forecasting
long-term time series forecasting
0.212024
Loss Shaping Constraints for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting · ICML 2024
Machine learning › Time series and sequential data › time series analysis
time series forecasting
0.212024
Loss Shaping Constraints for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting · ICML 2024

Methods — techniques the papers use, named apart from their topics

primal-dual algorithm · 0.8lagrangian duality · 0.8constrained optimization · 0.8
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2024 Loss Shaping Constraints for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
abstract
Several applications in time series forecasting require predicting multiple steps ahead. Despite the vast amount of literature in the topic, both classical and recent deep learning based approaches have mostly focused on minimising performance averaged over the predicted window. We observe that this can lead to disparate distributions of errors across forecasting steps, especially for recent transformer architectures trained on popular forecasting benchmarks. That is, optimising performance on average can lead to undesirably large errors at specific time-steps. In this work, we present a Constrained Learning approach for long-term time series forecasting that aims to find the best model in terms of average performance that respects a user-defined upper bound on the loss at each time-step. We call our approach loss shaping constraints because it imposes constraints on the loss at each time step, and leverage recent duality results to show that despite its non-convexity, the resulting problem has a bounded duality gap. We propose a practical primal-dual algorithm to tackle it, and demonstrate that the proposed approach exhibits competitive average performance in time series forecasting benchmarks, while shaping the distribution of errors across the predicted window.
Ignacio Hounie, Javier Porras-Valenzuela, Alejandro Ribeiro
ICML2