Traditional disaster analysis and modelling tools for assessing the severity of a disaster are predictive in nature. Based on the past observational data, these tools prescribe how the current input state (e.g., environmental conditions, situation reports) results in a severity assessment. However, these systems are not meant to be interventional in the causal sense, where the user can modify the current input state to simulate counterfactual ''what-if'' scenarios. In this work, we provide an alternative interventional tool that complements traditional disaster modelling tools by leveraging real-time data sources like satellite imagery, news, and social media. Our tool also helps understand the causal attribution of different factors on the estimated severity, over any given region of interest. In addition, we provide actionable recourses that would enable easier mitigation planning. Our source code is publicly available.

Dawei Li, Bohan Jiang, Liangjie Huang, Alimohammad Beigi, Chengshuai Zhao, Zhen Tan, Amrita Bhattacharjee, Yuxuan Jiang, Canyu Chen, Tianhao Wu, Kai Shu, Lu Cheng, Huan Liu. Proceedings of the 2025 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing. 2025.

Model attribution for LLM-generated disinformation poses a significant challenge in understanding its origins and mitigating its spread. This task is especially challenging because modern large language models (LLMs) produce disinformation with human-like quality. Additionally, the diversity in prompting methods used to generate disinformation complicates accurate source attribution. These methods introduce domain-specific features that can mask the fundamental characteristics of the models. In this paper, we introduce the concept of model attribution as a domain generalization problem, where each prompting method represents a unique domain. We argue that an effective attribution model must be invariant to these domain-specific features. It should also be proficient in identifying the originating models across all scenarios, reflecting real-world detection challenges. To address this, we introduce a novel approach based on Supervised Contrastive Learning. This method is designed to enhance the model's robustness to variations in prompts and focuses on distinguishing between different source LLMs. We evaluate our model through rigorous experiments involving three common prompting methods: “open-ended”, “rewriting”, and “paraphrasing”, and three advanced LLMs: “llama 2”, “chatgpt”, and “vicuna”. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in model attribution tasks, achieving state-of-the-art performance across diverse and unseen datasets.

Zhen Tan, Dawei Li, Song Wang, Alimohammad Beigi, Bohan Jiang, Amrita Bhattacharjee, Mansooreh Karami, Jundong Li, Lu Cheng, Huan Liu. Proceedings of the 2024 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing. 2024.