Models of hybrid dynamical systems are widely used to answer questions about the causes and effects of dynamic events in time. Unfortunately, existing causal reasoning formalisms lack support for queries involving the dynamically triggered, discontinuous interventions that characterize hybrid dynamical systems. This mismatch can lead to ad-hoc and error-prone causal analysis workflows in practice. To bridge the gap between the needs of hybrid systems users and current causal inference capabilities, we develop a rigorous counterfactual semantics by formalizing interventions as transformations to the constraints of hybrid systems. Unlike interventions in a typical structural causal model, however, interventions in hybrid systems can easily render the model ill-posed. Thus, we identify mild conditions under which our interventions maintain solution existence, uniqueness, and measurability by making explicit connections to established hybrid systems theory. To illustrate the utility of our framework, we formalize a number of canonical causal estimands and explore a case study on the probabilities of causation with applications to fishery management. Our work simultaneously expands the modeling possibilities available to causal inference practitioners and begins to unlock decades of causality research for users of hybrid systems.

Many practical problems involve estimating low dimensional statistical quantities with high-dimensional models and datasets. Several approaches address these estimation tasks based on the theory of influence functions, such as debiased/double ML or targeted minimum loss estimation. We introduce \textit{Monte Carlo Efficient Influence Functions} (MC-EIF), a fully automated technique for approximating efficient influence functions that integrates seamlessly with existing differentiable probabilistic programming systems. MC-EIF automates efficient statistical estimation for a broad class of models and functionals that previously required rigorous custom analysis. We prove that MC-EIF is consistent, and that estimators using MC-EIF achieve optimal $\sqrt{N}$ convergence rates. We show empirically that estimators using MC-EIF are at parity with estimators using analytic EIFs. Finally, we present a novel capstone example using MC-EIF for optimal portfolio selection.