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John C. Yannotty

dblp:375/0708 · DBLP profile ↗
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1ranked-venue papers
1as first author
1since 2021 · last 2025
—ORCID · none

Domains — the database's venue-derived domains; a paper can count in several

Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 1 · 1 first-author · 1 since 2021

Expertise — from the expertise taxonomy: the topics of the expert's papers under the CCF categories. A weight counts papers with recency: 1 for a paper about the topic, 0.3 when the topic is its context, halved every five years.

Artificial intelligence
1 paper
Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning · 100%
Interdisciplinary, comprehensive, and emerging computing
1 paper
Environmental and earth informatics · 100%

Topics — the 4 heaviest of 4, each with the papers that count most for it

TopicWeightPapersLastEvidence papers
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › statistical inference › regression
bayesian additive regression trees
0.912025
Combining Climate Models using Bayesian Regression Trees and Random Paths · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2025
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › statistical inference › regression › probabilistic regression
bayesian regression
0.912025
Combining Climate Models using Bayesian Regression Trees and Random Paths · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2025
Environmental and earth informatics
climate modeling
0.912025
Combining Climate Models using Bayesian Regression Trees and Random Paths · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2025
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › statistical inference › bayesian inference
posterior inference
0.312025
Combining Climate Models using Bayesian Regression Trees and Random Paths · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2025

Methods — techniques the papers use, named apart from their topics

semivariogram · 1.7random path assignments · 1.7posterior projection · 1.7bayesian additive regression trees · 1.7
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2025 Combining Climate Models using Bayesian Regression Trees and Random Paths
abstract
General circulation models (GCMs) are essential tools for climate studies. Such climate models may have varying accuracy across the input domain, but no model is uniformly best. One can improve climate model prediction performance by integrating multiple models using input-dependent weights. Weight functions modeled using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) were recently shown to be useful in nuclear physics applications. However, a restriction of that approach was the piecewise constant weight functions. To smoothly integrate multiple climate models, we propose a new tree-based model, Random Path BART (RPBART), that incorporates random path assignments in BART to produce smooth weight functions and smooth predictions, all in a matrix-free formulation. RPBART requires a more complex prior specification, for which we introduce a semivariogram to guide hyperparameter selection. This approach is easy to interpret, computationally cheap, and avoids expensive cross-validation. Finally, we propose a posterior projection technique to enable detailed analysis of the fitted weight functions. This allows us to identify a sparse set of climate models that recovers the underlying system within a given spatial region as well as quantifying model discrepancy given the available model set. Our method is demonstrated on an ensemble of 8 GCMs modeling average monthly surface temperature.
John C. Yannotty, Thomas J. Santner, Matthew T. Pratola
J. Mach. Learn. Res.1