Minimizing the energy consumed by heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems of residential buildings without impacting occupants’ comfort has been highlighted as an important artificial intelligence (AI) challenge. Typically, approaches that seek to address this challenge use a model that captures the thermal dynamics within a building, also referred to as a thermal model. Among thermal models, gray-box models are a popular choice for modeling the thermal dynamics of buildings. They combine knowledge of the physical structure of a building with various data-driven inputs and are accurate estimators of the state (internal temperature). However, existing gray-box models require a detailed specification of all the physical elements that can affect the thermal dynamics of a building a priori. This limits their applicability, particularly in residential buildings, where additional dynamics can be induced by human activities such as cooking, which contributes additional heat, or opening of windows, which leads to additional leakage of heat. Since the incidence of these additional dynamics is rarely known, their combined effects cannot readily be accommodated within existing models. To overcome this limitation and improve the general applicability of gray-box models, we introduce a novel model, which we refer to as a latent force thermal model of the thermal dynamics of a building, or LFM-TM. Our model is derived from an existing gray-box thermal model, which is augmented with an extra term referred to as the learned residual. This term is capable of modeling the effect of any a priori unknown additional dynamic, which, if not captured, appears as a structure in a thermal model’s residual (the error induced by the model). More importantly, the learned residual can also capture the effects of physical elements such as a building’s envelope or the lags in a heating system, leading to a significant reduction in complexity compared to existing models. To evaluate the performance of LFM-TM, we apply it to two independent data sources. The first is an established dataset, referred to as the FlexHouse data, which was previously used for evaluating the efficacy of existing gray-box models [Bacher and Madsen 2011]. The second dataset consists of heating data logged within homes located on the University of Southampton campus, which were specifically instrumented to collect data for our thermal modeling experiments. On both datasets, we show that LFM-TM outperforms existing models in its ability to accurately fit the observed data, generate accurate day-ahead internal temperature predictions, and explain a large amount of the variability in the future observations. This, along with the fact that we also use a corresponding efficient sequential inference scheme for LFM-TM, makes it an ideal candidate for model-based predictive control, where having accurate online predictions of internal temperatures is essential for high-quality solutions.

Non-intrusive appliance load monitoring is the process of disaggregating a household's total electricity consumption into its contributing appliances. In this paper we propose an approach by which individual appliances can be iteratively separated from an aggregate load. Unlike existing approaches, our approach does not require training data to be collected by sub-metering individual appliances, nor does it assume complete knowledge of the appliances present in the household. Instead, we propose an approach in which prior models of general appliance types are tuned to specific appliance instances using only signatures extracted from the aggregate load. The tuned appliance models are then used to estimate each appliance's load, which is subsequently subtracted from the aggregate load. This process is applied iteratively until all appliances for which prior behaviour models are known have been disaggregated. We evaluate the accuracy of our approach using the REDD data set, and show the disaggregation performance when using our training approach is comparable to when sub-metered training data is used. We also present a deployment of our system as a live application and demonstrate the potential for personalised energy saving feedback.