Effective modelling of large-scale spatio-temporal datasets is essential for many domains, yet existing approaches often impose rigid constraints on the input data, such as requiring them to lie on fixed-resolution grids. With the rise of foundation models, the ability to process diverse, heterogeneous data structures is becoming increasingly important. Neural processes (NPs), particularly transformer neural processes (TNPs), offer a promising framework for such tasks, but struggle to scale to large spatio-temporal datasets due to the lack of an efficient attention mechanism. To address this, we introduce gridded pseudo-token TNPs which employ specialised encoders and decoders to handle unstructured data and utilise a processor comprising gridded pseudo-tokens with efficient attention mechanisms. Furthermore, we develop equivariant gridded TNPs for applications where exact or approximate translation equivariance is a useful inductive bias, improving accuracy and training efficiency. Our method consistently outperforms a range of strong baselines in various synthetic and real-world regression tasks involving large-scale data, while maintaining competitive computational efficiency. Experiments with weather data highlight the potential of gridded TNPs and serve as just one example of a domain where they can have a significant impact.

In scientific domains---from biology to the social sciences---many questions boil down to \textit{What effect will we observe if we intervene on a particular variable?} If the causal relationships (e.g.~a causal graph) are known, its possible to estimate the intervention distributions. In the absence of this domain knowledge, the causal structure must be discovered from the available observational data. However, observational data are often compatible with multiple causal graphs, making methods that commit to a single structure prone to overconfidence. A principled way to manage this structural uncertainty is via Bayesian inference, which averages over a posterior distribution on possible causal structures and functional mechanisms. Unfortunately, the number of causal structures grows super-exponentially with the number of nodes in the graph, making computations intractable. We propose to circumvent these challenges by using meta-learning to create an end-to-end model: the Model-Averaged Causal Estimation Transformer Neural Process (MACE-TNP). The model is trained to predict the Bayesian model-averaged interventional posterior distribution, and its end-to-end nature bypasses the need for expensive calculations. Empirically, we demonstrate that MACE-TNP outperforms strong Bayesian baselines. Our work established meta-learning as a flexible and scalable paradigm for approximating complex Bayesian causal inference, that can be scaled to increasingly challenging settings in the future.

The effectiveness of neural processes (NPs) in modelling posterior prediction maps—the mapping from data to posterior predictive distributions—has significantly improved since their inception. This improvement can be attributed to two principal factors: (1) advancements in the architecture of permutation invariant set functions, which are intrinsic to all NPs; and (2) leveraging symmetries present in the true posterior predictive map, which are problem dependent. Transformers are a notable development in permutation invariant set functions, and their utility within NPs has been demonstrated through the family of models we refer to as TNPs. Despite significant interest in TNPs, little attention has been given to incorporating symmetries. Notably, the posterior prediction maps for data that are stationary—a common assumption in spatio-temporal modelling—exhibit translation equivariance. In this paper, we introduce of a new family of translation equivariant TNPs that incorporate translation equivariance. Through an extensive range of experiments on synthetic and real-world spatio-temporal data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of TE-TNPs relative to their non-translation-equivariant counterparts and other NP baselines.

Equivariant deep learning architectures exploit symmetries in learning problems to improve the sample efficiency of neural-network-based models and their ability to generalise. However, when modelling real-world data, learning problems are often not *exactly* equivariant, but only approximately. For example, when estimating the global temperature field from weather station observations, local topographical features like mountains break translation equivariance. In these scenarios, it is desirable to construct architectures that can flexibly depart from exact equivariance in a data-driven way. Current approaches to achieving this cannot usually be applied out-of-the-box to any architecture and symmetry group. In this paper, we develop a general approach to achieving this using existing equivariant architectures. Our approach is agnostic to both the choice of symmetry group and model architecture, making it widely applicable. We consider the use of approximately equivariant architectures in neural processes (NPs), a popular family of meta-learning models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a number of synthetic and real-world regression experiments, showing that approximately equivariant NP models can outperform both their non-equivariant and strictly equivariant counterparts.

Modelling partial differential equations (PDEs) is of crucial importance in science and engineering, and it includes tasks ranging from forecasting to inverse problems, such as data assimilation. However, most previous numerical and machine learning approaches that target forecasting cannot be applied out-of-the-box for data assimilation. Recently, diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool for conditional generation, being able to flexibly incorporate observations without retraining. In this work, we perform a comparative study of score-based diffusion models for forecasting and assimilation of sparse observations. In particular, we focus on diffusion models that are either trained in a conditional manner, or conditioned after unconditional training. We address the shortcomings of existing models by proposing 1) an autoregressive sampling approach, that significantly improves performance in forecasting, 2) a new training strategy for conditional score-based models that achieves stable performance over a range of history lengths, and 3) a hybrid model which employs flexible pre-training conditioning on initial conditions and flexible post-training conditioning to handle data assimilation. We empirically show that these modifications are crucial for successfully tackling the combination of forecasting and data assimilation, a task commonly encountered in real-world scenarios.