Modern language‑model deployments must often balance competing objectives—for example, helpfulness versus harmlessness, cost versus accuracy, and reward versus safety. We introduce Conformal Arbitrage, a post‑hoc framework that learns a data‑driven threshold to mediate between a Primary model optimized for a primary objective and a more conservative Guardian—which could be another model or a human domain expert—aligned with a guardrail objective. The threshold is calibrated with conformal risk control, yielding finite‑sample, distribution‑free guarantees that the long‑run frequency of undesirable events (such as factual errors or safety violations) does not exceed a user‑specified quota. Because Conformal Arbitrage operates wholly at the API level—without requiring access to model logits or updating model weights—it complements weight‑based alignment techniques and integrates seamlessly with existing cost‑aware cascades. Empirically, Conformal Arbitrage traces an efficient frontier, allowing users to define an acceptable performance level for one objective while maximizing utility in another. We observe that our method outperforms (in terms of accuracy) cost-matched random routing between models. These properties make Conformal Arbitrage a practical, theoretically grounded tool for trustworthy and economical deployment of large language models across a broad range of potentially competing objectives.

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit can influence outcomes for others through direct or indirect interactions. Such interference can lead to biased treatment effect estimates, particularly when the structure of these interactions is unknown. We address this challenge by introducing a new class of estimators based on causal message-passing, specifically designed for settings with pervasive, unknown interference. Our estimator draws on information from the sample mean and variance of unit outcomes and treatments over time, enabling efficient use of observed data to estimate the evolution of the system state. Concretely, we construct non-linear features from the moments of unit outcomes and treatments and then learn a function that maps these features to future mean and variance of unit outcomes. This allows for the estimation of the treatment effect over time. Extensive simulations across multiple domains, using synthetic and real network data, demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in estimating total treatment effect dynamics, even in cases where interference exhibits non-monotonic behavior in the probability of treatment.

AI model alignment is crucial due to inadvertent biases in training data and the underspecified machine learning pipeline, where models with excellent test metrics may not meet end-user requirements. While post-training alignment via human feedback shows promise, these methods are often limited to generative AI settings where humans can interpret and provide feedback on model outputs. In traditional non-generative settings with numerical or categorical outputs, detecting misalignment through single-sample outputs remains challenging, and enforcing alignment during training requires repeating costly training processes. In this paper we consider an alternative strategy. We propose interpreting model alignment through property testing, defining an aligned model $f$ as one belonging to a subset $\mathcal{P}$ of functions that exhibit specific desired behaviors. We focus on post-processing a pre-trained model $f$ to better align with $\mathcal{P}$ using conformal risk control. Specifically, we develop a general procedure for converting queries for testing a given property $\mathcal{P}$ to a collection of loss functions suitable for use in a conformal risk control algorithm. We prove a probabilistic guarantee that the resulting conformal interval around $f$ contains a function approximately satisfying $\mathcal{P}$. We exhibit applications of our methodology on a collection of supervised learning datasets for (shape-constrained) properties such as monotonicity and concavity. The general procedure is flexible and can be applied to a wide range of desired properties. Finally, we prove that pre-trained models will always require alignment techniques even as model sizes or training data increase, as long as the training data contains even small biases.