OBJECTIVE: The study sought to build predictive models of next menstrual cycle start date based on mobile health self-tracked cycle data. Because app users may skip tracking, disentangling physiological patterns of menstruation from tracking behaviors is necessary for the development of predictive models. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We use data from a popular menstrual tracker (186 000 menstruators with over 2 million tracked cycles) to learn a predictive model, which (1) accounts explicitly for self-tracking adherence; (2) updates predictions as a given cycle evolves, allowing for interpretable insight into how these predictions change over time; and (3) enables modeling of an individual's cycle length history while incorporating population-level information. RESULTS: Compared with 5 baselines (mean, median, convolutional neural network, recurrent neural network, and long short-term memory network), the model yields better predictions and consistently outperforms them as the cycle evolves. The model also provides predictions of skipped tracking probabilities. DISCUSSION: Mobile health apps such as menstrual trackers provide a rich source of self-tracked observations, but these data have questionable reliability, as they hinge on user adherence to the app. By taking a machine learning approach to modeling self-tracked cycle lengths, we can separate true cycle behavior from user adherence, allowing for more informed predictions and insights into the underlying observed data structure. CONCLUSIONS: Disentangling physiological patterns of menstruation from adherence allows for accurate and informative predictions of menstrual cycle start date and is necessary for mobile tracking apps. The proposed predictive model can support app users in being more aware of their self-tracking behavior and in better understanding their cycle dynamics.

In many biomedical, science, and engineering problems, one must sequentially decide which action to take next so as to maximize rewards. One general class of algorithms for optimizing interactions with the world, while simultaneously learning how the world operates, is the multi-armed bandit setting and, in particular, the contextual bandit case. In this setting, for each executed action, one observes rewards that are dependent on a given ’context’, available at each interaction with the world. The Thompson sampling algorithm has recently been shown to enjoy provable optimality properties for this set of problems, and to perform well in real-world settings. It facilitates generative and interpretable modeling of the problem at hand. Nevertheless, the design and complexity of the model limit its application, since one must both sample from the distributions modeled and calculate their expected rewards. We here show how these limitations can be overcome using variational inference to approximate complex models, applying to the reinforcement learning case advances developed for the inference case in the machine learning community over the past two decades. We consider contextual multi-armed bandit applications where the true reward distribution is unknown and complex, which we approximate with a mixture model whose parameters are inferred via variational inference. We show how the proposed variational Thompson sampling approach is accurate in approximating the true distribution, and attains reduced regrets even with complex reward distributions. The proposed algorithm is valuable for practical scenarios where restrictive modeling assumptions are undesirable.

Gene regulatory circuits must contend with intrinsic noise that arises due to finite numbers of proteins. While some circuits act to reduce this noise, others appear to exploit it. A striking example is the competence circuit in Bacillus subtilis, which exhibits much larger noise in the duration of its competence events than a synthetically constructed analog that performs the same function. Here, using stochastic modeling and fluorescence microscopy, we show that this larger noise allows cells to exit terminal phenotypic states, which expands the range of stress levels to which cells are responsive and leads to phenotypic heterogeneity at the population level. This is an important example of how noise confers a functional benefit in a genetic decision-making circuit.

BACKGROUND: Single-molecule techniques have emerged as incisive approaches for addressing a wide range of questions arising in contemporary biological research [Trends Biochem Sci 38:30-37, 2013; Nat Rev Genet 14:9-22, 2013; Curr Opin Struct Biol 2014, 28C:112-121; Annu Rev Biophys 43:19-39, 2014]. The analysis and interpretation of raw single-molecule data benefits greatly from the ongoing development of sophisticated statistical analysis tools that enable accurate inference at the low signal-to-noise ratios frequently associated with these measurements. While a number of groups have released analysis toolkits as open source software [J Phys Chem B 114:5386-5403, 2010; Biophys J 79:1915-1927, 2000; Biophys J 91:1941-1951, 2006; Biophys J 79:1928-1944, 2000; Biophys J 86:4015-4029, 2004; Biophys J 97:3196-3205, 2009; PLoS One 7:e30024, 2012; BMC Bioinformatics 288 11(8):S2, 2010; Biophys J 106:1327-1337, 2014; Proc Int Conf Mach Learn 28:361-369, 2013], it remains difficult to compare analysis for experiments performed in different labs due to a lack of standardization. RESULTS: Here we propose a standardized single-molecule dataset (SMD) file format. SMD is designed to accommodate a wide variety of computer programming languages, single-molecule techniques, and analysis strategies. To facilitate adoption of this format we have made two existing data analysis packages that are used for single-molecule analysis compatible with this format. CONCLUSION: Adoption of a common, standard data file format for sharing raw single-molecule data and analysis outcomes is a critical step for the emerging and powerful single-molecule field, which will benefit both sophisticated users and non-specialists by allowing standardized, transparent, and reproducible analysis practices.

We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we consider single-molecule experiments which indirectly measure the distinct steps in a biomolecular process via observations of noisy time-dependent signals such as a fluorescence intensity or bead position. Straightforward hidden Markov model (HMM) analyses attempt to characterize such processes in terms of a set of conformational states, the transitions that can occur between these states, and the associated rates at which those transitions occur; but require ad-hoc post-processing steps to combine multiple signals. Here we develop a hierarchically coupled HMM that allows experimentalists to deal with inter-signal variability in a principled and automatic way. Our approach is a generalized expectation maximization hyperparameter point estimation procedure with variational Bayes at the level of individual time series that learns an single interpretable representation of the overall data generating process.

In this letter, we borrow from the inference techniques developed for unbounded state-cardinality (nonparametric) variants of the HMM and use them to develop a tuning-parameter free, black-box inference procedure for explicit-state-duration hidden Markov models (EDHMM). EDHMMs are HMMs that have latent states consisting of both discrete state-indicator and discrete state-duration random variables. In contrast to the implicit geometric state duration distribution possessed by the standard HMM, EDHMMs allow the direct parameterization and estimation of per-state duration distributions. As most duration distributions are defined over the positive integers, truncation or other approximations are usually required to perform EDHMM inference.

BACKGROUND: The recent explosion of experimental techniques in single molecule biophysics has generated a variety of novel time series data requiring equally novel computational tools for analysis and inference. This article describes in general terms how graphical modeling may be used to learn from biophysical time series data using the variational Bayesian expectation maximization algorithm (VBEM). The discussion is illustrated by the example of single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET) versus time data, where the smFRET time series is modeled as a hidden Markov model (HMM) with Gaussian observables. A detailed description of smFRET is provided as well. RESULTS: The VBEM algorithm returns the model's evidence and an approximating posterior parameter distribution given the data. The former provides a metric for model selection via maximum evidence (ME), and the latter a description of the model's parameters learned from the data. ME/VBEM provide several advantages over the more commonly used approach of maximum likelihood (ML) optimized by the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm, the most important being a natural form of model selection and a well-posed (non-divergent) optimization problem. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrate the utility of graphical modeling for inference of dynamic processes in single molecule biophysics.

Min-cut clustering, based on minimizing one of two heuristic cost functions proposed by Shi and Malik nearly a decade ago, has spawned tremendous research, both analytic and algorithmic, in the graph partitioning and image segmentation communities over the last decade. It is, however, unclear if these heuristics can be derived from a more general principle, facilitating generalization to new problem settings. Motivated by an existing graph partitioning framework, we derive relationships between optimizing relevance information, as defined in the Information Bottleneck method, and the regularized cut in a K-partitioned graph. For fast-mixing graphs, we show that the cost functions introduced by Shi and Malik can be well approximated as the rate of loss of predictive information about the location of random walkers on the graph. For graphs drawn from a generative model designed to describe community structure, the optimal information-theoretic partition and the optimal min-cut partition are shown to be the same with high probability.

A key problem in understanding transcriptional regulatory networks is deciphering what cis regulatory logic is encoded in gene promoter sequences and how this sequence information maps to expression. A typical computational approach to this problem involves clustering genes by their expression profiles and then searching for overrepresented motifs in the promoter sequences of genes in a cluster. However, genes with similar expression profiles may be controlled by distinct regulatory programs. Moreover, if many gene expression profiles in a data set are highly correlated, as in the case of whole organism developmental time series, it may be difficult to resolve fine-grained clusters in the first place. We present a predictive framework for modeling the natural flow of information, from promoter sequence to expression, to learn cis regulatory motifs and characterize gene expression patterns in developmental time courses. We introduce a cluster-free algorithm based on a graph-regularized version of partial least squares (PLS) regression to learn sequence patterns--represented by graphs of k-mers, or "graph-mers"--that predict gene expression trajectories. Applying the approach to wildtype germline development in Caenorhabditis elegans, we found that the first and second latent PLS factors mapped to expression profiles for oocyte and sperm genes, respectively. We extracted both known and novel motifs from the graph-mers associated to these germline-specific patterns, including novel CG-rich motifs specific to oocyte genes. We found evidence supporting the functional relevance of these putative regulatory elements through analysis of positional bias, motif conservation and in situ gene expression. This study demonstrates that our regression model can learn biologically meaningful latent structure and identify potentially functional motifs from subtle developmental time course expression data.

BACKGROUND: We have recently introduced a predictive framework for studying gene transcriptional regulation in simpler organisms using a novel supervised learning algorithm called GeneClass. GeneClass is motivated by the hypothesis that in model organisms such as Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we can learn a decision rule for predicting whether a gene is up- or down-regulated in a particular microarray experiment based on the presence of binding site subsequences ("motifs") in the gene's regulatory region and the expression levels of regulators such as transcription factors in the experiment ("parents"). GeneClass formulates the learning task as a classification problem--predicting +1 and -1 labels corresponding to up- and down-regulation beyond the levels of biological and measurement noise in microarray measurements. Using the Adaboost algorithm, GeneClass learns a prediction function in the form of an alternating decision tree, a margin-based generalization of a decision tree. METHODS: In the current work, we introduce a new, robust version of the GeneClass algorithm that increases stability and computational efficiency, yielding a more scalable and reliable predictive model. The improved stability of the prediction tree enables us to introduce a detailed post-processing framework for biological interpretation, including individual and group target gene analysis to reveal condition-specific regulation programs and to suggest signaling pathways. Robust GeneClass uses a novel stabilized variant of boosting that allows a set of correlated features, rather than single features, to be included at nodes of the tree; in this way, biologically important features that are correlated with the single best feature are retained rather than decorrelated and lost in the next round of boosting. Other computational developments include fast matrix computation of the loss function for all features, allowing scalability to large datasets, and the use of abstaining weak rules, which results in a more shallow and interpretable tree. We also show how to incorporate genome-wide protein-DNA binding data from ChIP chip experiments into the GeneClass algorithm, and we use an improved noise model for gene expression data. RESULTS: Using the improved scalability of Robust GeneClass, we present larger scale experiments on a yeast environmental stress dataset, training and testing on all genes and using a comprehensive set of potential regulators. We demonstrate the improved stability of the features in the learned prediction tree, and we show the utility of the post-processing framework by analyzing two groups of genes in yeast--the protein chaperones and a set of putative targets of the Nrg1 and Nrg2 transcription factors--and suggesting novel hypotheses about their transcriptional and post-transcriptional regulation. Detailed results and Robust GeneClass source code is available for download from http://www.cs.columbia.edu/compbio/robust-geneclass.

BACKGROUND: Elucidating gene regulatory networks is crucial for understanding normal cell physiology and complex pathologic phenotypes. Existing computational methods for the genome-wide "reverse engineering" of such networks have been successful only for lower eukaryotes with simple genomes. Here we present ARACNE, a novel algorithm, using microarray expression profiles, specifically designed to scale up to the complexity of regulatory networks in mammalian cells, yet general enough to address a wider range of network deconvolution problems. This method uses an information theoretic approach to eliminate the majority of indirect interactions inferred by co-expression methods. RESULTS: We prove that ARACNE reconstructs the network exactly (asymptotically) if the effect of loops in the network topology is negligible, and we show that the algorithm works well in practice, even in the presence of numerous loops and complex topologies. We assess ARACNE's ability to reconstruct transcriptional regulatory networks using both a realistic synthetic dataset and a microarray dataset from human B cells. On synthetic datasets ARACNE achieves very low error rates and outperforms established methods, such as Relevance Networks and Bayesian Networks. Application to the deconvolution of genetic networks in human B cells demonstrates ARACNE's ability to infer validated transcriptional targets of the cMYC proto-oncogene. We also study the effects of misestimation of mutual information on network reconstruction, and show that algorithms based on mutual information ranking are more resilient to estimation errors. CONCLUSION: ARACNE shows promise in identifying direct transcriptional interactions in mammalian cellular networks, a problem that has challenged existing reverse engineering algorithms. This approach should enhance our ability to use microarray data to elucidate functional mechanisms that underlie cellular processes and to identify molecular targets of pharmacological compounds in mammalian cellular networks.

Our goal is to cluster genes into transcriptional modules--sets of genes where similarity in expression is explained by common regulatory mechanisms at the transcriptional level. We want to learn modules from both time series gene expression data and genome-wide motif data that are now readily available for organisms such as S. cereviseae as a result of prior computational studies or experimental results. We present a generative probabilistic model for combining regulatory sequence and time series expression data to cluster genes into coherent transcriptional modules. Starting with a set of motifs representing known or putative regulatory elements (transcription factor binding sites) and the counts of occurrences of these motifs in each gene's promoter region, together with a time series expression profile for each gene, the learning algorithm uses expectation maximization to learn module assignments based on both types of data. We also present a technique based on the Jensen-Shannon entropy contributions of motifs in the learned model for associating the most significant motifs to each module. Thus, the algorithm gives a global approach for associating sets of regulatory elements to "modules" of genes with similar time series expression profiles. The model for expression data exploits our prior belief of smooth dependence on time by using statistical splines and is suitable for typical time course data sets with relatively few experiments. Moreover, the model is sufficiently interpretable that we can understand how both sequence data and expression data contribute to the cluster assignments, and how to interpolate between the two data sources. We present experimental results on the yeast cell cycle to validate our method and find that our combined expression and motif clustering algorithm discovers modules with both coherent expression and similar motif patterns, including binding motifs associated to known cell cycle transcription factors.

BACKGROUND: Recent genomic and bioinformatic advances have motivated the development of numerous network models intending to describe graphs of biological, technological, and sociological origin. In most cases the success of a model has been evaluated by how well it reproduces a few key features of the real-world data, such as degree distributions, mean geodesic lengths, and clustering coefficients. Often pairs of models can reproduce these features with indistinguishable fidelity despite being generated by vastly different mechanisms. In such cases, these few target features are insufficient to distinguish which of the different models best describes real world networks of interest; moreover, it is not clear a priori that any of the presently-existing algorithms for network generation offers a predictive description of the networks inspiring them. RESULTS: We present a method to assess systematically which of a set of proposed network generation algorithms gives the most accurate description of a given biological network. To derive discriminative classifiers, we construct a mapping from the set of all graphs to a high-dimensional (in principle infinite-dimensional) "word space". This map defines an input space for classification schemes which allow us to state unambiguously which models are most descriptive of a given network of interest. Our training sets include networks generated from 17 models either drawn from the literature or introduced in this work. We show that different duplication-mutation schemes best describe the E. coli genetic network, the S. cerevisiae protein interaction network, and the C. elegans neuronal network, out of a set of network models including a linear preferential attachment model and a small-world model. CONCLUSIONS: Our method is a first step towards systematizing network models and assessing their predictability, and we anticipate its usefulness for a number of communities.