Spectral estimators are fundamental in low-rank matrix models and arise throughout machine learning and statistics, with applications including network analysis, matrix completion and PCA. These estimators aim to recover the leading eigenvalues and eigenvectors of an unknown signal matrix observed subject to noise. While extensive research has addressed the statistical accuracy of spectral estimators under a variety of conditions, most previous work has assumed that the signal eigenvectors are incoherent with respect to the standard basis. This assumption typically arises because of suboptimal dependence on coherence in one or more concentration inequalities. Using a new matrix concentration result that may be of independent interest, we establish estimation error bounds for eigenvector and eigenvalue recovery whose dependence on coherence significantly improves upon prior work. Our results imply that coherence-free bounds can be achieved when the standard deviation of the noise is comparable to its Orlicz 1-norm (i.e., its subexponential norm). This matches known minimax lower bounds under Gaussian noise up to logarithmic factors.

We develop a method to decompose causal effects on a social network into an indirect effect mediated by the network, and a direct effect independent of the social network. To handle the complexity of network structures, we assume that latent social groups act as causal mediators. We develop principal components network regression models to differentiate the social effect from the non-social effect. Fitting the regression models is as simple as principal components analysis followed by ordinary least squares estimation. We prove asymptotic theory for regression coefficients from this procedure and show that it is widely applicable, allowing for a variety of distributions on the regression errors and network edges. We carefully characterize the counterfactual assumptions necessary to use the regression models for causal inference, and show that current approaches to causal network regression may result in over-control bias. The method is very general, so that it is applicable to many types of structured data beyond social networks, such as text, areal data, psychometrics, images and omics.

Spectral methods are widely used to estimate eigenvectors of a low-rank signal matrix subject to noise. These methods use the leading eigenspace of an observed matrix to estimate this low-rank signal. Typically, the entrywise estimation error of these methods depends on the coherence of the low-rank signal matrix with respect to the standard basis. In this work, we present a novel method for eigenvector estimation that avoids this dependence on coherence. Assuming a rank-one signal matrix, under mild technical conditions, the entrywise estimation error of our method provably has no dependence on the coherence under Gaussian noise (i.e., in the spiked Wigner model), and achieves the optimal estimation rate up to logarithmic factors. Simulations demonstrate that our method performs well under non-Gaussian noise and that an extension of our method to the case of a rank-$r$ signal matrix has little to no dependence on the coherence. In addition, we derive new metric entropy bounds for rank-$r$ singular subspaces under $\ell_{2,\infty}$ distance, which may be of independent interest. We use these new bounds to improve the best known lower bound for rank-$r$ eigenspace estimation under $\ell_{2,\infty}$ distance.