Applications in sustainability domains such as in energy, transportation, and natural resource and environment monitoring, increasingly use sensors for collecting data and sending it back to centrally located processing nodes. While data can usually be collected by the sensors at a very high speed, in many cases, it can not be sent back to central nodes at a frequency that is required for fast and real-time modeling and decision-making. This may be due to physical limitations of the transmission networks, or due to consumers limiting frequent transmission of data from sensors located at their premises for security and privacy concerns. We propose a novel solution to the problem of making short term predictions in absence of real-time data from sensors. A key implication of our work is that by using real-time data from only a small subset of influential sensors, we are able to make predictions for all sen- sors. We evaluated our approach with a large real-world electricity consumption data collected from smart meters in Los Angeles and the results show that between prediction horizons of 2 to 8 hours, despite lack of real time data, our influence model outperforms the baseline model that uses real-time data. Also, when using partial real-time data from only ≈ 7% influential smart meters, we witness prediction error increase by only ≈ 0.5% over the baseline, thus demonstrating the usefulness of our method for practical scenarios.

The performance of prediction models is often based on “abstract metrics” that estimate the model's ability to limit residual errors between the observed and predicted values. However, meaningful evaluation and selection of prediction models for end-user domains requires holistic and application-sensitive performance measures. Inspired by energy consumption prediction models used in the emerging “big data” domain of Smart Power Grids, we propose a suite of performance measures to rationally compare models along the dimensions of scale independence, reliability, volatility and cost. We include both application independent and dependent measures, the latter parameterized to allow customization by domain experts to fit their scenario. While our measures are generalizable to other domains, we offer an empirical analysis using real energy use data for three Smart Grid applications: planning, customer education and demand response, which are relevant for energy sustainability. Our results underscore the value of the proposed measures to offer a deeper insight into models' behavior and their impact on real applications, which benefit both data mining researchers and practitioners.

Big data applications such as in smart electric grids, transportation, and remote environment monitoring involve geographically dispersed sensors that periodically send back information to central nodes. In many cases, data from sensors is not available at central nodes at a frequency that is required for real-time modeling and decision-making. This may be due to physical limitations of the transmission networks, or due to consumers limiting frequent transmission of data from sensors located at their premises for security and privacy concerns. Such scenarios lead to partial data problem and raise the issue of data veracity in big data applications. We describe a novel solution to the problem of making short term predictions (up to a few hours ahead) in absence of real-time data from sensors in Smart Grid. A key implication of our work is that by using real-time data from only a small subset of influential sensors, we are able to make predictions for all sensors. We thus reduce the communication complexity involved in transmitting sensory data in Smart Grids. We use real-world electricity consumption data from smart meters to empirically demonstrate the usefulness of our method. Our dataset consists of data collected at 15-min intervals from 170 smart meters in the USC Microgrid for 7 years, totaling 41,697,600 data points.