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Christopher Sullivan

dblp:410/3869 · DBLP profile ↗
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1ranked-venue papers
0as first author
1since 2021 · last 2025
0000-0001-6107-0182ORCID · reported

Domains — the database's venue-derived domains; a paper can count in several

Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 1 · 1 since 2021Theory of computation · 1 · 1 since 2021

Expertise — from the expertise taxonomy: the topics of the expert's papers under the CCF categories. A weight counts papers with recency: 1 for a paper about the topic, 0.3 when the topic is its context, halved every five years.

Interdisciplinary, comprehensive, and emerging computing
1 paper
Computational finance and economics · 50% Computational social science and digital humanities · 50%

Topics — the 1 heaviest of 2, each with the papers that count most for it

TopicWeightPapersLastEvidence papers
Computational social science and digital humanities › causal inference
counterfactual inference
0.912025
Enhancing the Merger Simulation Toolkit with ML/AI · EC 2025

Methods — techniques the papers use, named apart from their topics

variational method of moments · 0.9nonparametric supply estimation · 0.9monte carlo simulation · 0.9
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2025 Enhancing the Merger Simulation Toolkit with ML/AI
abstract
This paper develops a flexible approach to predict the price effects of horizontal mergers using ML/AI methods. While standard merger simulation techniques rely on restrictive assumptions about firm conduct, we propose a data-driven framework that relaxes these constraints when rich market data are available. We develop and identify a flexible nonparametric model of supply that nests a broad range of conduct models and cost functions. To overcome the curse of dimensionality, we adapt the Variational Method of Moments (VMM) [Bennett and Kallus, 2023] to estimate the model, allowing for various forms of strategic interaction. Monte Carlo simulations show that our method significantly outperforms an array of misspecified models and rivals the performance of the true model, both in test sample prediction and in counterfactual merger simulations. As a way to interpret the economics of the estimated supply function, we simulate pass-through and find that the model learns markup and cost functions that imply approximately correct pass-through. Applied to the American Airlines-US Airways merger, our method produces more accurate post-merger price predictions than traditional approaches. The results demonstrate the potential for ML/AI techniques to enhance merger analysis while maintaining (nonparametric) structure from economics.
Harold D. Chiang, Jack Collison, Lorenzo Magnolfi, Christopher Sullivan
EC4