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Johan de Aguas

dblp:413/3632 · DBLP profile ↗
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2ranked-venue papers
2as first author
2since 2021 · last 2026
—ORCID · unresolved

Domains — the database's venue-derived domains; a paper can count in several

Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 2 · 2 first-author · 2 since 2021Graphics, computer vision, multimedia, augmented reality and games · 1 · 1 first-author · 1 since 2021

Expertise — from the expertise taxonomy: the topics of the expert's papers under the CCF categories. A weight counts papers with recency: 1 for a paper about the topic, 0.3 when the topic is its context, halved every five years.

Artificial intelligence
1 paper
Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning · 100%

Topics — the 2 heaviest of 2, each with the papers that count most for it

TopicWeightPapersLastEvidence papers
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning
causal inference
1.012026
Interpolated Stochastic Interventions Based on Propensity Scores, Target Policies and Treatment-Specific Costs · AAAI 2026
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning
efficient influence function
1.012026
Interpolated Stochastic Interventions Based on Propensity Scores, Target Policies and Treatment-Specific Costs · AAAI 2026

Methods — techniques the papers use, named apart from their topics

semiparametric efficiency theory · 1.0propensity score · 1.0information projection · 1.0boltzmann-gibbs coupling · 1.0
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2026 Interpolated Stochastic Interventions Based on Propensity Scores, Target Policies and Treatment-Specific Costs
abstract
We introduce two families of stochastic interventions with discrete treatments that connect causal modeling to cost-sensitive decision making. The interventions arise from a cost-penalized information projection of the independent product of the organic propensity scores and a reference policy, yielding closed-form Boltzmann-Gibbs couplings. The induced marginals define modified stochastic policies that interpolate smoothly, via a tilt parameter, from the organic law or from the reference law toward a product-of-experts limit when all destination costs are strictly positive. The first family recovers and extends incremental propensity score interventions, retaining identification without global positivity. For inference on the expected outcomes after these policies, we derive the efficient influence functions under a nonparametric model and construct one-step estimators. In simulations, the proposed estimators improve stability and robustness to nuisance misspecification relative to plug-in baselines. The framework can operationalize graded scientific hypotheses under realistic constraints. Because inputs are modular, analysts can sweep feasible policy spaces, prototype candidates, and align interventions with budgets and logistics before committing experimental resources.
Johan de Aguas
AAAI1
2025 Causal Inference amid Missingness-Specific Independences and Mechanism Shifts
abstract
The recovery of causal effects in structural models with missing data often relies on $m$-graphs, which assume that missingness mechanisms do not directly influence substantive variables. Yet, in many real-world settings, missing data can alter decision-making processes, as the absence of key information may affect downstream actions and states. To overcome this limitation, we introduce $lm$-SCMs and $lm$-graphs, which extend $m$-graphs by integrating a label set that represents relevant context-specific independencies (CSI), accounting for mechanism shifts induced by missingness. We define two causal effects within these systems: the Full Average Treatment Effect (FATE), which reflects the effect in a hypothetical scenario had no data been missing, and the Natural Average Treatment Effect (NATE), which captures the effect under the unaltered CSIs in the system. We propose recovery criteria for these queries and present doubly-robust estimators for a graphical model inspired by a real-world application. Simulations highlight key differences between these estimands and estimation methods. Findings from the application case suggest a small effect of ADHD treatment upon test achievement among Norwegian children, with a slight effect shift due to missing pre-tests scores.
Johan de Aguas, Leonard Henckel, Johan Pensar, Guido Biele
UAI1