Real-time Bidding (RTB) advertisers wish to know in advance the expected cost and yield of ad campaigns to avoid trial-and-error expenses.However, Campaign Performance Forecasting (CPF), a sequence modeling task involving tens of thousands of ad auctions, poses challenges of evolving user interest, auction representation, and long context, making coarse-grained and static-modeling methods sub-optimal.We propose AdVance, a time-aware framework that integrates local auction-level and global campaign-level modeling.User preference and fatigue are disentangled using a timepositioned sequence of clicked items and a concise vector of all displayed items.Cross-attention, conditioned on the fatigue vector, captures the dynamics of user interest toward each candidate ad.Bidders compete with each other, presenting a complete graph similar to the self-attention mechanism.Hence, we employ a Transformer Encoder to compress each auction into embedding by solving auxiliary tasks.These sequential embeddings are then summarized by a conditional state space model (SSM) to comprehend long-range dependencies while maintaining global linear complexity.Considering the irregular time intervals between auctions, we

The diverse advertiser demands (brand effects or immediate outcomes) lead to distinct selling (pre-agreed volumes with an under-delivery penalty or compete per auction) and pricing (fixed prices or varying bids) patterns in Guaranteed delivery (GD) and real-time bidding (RTB) advertising. This necessitates fair impression allocation to unify the two markets for promoting ad content diversity and overall revenue. Existing approaches often deprive RTB ads of equal exposure opportunities by prioritizing GD ads, and coarse-grained methods are inferior to 1) Ambiguous reward due to varied objectives and constraints of GD fulfillment and RTB utility, hindering measurement of each allocation's contribution to the global interests; 2) Intensified competition by the coexistence of GD and RTB ads, complicating their mutual relationships; 3) Policy degradation caused by evolving user traffic and bid landscape, requiring adaptivity to distribution shifts.

User impression forecasting underpins various commercial activities, from long-term strategic decisions to short-term automated operations. As a representative that involves both kinds, the highly profitable Guaranteed Delivery (GD) advertising focuses mainly on promoting brand effect by allowing advertisers to order target impressions weeksin advance and get allocatedonline at the scheduled time. Such a business mode naturally incurs three issues making existing solutions inferior: 1) Timescale-granularity dilemma of coherently supporting the sales of day-level impressions of the distant future and the corresponding fine-grained allocation in real-time. 2) High dimensionality due to the Cartesian product of user attribute combinations. 3) Stability-plasticity dilemma of instant adaptation to emerging patterns of temporal dependency withoutcatastrophic forgetting of repeated ones facing the non-stationary traffic.

Guaranteed delivery (GD) and real-time bidding (RTB) constitute two parallel profit streams for the publisher. The diverse advertiser demands (brand or instant effect) result in different selling (in bulk or via auction) and pricing (fixed unit price or various bids) patterns, which naturally raises the fusion allocation issue of breaking the two markets' barrier and selling out at the global highest price boosting the total revenue. The fusion process complicates the competition between GD and RTB, and GD contracts with overlapping targeting. The non-stationary user traffic and bid landscape further worsen the situation, making the assignment unsupervised and hard to evaluate. Thus, a static policy or coarse-grained modeling from existing work is inferior to facing the above challenges.