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Huimei Shi

dblp:422/5995 · DBLP profile ↗
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1ranked-venue papers
0as first author
1since 2021 · last 2026
—ORCID · none

Domains — the database's venue-derived domains; a paper can count in several

Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 1 · 1 since 2021Graphics, computer vision, multimedia, augmented reality and games · 1 · 1 since 2021

Expertise — from the expertise taxonomy: the topics of the expert's papers under the CCF categories. A weight counts papers with recency: 1 for a paper about the topic, 0.3 when the topic is its context, halved every five years.

Artificial intelligence
1 paper
Time series and sequential data · 67% Deep learning architectures and training · 33%

Topics — the 3 heaviest of 3, each with the papers that count most for it

TopicWeightPapersLastEvidence papers
Machine learning › Deep learning architectures and training
loss function design
1.012026
Beyond MSE: Ordinal Cross-Entropy for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting · AAAI 2026
Machine learning › Time series and sequential data › time series modeling
probabilistic forecasting
1.012026
Beyond MSE: Ordinal Cross-Entropy for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting · AAAI 2026
Machine learning › Time series and sequential data › time series analysis
time series forecasting
1.012026
Beyond MSE: Ordinal Cross-Entropy for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting · AAAI 2026

Methods — techniques the papers use, named apart from their topics

parametric distribution · 1.0ordinal classification · 1.0influence functions · 1.0
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2026 Beyond MSE: Ordinal Cross-Entropy for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
abstract
Time series forecasting is an important task that involves analyzing temporal dependencies and underlying patterns (such as trends, cyclicality, and seasonality) in historical data to predict future values or trends. Current deep learning-based forecasting models primarily employ Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss functions for regression modeling. Despite enabling direct value prediction, this method offers no uncertainty estimation and exhibits poor outlier robustness. To address these limitations, we propose OCE-TS, a novel ordinal classification approach for time series forecasting that replaces MSE with Ordinal Cross-Entropy (OCE) loss, preserving prediction order while quantifying uncertainty through probability output. Specifically, OCE-TS begins by discretizing observed values into ordered intervals and deriving their probabilities via a parametric distribution as supervision signals. Using a simple linear model, we then predict probability distributions for each timestep. The OCE loss is computed between the cumulative distributions of predicted and ground-truth probabilities, explicitly preserving ordinal relationships among forecasted values. Through theoretical analysis using influence functions, we establish that cross-entropy (CE) loss exhibits superior stability and outlier robustness compared to MSE loss. Empirically, we compared OCE-TS with five baseline models—Autoformer, DLinear, iTransformer, TimeXer, and TimeBridge—on seven public time series datasets. Using MSE and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as evaluation metrics, the results demonstrate that OCE-TS consistently outperforms benchmark models.
Jieting Wang, Huimei Shi, Feijiang Li, Xiaolei Shang
AAAI2