Structural Equation/Causal Models (SEMs/SCMs) are widely used in epidemiology and social sciences to identify and analyze the average causal effect (ACE) and conditional ACE (CACE). Traditional causal effect estimation methods such as Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) and more recently Regression-With-Residuals (RWR) are widely used - as they avoid the challenging task of identifying the SCM parameters - to estimate ACE and CACE. However, much work remains before traditional estimation methods can be used for counterfactual inference, and for the benefit of Personalized Public Policy Analysis (P3A) in the social sciences. While doctors rely on personalized medicine to tailor treatments to patients in laboratory settings (relatively closed systems), P3A draws inspiration from such tailoring but adapts it for open social systems. In this article, we develop a method for counterfactual inference that we name causal-Graphical Normalizing Flow (c-GNF), facilitating P3A. A major advantage of c-GNF is that it suits the open system in which P3A is conducted. First, we show how c-GNF captures the underlying SCM without making any assumption about functional forms. This capturing capability is enabled by the deep neural networks that model the underlying SCM via observational data likelihood maximization using gradient descent. Second, we propose a novel dequantization trick to deal with discrete variables, which is a limitation of normalizing flows in general. Third, we demonstrate in experiments that c-GNF performs on-par with IPW and RWR in terms of bias and variance for estimating the ATE, when the true functional forms are known, and better when they are unknown. Fourth and most importantly, we conduct counterfactual inference with c-GNFs, demonstrating promising empirical performance. Because IPW and RWR, like other traditional methods, lack the capability of counterfactual inference, c-GNFs will likely play a major role in tailoring personalized treatment, facilitating P3A, optimizing social interventions - in contrast to the current `one-size-fits-all' approach of existing methods.

We apply Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to approximately calculate some quantities, and discuss their implications for learning directed and acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data. Specifically, we calculate the approximate ratio of essential graphs (EGs) to DAGs for up to 31 nodes. Our ratios suggest that the average Markov equivalence class is small. We show that a large majority of the classes seem to have a size that is close to the average size. This suggests that one should not expect more than a moderate gain in efficiency when searching the space of EGs instead of the space of DAGs. We also calculate the approximate ratio of connected EGs to connected DAGs, of connected EGs to EGs, and of connected DAGs to DAGs. These new ratios are interesting because, as we will see, the DAG or EG learnt from some given data is likely to be connected. Furthermore, we prove that the latter ratio is asymptotically 1. Finally, we calculate the approximate ratio of EGs to largest chain graphs for up to 25 nodes. Our ratios suggest that Lauritzen–Wermuth–Frydenberg chain graphs are considerably more expressive than DAGs. We also report similar approximate ratios and conclusions for multivariate regression chain graphs.

This paper presents and proves an extension of Meek’s conjecture to chain graphs under the Lauritzen-Wermuth-Frydenberg interpretation. The proof of the conjecture leads to the development of a structure learning algorithm that finds an inclusion optimal chain graph for any given probability distribution satisfying the composition property. Finally, the new algorithm is experimentally evaluated.

Suppose that multiple experts (or learning algorithms) provide us with alternative Bayesian network (BN) structures over a domain, and that we are interested in combining them into a single consensus BN structure. Specifically, we are interested in that the consensus BN structure only represents independences all the given BN structures agree upon and that it has as few parameters associated as possible. In this paper, we prove that there may exist several non-equivalent consensus BN structures and that finding one of them is NP-hard. Thus, we decide to resort to heuristics to find an approximated consensus BN structure. In this paper, we consider the heuristic proposed by Matzkevich and Abramson, which builds upon two algorithms, called Methods A and B, for efficiently deriving the minimal directed independence map of a BN structure relative to a given node ordering. Methods A and B are claimed to be correct although no proof is provided (a proof is just sketched). In this paper, we show that Methods A and B are not correct and propose a correction of them.

Consider a classification problem involving only discrete features that are represented as random variables with some prescribed discrete sample space. In this paper, we study the complexity of two feature selection problems. The first problem consists in finding a feature subset of a given size k that has minimal Bayes risk. We show that for any increasing ordering of the Bayes risks of the feature subsets (consistent with an obvious monotonicity constraint), there exists a probability distribution that exhibits that ordering. This implies that solving the first problem requires an exhaustive search over the feature subsets of size k. The second problem consists of finding the minimal feature subset that has minimal Bayes risk. In the light of the complexity of the first problem, one may think that solving the second problem requires an exhaustive search over all of the feature subsets. We show that, under mild assumptions, this is not true. We also study the practical implications of our solutions to the second problem.

BACKGROUND: Gene expression is governed by complex networks, and differences in expression patterns between distinct biological conditions may therefore be complex and multivariate in nature. Yet, current statistical methods for detecting differential expression merely consider the univariate difference in expression level of each gene in isolation, thus potentially neglecting many genes of biological importance. RESULTS: We have developed a novel algorithm for detecting multivariate expression patterns, named Recursive Independence Test (RIT). This algorithm generalizes differential expression testing to more complex expression patterns, while still including genes found by the univariate approach. We prove that RIT is consistent and controls error rates for small sample sizes. Simulation studies confirm that RIT offers more power than univariate differential expression analysis when multivariate effects are present. We apply RIT to gene expression data sets from diabetes and cancer studies, revealing several putative disease genes that were not detected by univariate differential expression analysis. CONCLUSION: The proposed RIT algorithm increases the power of gene expression analysis by considering multivariate effects while retaining error rate control, and may be useful when conventional differential expression tests yield few findings.

Many optimization problems are what can be called globally multimodal, i.e., they present several global optima. Unfortunately, this is a major source of difficulties for most estimation of distribution algorithms, making their effectiveness and efficiency degrade, due to genetic drift. With the aim of overcoming these drawbacks for discrete globally multimodal problem optimization, this paper introduces and evaluates a new estimation of distribution algorithm based on unsupervised learning of Bayesian networks. We report the satisfactory results of our experiments with symmetrical binary optimization problems.

This paper proposes using estimation of distribution algorithms for unsupervised learning of Bayesian networks, directly as well as within the framework of the Bayesian structural EM algorithm. Both approaches are empirically evaluated in synthetic and real data. Specifically, the evaluation in real data consists in the application of this paper's proposals to gene expression data clustering, i.e., the identification of clusters of genes with similar expression profiles across samples, for the leukemia database. The validation of the clusters of genes that are identified suggests that these may be biologically meaningful.

This paper introduces a novel enhancement for unsupervised learning of conditional Gaussian networks that benefits from feature selection. Our proposal is based on the assumption that, in the absence of labels reflecting the cluster membership of each case of the database, those features that exhibit low correlation with the rest of the features can be considered irrelevant for the learning process. Thus, we suggest performing this process using only the relevant features. Then, every irrelevant feature is added to the learned model to obtain an explanatory model for the original database which is our primary goal. A simple and, thus, efficient measure to assess the relevance of the features for the learning process is presented. Additionally, the form of this measure allows us to calculate a relevance threshold to automatically identify the relevant features. The experimental results reported for synthetic and real-world databases show the ability of our proposal to distinguish between relevant and irrelevant features and to accelerate learning, while still obtaining good explanatory models for the original database.