In this study, we propose a novel rule-based interpretable choice model, {\bf Logic-Logit}, designed to effectively learn and explain human choices. Choice models have been widely applied across various domains—such as commercial demand forecasting, recommendation systems, and consumer behavior analysis—typically categorized as parametric, nonparametric, or deep network-based. While recent innovations have favored neural network approaches for their computational power, these flexible models often involve large parameter sets and lack interpretability, limiting their effectiveness in contexts where transparency is essential. Previous empirical evidence shows that individuals usually use {\it heuristic decision rules} to form their consideration sets, from which they then choose. These rules are often represented as {\it disjunctions of conjunctions} (i.e., OR-of-ANDs). These rules-driven, {\it consider-then-choose} decision processes enable people to quickly screen numerous alternatives while reducing cognitive and search costs. Motivated by this insight, our approach leverages logic rules to elucidate human choices, providing a fresh perspective on preference modeling. We introduce a unique combination of column generation techniques and the Frank-Wolfe algorithm to facilitate efficient rule extraction for preference modeling—a process recognized as NP-hard. Our empirical evaluation, conducted on both synthetic datasets and real-world data from commercial and healthcare domains, demonstrates that Logic-Logit significantly outperforms baseline models in terms of interpretability and accuracy.

We study convergence properties of the discrete-time Mean-Field Langevin Stochastic Gradient Descent-Ascent (MFL-SGDA) algorithm for solving distributional minimax optimization. These problems arise in various applications, such as zero-sum games, generative adversarial networks and distributionally robust learning. Despite the significance of MFL-SGDA in these contexts, the discrete-time convergence rate remains underexplored. To address this gap, we establish a last-iterate convergence rate of $O(\frac{1}{\epsilon}\log\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ for MFL-SGDA. This rate is nearly optimal when compared to the complexity lower bound of its Euclidean counterpart. This rate also matches the complexity of mean-field Langevin stochastic gradient descent for distributional minimization and the outer-loop iteration complexity of an existing double-loop algorithm for distributional minimax problems. By leveraging an elementary analysis framework that avoids PDE-based techniques, we overcome previous limitations and achieve a faster convergence rate.

Understanding human mental states—such as intentions and desires—is crucial for natural AI-human collaboration. However, this is challenging because human actions occur irregularly over time, and the underlying mental states that drive these actions are unobserved. To tackle this, we propose a novel framework that combines a logic-informed temporal point process (TPP) with amortized variational Expectation-Maximization (EM). Our key innovation is integrating logic rules as priors to guide the TPP’s intensity function, allowing the model to capture the interplay between actions and mental events while reducing dependence on large datasets. To handle the intractability of mental state inference, we introduce a discrete-time renewal process to approximate the posterior. By jointly optimizing model parameters, logic rules, and inference networks, our approach infers entire mental event sequences and adaptively predicts future actions. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that our method outperforms existing approaches in accurately inferring mental states and predicting actions, demonstrating its effectiveness in modeling human cognitive processes.

Modeling human decision-making is central to applications such as recommendation, preference learning, and human-AI alignment. While many classic models assume context-independent choice behavior, a large body of behavioral research shows that preferences are often influenced by the composition of the choice set itself---a phenomenon known as the context effect or Halo effect. These effects can manifest as pairwise (first-order) or even higher-order interactions among the available alternatives. Recent models that attempt to capture such effects either focus on the featureless setting or, in the feature-based setting, rely on restrictive interaction structures or entangle interactions across all orders, which limits interpretability. In this work, we propose DeepHalo, a neural modeling framework that incorporates features while enabling explicit control over interaction order and principled interpretation of context effects. Our model enables systematic identification of interaction effects by order and serves as a universal approximator of context-dependent choice functions when specialized to a featureless setting. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate strong predictive performance while providing greater transparency into the drivers of choice.

Discrete choice models are fundamental for predicting how individuals select among alternatives based on their preferences and the attributes of the options. Traditional Random Utility Models assume stochastic rationality, often failing to capture context-dependent behavior—where the presence of certain alternatives alters the perceived utility of others.

Multivariate Hawkes processes are classic temporal point process models for event data. These models are simple and parametric in nature, offering interpretability by capturing the triggering effects between event types. However, these parametric models often struggle with low model capacity, limiting their expressive power to capture heterogeneous data patterns influenced by latent variables. In this paper, we propose a simple yet powerful extension: the Flow-based Delayed Hawkes Process, which integrates Normalizing Flows as a generative model to parameterize the Hawkes process. By generating all model parameters through the flow-based network, our approach significantly improves flexibility and expressiveness while preserving interpretability. We provide theoretical guarantees by proving the identifiability of the model parameters and the consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator under mild assumptions. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that our model outperforms existing baselines in capturing intricate and heterogeneous event dynamics.

In high-stakes systems such as healthcare, it is critical to understand the causal reasons behind unusual events, such as sudden changes in patient’s health. Unveiling the causal reasons helps with quick diagnoses and precise treatment planning. In this paper, we propose an automated method for uncovering “if-then” logic rules to explain observational events. We introduce {\it temporal point processes} to model the events of interest, and discover the set of latent rules to explain the occurrence of events. To achieve this goal, we employ an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. In the E-step, we calculate the posterior probability of each event being explained by each discovered rule. In the M-step, we update both the rule set and model parameters to enhance the likelihood function’s lower bound. Notably, we will optimize the rule set in a {\it differential} manner. Our approach demonstrates accurate performance in both discovering rules and identifying root causes. We showcase its promising results using synthetic and real healthcare datasets.

We present a systematic framework designed to enhance human-robot perception and collaboration through the integration of logical rules and Theory of Mind (ToM). Logical rules provide interpretable predictions and generalize well across diverse tasks, making them valuable for learning and decision-making. Leveraging the ToM for understanding others' mental states, our approach facilitates effective collaboration. In this paper, we employ logic rules derived from observational data to infer human goals and guide human-like agents. These rules are treated as latent variables, and a rule encoder is trained alongside a multi-agent system in the robot's mind. We assess the posterior distribution of latent rules using learned embeddings, representing entities and relations. Confidence scores for each rule indicate their consistency with observed data. Then, we employ a hierarchical reinforcement learning model with ToM to plan robot actions for assisting humans. Extensive experiments validate each component of our framework, and results on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our model outperforms the majority of existing approaches.

Excitatory point processes (i.e., event flows) occurring over dynamic graphs (i.e., evolving topologies) provide a fine-grained model to capture how discrete events may spread over time and space. How to effectively steer the event flows by modifying the dynamic graph structures presents an interesting problem, motivated by curbing the spread of infectious diseases through strategically locking down cities to mitigating traffic congestion via traffic light optimization. To address the intricacies of planning and overcome the high dimensionality inherent to such decision-making problems, we design an Amortized Network Interventions (ANI) framework, allowing for the pooling of optimal policies from history and other contexts while ensuring a permutation equivalent property. This property enables efficient knowledge transfer and sharing across diverse contexts. Each task is solved by an H-step lookahead model-based reinforcement learning, where neural ODEs are introduced to model the dynamics of the excitatory point processes. Instead of simulating rollouts from the dynamics model, we derive an analytical mean-field approximation for the event flows given the dynamics, making the online planning more efficiently solvable. We empirically illustrate that this ANI approach substantially enhances policy learning for unseen dynamics and exhibits promising outcomes in steering event flows through network intervention using synthetic and real COVID datasets.

Modern high-stakes systems, such as healthcare or robotics, often generate vast streaming event sequences. Our goal is to design an efficient, plug-and-play tool to elicit logic tree-based explanations from Large Language Models (LLMs) to provide customized insights into each observed event sequence. Built on the temporal point process model for events, our method employs the likelihood function as a score to evaluate generated logic trees. We propose an amortized Expectation-Maximization (EM) learning framework and treat the logic tree as latent variables. In the E-step, we evaluate the posterior distribution over the latent logic trees using an LLM prior and the likelihood of the observed event sequences. LLM provides a high-quality prior for the latent logic trees, however, since the posterior is built over a discrete combinatorial space, we cannot get the closed-form solution. We propose to generate logic tree samples from the posterior using a learnable GFlowNet, which is a diversity-seeking generator for structured discrete variables. The M-step employs the generated logic rules to approximate marginalization over the posterior, facilitating the learning of model parameters and refining the tunable LLM prior parameters. In the online setting, our locally built, lightweight model will iteratively extract the most relevant rules from LLMs for each sequence using only a few iterations. Empirical demonstrations showcase the promising performance and adaptability of our framework.

Our goal is to $\textit{efficiently}$ discover a compact set of temporal logic rules to explain irregular events of interest. We introduce a neural-symbolic rule induction framework within the temporal point process model. The negative log-likelihood is the loss that guides the learning, where the explanatory logic rules and their weights are learned end-to-end in a $\textit{differentiable}$ way. Specifically, predicates and logic rules are represented as $\textit{vector embeddings}$, where the predicate embeddings are fixed and the rule embeddings are trained via gradient descent to obtain the most appropriate compositional representations of the predicate embeddings. To make the rule learning process more efficient and flexible, we adopt a $\textit{sequential covering algorithm}$, which progressively adds rules to the model and removes the event sequences that have been explained until all event sequences have been covered. All the found rules will be fed back to the models for a final rule embedding and weight refinement. Our approach showcases notable efficiency and accuracy across synthetic and real datasets, surpassing state-of-the-art baselines by a wide margin in terms of efficiency.

We propose an interpretable model to uncover the behavioral patterns of human movements by analyzing their trajectories. Our approach is based on the belief that human actions are driven by intentions and are influenced by environmental factors such as spatial relationships with surrounding objects. To model this, we use a set of spatial-temporal logic rules that include intention variables as principles. These rules are automatically discovered and used to capture the dynamics of human actions. To learn the model parameters and rule content, we design an EM learning algorithm that treats the unknown rule content as a latent variable. In the E-step, we evaluate the posterior over the latent rule content, and in the M-step, we optimize the rule generator and model parameters by maximizing the expected log-likelihood. Our model has wide-ranging applications in areas such as sports analytics, robotics, and autonomous cars. We demonstrate the model's superior interpretability and prediction performance on both pedestrian and NBA basketball player datasets, achieving promising results.

We present a novel Neural Embedding Spatio-Temporal (NEST) point process model for spatio-temporal discrete event data and develop an efficient imitation learning (a type of reinforcement learning) based approach for model fitting. Despite the rapid development of one-dimensional temporal point processes for discrete event data, the study of spatial-temporal aspects of such data is relatively scarce. Our model captures complex spatio-temporal dependence between discrete events by carefully design a mixture of heterogeneous Gaussian diffusion kernels, whose parameters are parameterized by neural networks. This new kernel is the key that our model can capture intricate spatial dependence patterns and yet still lead to interpretable results as we examine maps of Gaussian diffusion kernel parameters. The imitation learning model fitting for the NEST is more robust than the maximum likelihood estimate. It directly measures the divergence between the empirical distributions between the training data and the model-generated data. Moreover, our imitation learning-based approach enjoys computational efficiency due to the explicit characterization of the reward function related to the likelihood function; furthermore, the likelihood function under our model enjoys tractable expression due to Gaussian kernel parameterization. Experiments based on real data show our method’s good performance relative to the state-of-the-art and the good interpretability of NEST’s result.

Dynamic graphs such as the user-item interactions graphs and financial transaction networks are ubiquitous nowadays. While numerous representation learning methods for static graphs have been proposed, the study of dynamic graphs is still in its infancy. A main challenge of modeling dynamic graphs is how to effectively encode temporal and structural information into nonlinear and compact dynamic embeddings. To achieve this, we propose a principled graph-neural-based approach to learn continuous-time dynamic embeddings. We first define a temporal dependency interaction graph(TDIG) that is induced from sequences of interaction data. Based on the topology of this TDIG, we develop a dynamic message passing neural network named TDIG-MPNN, which can capture the fine-grained global and local information on TDIG. In addition, to enhance the quality of continuous-time dynamic embeddings, a novel selection mechanism comprised of two successive steps, i.e., co-attention and gating, is applied before the above TDIG-MPNN layer to adjust the importance of the nodes by considering high-order correlation between interactive nodes' k-depth neighbors on TDIG. Finally, we cast our learning problem in the framework of temporal point processes (TPPs) where we use TDIG-MPNN to design a neural intensity function for the dynamic interaction processes. Our model achieves superior performance over alternatives on temporal interaction prediction (including tranductive and inductive tasks) on multiple datasets.

We propose a modeling framework for event data and aim to answer questions such as \emph{when} and \emph{why} the next event would happen. Our proposed model excels in small data regime with the ability to incorporate domain knowledge in terms of logic rules. We model the dynamics of the event starts and ends via intensity function with the structures informed by a set of first-order temporal logic rules. Using the softened representation of temporal relations, and a weighted combination of logic rules, our probabilistic model can deal with uncertainty in events. Furthermore, many well-known point processes (e.g., Hawkes process, self-correcting point process) can be interpreted as special cases of our model given simple temporal logic rules. Our model, therefore, riches the family of point processes. We derive a maximum likelihood estimation procedure for our model and show that it can lead to accurate predictions when data are sparse and domain knowledge is critical.

There are great interests as well as many challenges in applying reinforcement learning (RL) to recommendation systems. In this setting, an online user is the environment; neither the reward function nor the environment dynamics are clearly defined, making the application of RL challenging. In this paper, we propose a novel model-based reinforcement learning framework for recommendation systems, where we develop a generative adversarial network to imitate user behavior dynamics and learn her reward function. Using this user model as the simulation environment, we develop a novel Cascading DQN algorithm to obtain a combinatorial recommendation policy which can handle a large number of candidate items efficiently. In our experiments with real data, we show this generative adversarial user model can better explain user behavior than alternatives, and the RL policy based on this model can lead to a better long-term reward for the user and higher click rate for the system.

Social goods, such as healthcare, smart city, and information networks, often produce ordered event data in continuous time. The generative processes of these event data can be very complex, requiring flexible models to capture their dynamics. Temporal point processes offer an elegant framework for modeling event data without discretizing the time. However, the existing maximum-likelihood-estimation (MLE) learning paradigm requires hand-crafting the intensity function beforehand and cannot directly monitor the goodness-of-fit of the estimated model in the process of training. To alleviate the risk of model-misspecification in MLE, we propose to generate samples from the generative model and monitor the quality of the samples in the process of training until the samples and the real data are indistinguishable. We take inspiration from reinforcement learning (RL) and treat the generation of each event as the action taken by a stochastic policy. We parameterize the policy as a flexible recurrent neural network and gradually improve the policy to mimic the observed event distribution. Since the reward function is unknown in this setting, we uncover an analytic and nonparametric form of the reward function using an inverse reinforcement learning formulation. This new RL framework allows us to derive an efficient policy gradient algorithm for learning flexible point process models, and we show that it performs well in both synthetic and real data.

We propose the first multistage intervention framework that tackles fake news in social networks by combining reinforcement learning with a point process network activity model. The spread of fake news and mitigation events within the network is modeled by a multivariate Hawkes process with additional exogenous control terms. By choosing a feature representation of states, defining mitigation actions and constructing reward functions to measure the effectiveness of mitigation activities, we map the problem of fake news mitigation into the reinforcement learning framework. We develop a policy iteration method unique to the multivariate networked point process, with the goal of optimizing the actions for maximal reward under budget constraints. Our method shows promising performance in real-time intervention experiments on a Twitter network to mitigate a surrogate fake news campaign, and outperforms alternatives on synthetic datasets.

Information diffusion in online social networks is affected by the underlying network topology, but it also has the power to change it. Online users are constantly creating new links when exposed to new information sources, and in turn these links are alternating the way information spreads. However, these two highly intertwined stochastic processes, information diffusion and network evolution, have been predominantly studied separately, ignoring their co-evolutionary dynamics. We propose a temporal point process model, Coevolve, for such joint dynamics, allowing the intensity of one process to be modulated by that of the other. This model allows us to efficiently simulate interleaved diffusion and network events, and generate traces obeying common diffusion and network patterns observed in real-world networks such as Twitter. Furthermore, we also develop a convex optimization framework to learn the parameters of the model from historical diffusion and network evolution traces. We experimented with both synthetic data and data gathered from Twitter, and show that our model provides a good fit to the data as well as more accurate predictions than alternatives.

Information diffusion in online social networks is affected by the underlying network topology, but it also has the power to change it. Online users are constantly creating new links when exposed to new information sources, and in turn these links are alternating the way information spreads. However, these two highly intertwined stochastic processes, information diffusion and network evolution, have been predominantly studied separately, ignoring their co-evolutionary dynamics.We propose a temporal point process model, COEVOLVE, for such joint dynamics, allowing the intensity of one process to be modulated by that of the other. This model allows us to efficiently simulate interleaved diffusion and network events, and generate traces obeying common diffusion and network patterns observed in real-world networks. Furthermore, we also develop a convex optimization framework to learn the parameters of the model from historical diffusion and network evolution traces. We experimented with both synthetic data and data gathered from Twitter, and show that our model provides a good fit to the data as well as more accurate predictions than alternatives.

Detecting the emergence of an abrupt change-point is a classic problem in statistics and machine learning. Kernel-based nonparametric statistics have been proposed for this task which make fewer assumptions on the distributions than traditional parametric approach. However, none of the existing kernel statistics has provided a computationally efficient way to characterize the extremal behavior of the statistic. Such characterization is crucial for setting the detection threshold, to control the significance level in the offline case as well as the average run length in the online case. In this paper we propose two related computationally efficient M-statistics for kernel-based change-point detection when the amount of background data is large. A novel theoretical result of the paper is the characterization of the tail probability of these statistics using a new technique based on change-of-measure. Such characterization provides us accurate detection thresholds for both offline and online cases in computationally efficient manner, without the need to resort to the more expensive simulations such as bootstrapping. We show that our methods perform well in both synthetic and real world data.

The Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model (CT-HMM) is an attractive approach to modeling disease progression due to its ability to describe noisy observations arriving irregularly in time. However, the lack of an efficient parameter learning algorithm for CT-HMM restricts its use to very small models or requires unrealistic constraints on the state transitions. In this paper, we present the first complete characterization of efficient EM-based learning methods for CT-HMM models. We demonstrate that the learning problem consists of two challenges: the estimation of posterior state probabilities and the computation of end-state conditioned statistics. We solve the first challenge by reformulating the estimation problem in terms of an equivalent discrete time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model. The second challenge is addressed by adapting three approaches from the continuous time Markov chain literature to the CT-HMM domain. We demonstrate the use of CT-HMMs with more than 100 states to visualize and predict disease progression using a glaucoma dataset and an Alzheimer's disease dataset.