System modeling and data mining techniques have considerable potential for use in public health informatics. In this paper, we propose a methodology of constructing a parsimonious Takagi-Sugeno (TS) rule model from data in predicting the impacts of child deprivation on education according to the ones of deprivations on health and socioeconomic conditions at a small-area level. In order to identify the most influential TS fuzzy rules, some novel indices for TS fuzzy rule ranking are suggested and named as L-values and ω-values of TS rules respectively. The L-values of TS rules are suggested to identify important rules based on the effects of the local linear models in rule consequent parts. The ω-values of TS rules are defined by considering both the rule base structure and the contribution of the local linear models. The experimental results have shown that by using the proposed indices, the most influential TS fuzzy rules can be effectively selected for a parsimonious TS fuzzy model in predicting the impacts of child deprivation on education at a satisfactory level.

Codon models of evolution have facilitated the interpretation of selective forces operating on genomes. These models, however, assume a single rate of non-synonymous substitution irrespective of the nature of amino acids being exchanged. Recent developments have shown that models which allow for amino acid pairs to have independent rates of substitution offer improved fit over single rate models. However, these approaches have been limited by the necessity for large alignments in their estimation. An alternative approach is to assume that substitution rates between amino acid pairs can be subdivided into rate classes, dependent on the information content of the alignment. However, given the combinatorially large number of such models, an efficient model search strategy is needed. Here we develop a Genetic Algorithm (GA) method for the estimation of such models. A GA is used to assign amino acid substitution pairs to a series of rate classes, where is estimated from the alignment. Other parameters of the phylogenetic Markov model, including substitution rates, character frequencies and branch lengths are estimated using standard maximum likelihood optimization procedures. We apply the GA to empirical alignments and show improved model fit over existing models of codon evolution. Our results suggest that current models are poor approximations of protein evolution and thus gene and organism specific multi-rate models that incorporate amino acid substitution biases are preferred. We further anticipate that the clustering of amino acid substitution rates into classes will be biologically informative, such that genes with similar functions exhibit similar clustering, and hence this clustering will be useful for the evolutionary fingerprinting of genes.

Genetically diverse pathogens (such as Human Immunodeficiency virus type 1, HIV-1) are frequently stratified into phylogenetically or immunologically defined subtypes for classification purposes. Computational identification of such subtypes is helpful in surveillance, epidemiological analysis and detection of novel variants, e.g., circulating recombinant forms in HIV-1. A number of conceptually and technically different techniques have been proposed for determining the subtype of a query sequence, but there is not a universally optimal approach. We present a model-based phylogenetic method for automatically subtyping an HIV-1 (or other viral or bacterial) sequence, mapping the location of breakpoints and assigning parental sequences in recombinant strains as well as computing confidence levels for the inferred quantities. Our Subtype Classification Using Evolutionary ALgorithms (SCUEAL) procedure is shown to perform very well in a variety of simulation scenarios, runs in parallel when multiple sequences are being screened, and matches or exceeds the performance of existing approaches on typical empirical cases. We applied SCUEAL to all available polymerase (pol) sequences from two large databases, the Stanford Drug Resistance database and the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Comparing with subtypes which had previously been assigned revealed that a minor but substantial (approximately 5%) fraction of pure subtype sequences may in fact be within- or inter-subtype recombinants. A free implementation of SCUEAL is provided as a module for the HyPhy package and the Datamonkey web server. Our method is especially useful when an accurate automatic classification of an unknown strain is desired, and is positioned to complement and extend faster but less accurate methods. Given the increasingly frequent use of HIV subtype information in studies focusing on the effect of subtype on treatment, clinical outcome, pathogenicity and vaccine design, the importance of accurate, robust and extensible subtyping procedures is clear.

MOTIVATION: Phylogenetic and evolutionary inference can be severely misled if recombination is not accounted for, hence screening for it should be an essential component of nearly every comparative study. The evolution of recombinant sequences can not be properly explained by a single phylogenetic tree, but several phylogenies may be used to correctly model the evolution of non-recombinant fragments. RESULTS: We developed a likelihood-based model selection procedure that uses a genetic algorithm to search multiple sequence alignments for evidence of recombination breakpoints and identify putative recombinant sequences. GARD is an extensible and intuitive method that can be run efficiently in parallel. Extensive simulation studies show that the method nearly always outperforms other available tools, both in terms of power and accuracy and that the use of GARD to screen sequences for recombination ensures good statistical properties for methods aimed at detecting positive selection. AVAILABILITY: Freely available http://www.datamonkey.org/GARD/

Several codon-based methods are available for detecting adaptive evolution in protein-coding sequences, but to date none specifically identify sites that are selected differentially in two populations, although such comparisons between populations have been historically useful in identifying the action of natural selection. We have developed two fixed effects maximum likelihood methods: one for identifying codon positions showing selection patterns that persist in a population and another for detecting whether selection is operating differentially on individual codons of a gene sampled from two different populations. Applying these methods to two HIV populations infecting genetically distinct human hosts, we have found that few of the positively selected amino acid sites persist in the population; the other changes are detected only at the tips of the phylogenetic tree and appear deleterious in the long term. Additionally, we have identified seven amino acid sites in protease and reverse transcriptase that are selected differentially in the two samples, demonstrating specific population-level adaptation of HIV to human populations.