Modelling multivariate spatio-temporal data with complex dependency structures is a challenging task but can be simplified by assuming that the original variables are generated from independent latent components. If these components are found, they can be modelled univariately. Blind source separation aims to recover the latent components by estimating the unknown linear or nonlinear unmixing transformation based on the observed data only. In this paper, we extend recently introduced identifiable variational autoencoder to the nonlinear nonstationary spatio-temporal blind source separation setting and demonstrate its performance using comprehensive simulation studies. Additionally, we introduce two alternative methods for the latent dimension estimation, which is a crucial task in order to obtain the correct latent representation. Finally, we illustrate the proposed methods using a meteorological application, where we estimate the latent dimension and the latent components, interpret the components, and show how nonstationarity can be accounted and prediction accuracy can be improved by using the proposed nonlinear blind source separation method as a preprocessing method.

This study presents the initial results of the Myopia Risk Calculator (MRC) Consortium, introducing an innovative approach to predict myopia risk by using trustworthy machine-learning models. The dataset included approximately 7,945 records (eyes) from 3,989 children. We developed a myopia risk calculator and an accompanying web interface. Central to our research is the challenge of model trustworthiness, specifically evaluating the effectiveness and robustness of AI (Artificial Intelligence)/ML (Machine Learning)/NLP (Nat-ural Language Processing) models. We adopted a robust methodology combining Monte Carlo simulations with cross-validation techniques to assess model performance. Our experiments revealed that an ensemble of classifiers and regression models with Lasso regression techniques provided the best outcomes for predicting myopia risk. Future research aims to enhance model accuracy by integrating image and synthetic data, including advanced Monte Carlo simulations.

In spatial blind source separation the observed multivariate random fields are assumed to be mixtures of latent spatially dependent random fields. The objective is to recover latent random fields by estimating the unmixing transformation. Currently, the algorithms for spatial blind source separation can only estimate linear unmixing transformations. Nonlinear blind source separation methods for spatial data are scarce. In this paper we extend an identifiable variational autoencoder that can estimate nonlinear unmixing transformations to spatially dependent data and demonstrate its performance for both stationary and nonstationary spatial data using simulations. In addition, we introduce scaled mean absolute Shapley additive explanations for interpreting the latent components through nonlinear mixing transformation. The spatial identifiable variational autoencoder is applied to a geochemical dataset to find the latent random fields, which are then interpreted by using the scaled mean absolute Shapley additive explanations. Finally, we illustrate how the proposed method can be used as a pre-processing method when making multivariate predictions.

Modern science and industry rely on computational models for simulation, prediction, and data analysis. Spatial blind source separation (SBSS) is a model used to analyze spatial data. Designed explicitly for spatial data analysis, it is superior to popular non-spatial methods, like PCA. However, a challenge to its practical use is setting two complex tuning parameters, which requires parameter space analysis. In this paper, we focus on sensitivity analysis (SA). SBSS parameters and outputs are spatial data, which makes SA difficult as few SA approaches in the literature assume such complex data on both sides of the model. Based on the requirements in our design study with statistics experts, we developed a visual analytics prototype for data type agnostic visual sensitivity analysis that fits SBSS and other contexts. The main advantage of our approach is that it requires only dissimilarity measures for parameter settings and outputs (Fig. 1). We evaluated the prototype heuristically with visualization experts and through interviews with two SBSS experts. In addition, we show the transferability of our approach by applying it to microclimate simulations. Study participants could confirm suspected and known parameter-output relations, find surprising associations, and identify parameter subspaces to examine in the future. During our design study and evaluation, we identified challenging future research opportunities.

Analysis of spatial multivariate data, i.e., measurements at irregularly-spaced locations, is a challenging topic in visualization and statistics alike. Such data are inteGral to many domains, e.g., indicators of valuable minerals are measured for mine prospecting. Popular analysis methods, like PCA, often by design do not account for the spatial nature of the data. Thus they, together with their spatial variants, must be employed very carefully. Clearly, it is preferable to use methods that were specifically designed for such data, like spatial blind source separation (SBSS). However, SBSS requires two tuning parameters, which are themselves complex spatial objects. Setting these parameters involves navigating two large and interdependent parameter spaces, while also taking into account prior knowledge of the physical reality represented by the data. To support analysts in this process, we developed a visual analytics prototype. We evaluated it with experts in visualization, SBSS, and geochemistry. Our evaluations show that our interactive prototype allows to define complex and realistic parameter settings efficiently, which was so far impractical. Settings identified by a non-expert led to remarkable and surprising insights for a domain expert. Therefore, this paper presents important first steps to enable the use of a promising analysis method for spatial multivariate data.

Temporal Blind Source Separation (TBSS) is used to obtain the true underlying processes from noisy temporal multivariate data, such as electrocardiograms. TBSS has similarities to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) as it separates the input data into univariate components and is applicable to suitable datasets from various domains, such as medicine, finance, or civil engineering. Despite TBSS’s broad applicability, the involved tasks are not well supported in current tools, which offer only text-based interactions and single static images. Analysts are limited in analyzing and comparing obtained results, which consist of diverse data such as matrices and sets of time series. Additionally, parameter settings have a big impact on separation performance, but as a consequence of improper tooling, analysts currently do not consider the whole parameter space. We propose to solve these problems by applying visual analytics (VA) principles. Our primary contribution is a design study for TBSS, which so far has not been explored by the visualization community. We developed a task abstraction and visualization design in a user-centered design process. Task-specific assembling of well-established visualization techniques and algorithms to gain insights in the TBSS processes is our secondary contribution. We present TBSSvis, an interactive web-based VA prototype, which we evaluated extensively in two interviews with five TBSS experts. Feedback and observations from these interviews show that TBSSvis supports the actual workflow and combination of interactive visualizations that facilitate the tasks involved in analyzing TBSS results.

Multivariate measurements taken at irregularly sampled locations are a common form of data, for example in geochemical analysis of soil. In practical considerations predictions of these measurements at unobserved locations are of great interest. For standard multivariate spatial prediction methods it is mandatory to not only model spatial dependencies but also cross-dependencies which makes it a demanding task. Recently, a blind source separation approach for spatial data was suggested. When using this spatial blind source separation method prior the actual spatial prediction, modelling of spatial cross-dependencies is avoided, which in turn simplifies the spatial prediction task significantly. In this paper we investigate the use of spatial blind source separation as a pre-processing tool for spatial prediction and compare it with predictions from Cokriging and neural networks in an extensive simulation study as well as a geochemical dataset.

BACKGROUND: The current gold standard in dimension reduction methods for high-throughput genotype data is the Principle Component Analysis (PCA). The presence of PCA is so dominant, that other methods usually cannot be found in the analyst's toolbox and hence are only rarely applied. RESULTS: We present a modern dimension reduction method called 'Invariant Coordinate Selection' (ICS) and its application to high-throughput genotype data. The more commonly known Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is in this framework just a special case of ICS. We use ICS on both, a simulated and a real dataset to demonstrate first some deficiencies of PCA and how ICS is capable to recover the correct subgroups within the simulated data. Second, we apply the ICS method on a chicken dataset and also detect there two subgroups. These subgroups are then further investigated with respect to their genotype to provide further evidence of the biological relevance of the detected subgroup division. Further, we compare the performance of ICS also to five other popular dimension reduction methods. CONCLUSION: The ICS method was able to detect subgroups in data where the PCA fails to detect anything. Hence, we promote the application of ICS to high-throughput genotype data in addition to the established PCA. Especially in statistical programming environments like e.g. R, its application does not add any computational burden to the analysis pipeline.

Dimension reduction is often a preliminary step in the analysis of large data sets. The so-called non-Gaussian component analysis searches for a projection onto the non-Gaussian part of the data, and it is then important to know the correct dimension of the non-Gaussian signal subspace. In this letter, we develop asymptotic as well as bootstrap tests for the dimension based on the popular fourth-order blind identification method.

Independent component analysis (ICA) is a widely used signal processing tool having applications in various fields of science. In this paper we focus on affine equivariant ICA methods. Two such well-established estimation methods, FOBI and JADE, diagonalize certain fourth order cumulant matrices to extract the independent components. FOBI uses one cumulant matrix only, and is therefore computationally very fast. However, it is not able to separate identically distributed components which is a major drawback. JADE overcomes this restriction. Unfortunately, JADE uses a huge number of cumulant matrices and is computationally very heavy in high-dimensional cases. In this paper, we hybridize these two methods. The affine equivariant FOBI estimate is used as an initial value for JADE, and only a small subset of most informative cumulant matrices is then diagonalized. In simulation studies we show that the new affine equivariant estimate is almost as good as JADE, and it is computationally much faster.

Abstract Several previous studies have measured differences in the information search success of novices and experts. However, the definitions of novices and experts have varied greatly between the studies, and so have the measures used for search success. Instead of dividing the searchers into different groups based on their expertise, we chose to model search success with task completion speed , TCS. Towards this goal, 22 participants performed three fact‐finding tasks and two broader tasks in an observational user study. In our model, there were two variables related to the Web experience of the participants. Other variables included, for example, the speed of query iteration, the length of the queries, the proportion of precise queries, and the speed of evaluating result documents. Our results showed that the variables related to Web experience had expected effects on TCS. The increase in the years of Web use was related to improvement in TCS in the broader tasks, whereas the less frequent Web use was related to a decrease in TCS in the fact‐finding tasks. Other variables having significant effects on TCS in either of the task types were the speed of composing queries, the average number of query terms per query, the proportion of precise queries, and the participants' own evaluation of their search skills. In addition to the statistical models, we present several qualitative findings of the participants' search strategies. These results give valuable insight into the successful strategies in Web search beyond the previous knowledge of the expert–novice differences.