We develop an approach for Bayesian learning of spatiotemporal dynamical mechanistic models. Such learning consists of statistical emulation of the mechanistic system that can efficiently interpolate the output of the system from arbitrary inputs. The emulated learner can then be used to train the system from noisy data achieved by melding information from observed data with the emulated mechanistic system. This joint melding of mechanistic systems employ hierarchical state-space models with Gaussian process regression. Assuming the dynamical system is controlled by a finite collection of inputs, Gaussian process regression learns the effect of these parameters through a number of training runs, driving the stochastic innovations of the spatiotemporal state-space component. This enables efficient modeling of the dynamics over space and time. This article details exact inference with analytically accessible posterior distributions in hierarchical matrix-variate Normal and Wishart models in designing the emulator. This step obviates expensive iterative algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or variational approximations. We also show how emulation is applicable to large-scale emulation by designing a dynamic Bayesian transfer learning framework. Inference on mechanistic model parameters proceeds using Markov chain Monte Carlo as a post-emulation step using the emulator as a regression component. We demonstrate this framework through solving inverse problems arising in the analysis of ordinary and partial nonlinear differential equations and, in addition, to a black-box computer model generating spatiotemporal dynamics across a graphical model.

Varying coefficient models are popular for estimating nonlinear regression functions in functional data models. Their Bayesian variants have received limited attention in large data applications, primarily due to prohibitively slow posterior computations using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. We introduce Bayesian data sketching for varying coefficient models to obviate computational challenges presented by large sample sizes. To address the challenges of analyzing large data, we compress the functional response vector and predictor matrix by a random linear transformation to achieve dimension reduction and conduct inference on the compressed data. Our approach distinguishes itself from several existing methods for analyzing large functional data in that it requires neither the development of new models or algorithms nor any specialized computational hardware while delivering fully model-based Bayesian inference. Well-established methods and algorithms for varying-coefficient regression models can be applied to the compressed data. We establish posterior contraction rates for estimating the varying coefficients and predicting the outcome at new locations with the randomly compressed data model. We use simulation experiments and analyze remote sensed vegetation data to empirically illustrate the inferential and computational efficiency of our approach.

Gaussian processes are pervasive in functional data analysis, machine learning, and spatial statistics for modeling complex dependencies. Scientific data are often heterogeneous in their inputs and contain multiple known discrete groups of samples; thus, it is desirable to leverage the similarity among groups while accounting for heterogeneity across groups. We propose multi-group Gaussian processes (MGGPs) defined over $\mathbb{R}^p\times \mathscr{C}$, where $\mathscr{C}$ is a finite set representing the group label, by developing general classes of valid (positive definite) covariance functions on such domains. MGGPs are able to accurately recover relationships between the groups and efficiently share strength across samples from all groups during inference, while capturing distinct group-specific behaviors in the conditional posterior distributions. We demonstrate inference in MGGPs through simulation experiments, and we apply our proposed MGGP regression framework to gene expression data to illustrate the behavior and enhanced inferential capabilities of multi-group Gaussian processes by jointly modeling continuous and categorical variables.

Gaussian processes are widely employed as versatile modelling and predictive tools in spatial statistics, functional data analysis, computer modelling and diverse applications of machine learning. They have been widely studied over Euclidean spaces, where they are specified using covariance functions or covariograms for modelling complex dependencies. There is a growing literature on Gaussian processes over Riemannian manifolds in order to develop richer and more flexible inferential frameworks for non-Euclidean data. While numerical approximations through graph representations have been well studied for the Matern covariogram and heat kernel, the behaviour of asymptotic inference on the parameters of the covariogram has received relatively scant attention. We focus on asymptotic behaviour for Gaussian processes constructed over compact Riemannian manifolds. Building upon a recently introduced Matern covariogram on a compact Riemannian manifold, we employ formal notions and conditions for the equivalence of two Matern Gaussian random measures on compact manifolds to derive the parameter that is identifiable, also known as the microergodic parameter, and formally establish the consistency of the maximum likelihood estimate and the asymptotic optimality of the best linear unbiased predictor. The circle is studied as a specific example of compact Riemannian manifolds with numerical experiments to illustrate and corroborate the theory.

We study the impact of a set of industry, firm- and e-commerce-related factors on Internet firm survival. Through the use of one age-based and another calendar time-based Bayesian dynamic model, we are able to examine how the impact of these factors changes over time. Our results are based on data from 115 publicly-traded Internet firms and suggest that Internet firm survival depends on different factors at the different stages in their lifetimes. Early on, an Internet firm's likelihood of survival will be higher when the initial public offerings rate of Internet stocks in the market is high and when the firm has abundant financial capital. As firms grow, their survival is increasingly contingent on their financial capital and size. Our empirical results show that from the beginning of 2001 to the end of 2002, Internet firms experienced increasing pressure on survival from their debts and from labor expenses to pay its senior executives. In addition, Internet firms start to compete based on size in late 2002 as the sector grew. We obtained these findings using new econometric methods from Bayesian statistics.